ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: YAPISAL KIRILMALAR ALTINDA E7 ÜLKELERİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR İNCELEME

Muhammed Tıraşoğlu; Fatih Karasaç

doi:10.17550/akademikincelemeler.430713

Research Article

Middle-Income Trap: An Empirical Analysis for E7 Countries Under Structural Breaks

Year 2018, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 337 - 361, 01.10.2018

Muhammed Tıraşoğlu Fatih Karasaç

https://doi.org/10.17550/akademikincelemeler.430713

Cited By: 6

Abstract

One of the new and interesting topics of the economic literature is middleincome trap. Middle-income trap can be generally defined as middle-income countries showing a slow growth performance, jamming at a certain level of income and can not pass to high income groups. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the E7 (Emerging 7) countries, which have an important place among the developing countries, are in middle-income trap. In this context, Robertson and Ye (2013) approach has been taken into consideration. Empirical analyzes were performed using single and two structural breaks unit root tests. As a result of the analysis, evidence has been obtained that Indonesia, Mexico and Russia that member of E-7 groups, are in the middle-income trap. Brazil, China, India and Turkey are not generally in the middle-income trap.

Keywords

Middle-Income Trap, E7 Countries, Structural Breaks Unit Root Tests

References

Agénor, P. Canuto, O. and Jelenic, M. (2012). Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps, (Number: 98). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Agénor, P. and Canuto, O. (2015). Middle-Income Growth Traps, Research in Economics, 69(4), 641-660.
Aiyar, M. S., Duval, M. R. A., Puy, M. D., Wu, M. Y., and Zhang, M. L. (2013). Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap, (Working Paper / 13 / 71). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Bozkurt, E., Bedir, S., Özdemir, D., ve Çakmak, E. (2014). Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye Örneği, Maliye Dergisi, 167, 22-39.
Bulman, D., Eden, M., ve Nguyen, H. (2014). Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High- Income Growth: Is There a Middle Income Trap, (Policy Research Working Paper 7104). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Dalgıç, B., İyidogan, P., ve Balıkçıoğlu, E. (2014). Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkışta Hangi Faktörler?, Maliye Dergisi, 167, 116-125.
Dickey, D. and Fuller W. (1979). Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
Dickey, D. and Fuller W. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root, Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
Egawa, A. (2013). Will Income Inequality Cause a Middle-income Trap in Asia? (Bruegel Working Paper 2013/06). Brussel: Bruegel.
Eichengreen, B., Park, D., and Shin, K. (2012). When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China. Asian Economic Papers, 11(1), 42-87.
Felipe, J., Abdon, A., and Kumar, U. (2012). Tracking the Middle-income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why? (Working Paper No. 715). New York: Levy Economics Institute.
Gill, I. S., Kharas, H. J., ve Bhattasali, D. (2007). An East Asian renaissance: ideas for economic growth. World Bank Publications.
Gill, I., and Kharas, H. (2015). “The Middle-Incıme Trap Turns Ten”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7403:1-27.
Im, F. G., and Rosenblatt, D. (2013). Middle-Income Traps: A Conceptual and Empirical Survey, (Policy Research Working Paper 6594). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Jankowska, A., Nagengast, A., and Perea, J. R. (2012). The Product Space and the Middleincome Trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences, (Working Paper No. 311). Paris: OECD Development Center.
Koçak, E., ve Bulut, Ü., (2014). Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Teorik Çerçeve, Ampirik Yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama, Maliye Dergisi, Sayı:167, 1-21.
Lee, J. and Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks, The Review of Economcis and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
Lee, J. and Strazicich, M. C. (2004) Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, 1-16. Lumsdaine, R. L. and Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple Trends Breaks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-218.
Maddison, A. (2010). Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2008 AD,Available at: http://www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm (data accessed on 03/01/2018).
Perron, P. (1989). The Great Cash, The Oil Price Shock and The Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica 57(6), 1361-1401.
Robertson, P. E., and Ye, L. (2013). On the Existence of a Middle Income Trap, (Economics Discussion Paper 13.12). Perth: University of Western Australia.
Tiftikçiğil, B. Y., Güriş, B. and Yaşgül, Y. S. (2018). Does Middle Income Trap Exist? Evidence from Emerging Economies: E7 Countries 1969-2015, Revista Galega de Economia, 27(1), 145-162.
Tho, T. (2013). The Middle-Income Trap. Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 29(2), 107-128.
Woo, T. W. (2012). China Meets the Middle-Income Trap: The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4), 313-336.
Yeldan, E. (2012), Türkiye Orta Gelir Tuzağına Yaklaşırken, İktisat ve Toplum, 21-22, 26-30.
Yıldız, F., ve Bayraktar, Y. (2017). Kırılgan Sekizli Ülkelerinin Orta Gelir Tuzağına Uzaklığının Ölçülmesi: Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz. Kırklareli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(5), 110-128.
Yılmaz, G. (2014). Turkish Middle Income Trap and Less Skilled Human Capital, (Working Paper No: 14/30). Ankara: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
Zeng, J., and Fang, Y. (2014), “Between Poverty and Prosperity: China’s Dependent Development and the ‘Middle-Income Trap’”, Third World Quarterly, 35(6), 1014-1031.
Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 25-44.

ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: YAPISAL KIRILMALAR ALTINDA E7 ÜLKELERİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR İNCELEME

Year 2018, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 337 - 361, 01.10.2018

Muhammed Tıraşoğlu Fatih Karasaç

https://doi.org/10.17550/akademikincelemeler.430713

Cited By: 6

Abstract

İktisat literatürünün yeni ve ilgi çeken konularından biri orta gelir tuzağıdır. Orta gelir tuzağı, genel olarak orta gelirli ülkelerin yavaş büyüme performansı sergileyerek belirli gelir seviyesinde sıkışması ve yüksek gelir grubuna geçememesi olarak tanımlanabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, gelişmekte olan ülkeler arasında önemli yere sahip E7 (Gelişen 7) ülkelerinin orta gelir tuzağında olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Bu kapsamda Robertson ve Ye (2013) yaklaşımı dikkate alınmıştır. Ampirik analizler tek ve iki yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda E7 ülke grubunu oluşturan ülkelerden Endonezya, Meksika ve Rusya’nın orta gelir tuzağında olduğu yönünde kanıtlara ulaşılmıştır. Brezilya, Çin, Hindistan ve Türkiye’nin ise genel olarak orta gelir tuzağında olmadığı bulgularına ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Orta Gelir Tuzağı, E7 Ülkeleri, Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök Testleri

References

Agénor, P. Canuto, O. and Jelenic, M. (2012). Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps, (Number: 98). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Agénor, P. and Canuto, O. (2015). Middle-Income Growth Traps, Research in Economics, 69(4), 641-660.
Aiyar, M. S., Duval, M. R. A., Puy, M. D., Wu, M. Y., and Zhang, M. L. (2013). Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap, (Working Paper / 13 / 71). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Bozkurt, E., Bedir, S., Özdemir, D., ve Çakmak, E. (2014). Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Türkiye Örneği, Maliye Dergisi, 167, 22-39.
Bulman, D., Eden, M., ve Nguyen, H. (2014). Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High- Income Growth: Is There a Middle Income Trap, (Policy Research Working Paper 7104). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Dalgıç, B., İyidogan, P., ve Balıkçıoğlu, E. (2014). Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkışta Hangi Faktörler?, Maliye Dergisi, 167, 116-125.
Dickey, D. and Fuller W. (1979). Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
Dickey, D. and Fuller W. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root, Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
Egawa, A. (2013). Will Income Inequality Cause a Middle-income Trap in Asia? (Bruegel Working Paper 2013/06). Brussel: Bruegel.
Eichengreen, B., Park, D., and Shin, K. (2012). When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China. Asian Economic Papers, 11(1), 42-87.
Felipe, J., Abdon, A., and Kumar, U. (2012). Tracking the Middle-income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why? (Working Paper No. 715). New York: Levy Economics Institute.
Gill, I. S., Kharas, H. J., ve Bhattasali, D. (2007). An East Asian renaissance: ideas for economic growth. World Bank Publications.
Gill, I., and Kharas, H. (2015). “The Middle-Incıme Trap Turns Ten”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7403:1-27.
Im, F. G., and Rosenblatt, D. (2013). Middle-Income Traps: A Conceptual and Empirical Survey, (Policy Research Working Paper 6594). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Jankowska, A., Nagengast, A., and Perea, J. R. (2012). The Product Space and the Middleincome Trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences, (Working Paper No. 311). Paris: OECD Development Center.
Koçak, E., ve Bulut, Ü., (2014). Orta Gelir Tuzağı: Teorik Çerçeve, Ampirik Yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama, Maliye Dergisi, Sayı:167, 1-21.
Lee, J. and Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks, The Review of Economcis and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
Lee, J. and Strazicich, M. C. (2004) Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, 1-16. Lumsdaine, R. L. and Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple Trends Breaks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-218.
Maddison, A. (2010). Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2008 AD,Available at: http://www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm (data accessed on 03/01/2018).
Perron, P. (1989). The Great Cash, The Oil Price Shock and The Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica 57(6), 1361-1401.
Robertson, P. E., and Ye, L. (2013). On the Existence of a Middle Income Trap, (Economics Discussion Paper 13.12). Perth: University of Western Australia.
Tiftikçiğil, B. Y., Güriş, B. and Yaşgül, Y. S. (2018). Does Middle Income Trap Exist? Evidence from Emerging Economies: E7 Countries 1969-2015, Revista Galega de Economia, 27(1), 145-162.
Tho, T. (2013). The Middle-Income Trap. Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 29(2), 107-128.
Woo, T. W. (2012). China Meets the Middle-Income Trap: The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4), 313-336.
Yeldan, E. (2012), Türkiye Orta Gelir Tuzağına Yaklaşırken, İktisat ve Toplum, 21-22, 26-30.
Yıldız, F., ve Bayraktar, Y. (2017). Kırılgan Sekizli Ülkelerinin Orta Gelir Tuzağına Uzaklığının Ölçülmesi: Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz. Kırklareli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(5), 110-128.
Yılmaz, G. (2014). Turkish Middle Income Trap and Less Skilled Human Capital, (Working Paper No: 14/30). Ankara: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
Zeng, J., and Fang, Y. (2014), “Between Poverty and Prosperity: China’s Dependent Development and the ‘Middle-Income Trap’”, Third World Quarterly, 35(6), 1014-1031.
Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 25-44.

There are 29 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language	Turkish
Journal Section	Reserch Articles
Authors	Muhammed Tıraşoğlu Fatih Karasaç
Publication Date	October 1, 2018
Submission Date	June 4, 2018
Published in Issue	Year 2018 Volume: 13 Issue: 2

Cite

APA	Tıraşoğlu, M., & Karasaç, F. (2018). ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: YAPISAL KIRILMALAR ALTINDA E7 ÜLKELERİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR İNCELEME. Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi, 13(2), 337-361. https://doi.org/10.17550/akademikincelemeler.430713