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Nüfus, Yaşam Beklentisi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Yöntemi ile Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2023, Volume: 23 Issue: 2, 481 - 500, 04.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1163964

Abstract

Nüfus artışı bir ülke ekonomisi üzerinde önemli etkiye sahiptir. Nüfus artışı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin önemi hem büyüme teorisyenlerince hem de kalkınma iktisatçıları tarafından kabul edilmektedir. Ancak nüfus ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiye yönelik literatürde tam bir görüş birliği sağlanamamıştır. Bu konuda üç farklı görüş bulunmaktadır. Bazı araştırmacılar nüfusun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi olduğunu savunurken diğerleri etkinin olumsuz olduğunu iddia etmektedir. Bazı çalışmalarda ise iki değişken arasında ilişki bulunamamıştır. Bu makalede, nüfus ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişki yaşam beklentisi, enflasyon ve sermaye oluşumu değişkenleri de dahil ederek Türkiye örneğinden hareketle 1968-2019 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak ARDL sınır testi analizi ile incelenmiştir. Araştırma bulgularına göre, Türkiye’de nüfus kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi negatif etkilerken uzun dönemde pozitif etkilemektedir. Yaşam beklentisi ve sermaye oluşumu büyümeyi kısa ve uzun dönemde pozitif etkilerken enflasyon değişkeni uzun dönemde negatif etkiye sahiptir.

References

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  • Erdoğan, S., ve Bozkurt, H. (2008). Türkiye’de yaşam beklentisi-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: ARDL modeli ile bir analiz. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 3(1), 25-38. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/40506
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Analysis of the Relationship between Population, Life Expectancy, and Economic Growth with ARDL Method: The Case of Turkey

Year 2023, Volume: 23 Issue: 2, 481 - 500, 04.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1163964

Abstract

Population growth has a significant impact on a country's economy. The importance of the relationship between population growth and economic growth is accepted by both growth theorists and development economists. However, the literature has no consensus on the relationship between population and economic growth. There are three different views on this issue. Some researchers argue that population positively affects economic growth, while others argue that the effect is negative. In some studies, no correlation was found between these two variables. In this article, the long-term and short-term correlation between population and economic growth, including life expectancy, inflation, and capital formation variables, is analyzed with ARDL bounds test analysis using annual data for the period 1968-2019, based on the case of Turkey. According to the research findings, while the population in Turkey affects economic growth negatively in the short term, it has a positive effect in the long term. The life expectancy and capital formation affect economic growth positively in the short and long run but the inflation variable has a negative effect in the long run.

References

  • Acemoglu, D., ve Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development: the effect of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of political Economy, 115(6), 925-985. https://doi.org/10.1086/529000
  • Afzal, M. (2009). Population growth and economic development in Pakistan. The Open Demography Journal, 2(1), 1-7. doi: 10.2174/1874918600902010001
  • Aghion, P. ve Howitt, P. (1992). A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323–351. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951599
  • Ahmad, N. ve Nayyab, S. (2021). Impact of Demographic Variables on Economic Growth in South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. Sustainable Business and Society in Emerging Economies, 3(1), 49-58. doi: https://doi.org/10.26710/sbsee.v3i1.1814
  • Aidi, H. O., Emecheta, C. ve Ngwudiobu, I. M. (2016). Population and Economic growth in Nigeria: Is there an empirical evidence of causality. International Journal Advances in Social Science and Humanities, 4(2), 59-66. Erişim adresi: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/234647596.pdf
  • Akinsola, F. A. ve Odhiambo, N. M. (2017). Inflation and economic growth: A review of the international literature. Comparative Economic Research, 20(3), 41-56. doi: 10.1515/cer-2017-0019
  • Ali, S., Alam, K., Islam, S. ve Hossain, M. (2015). An empirical analysis of population growth on economic development: The case study of Bangladesh. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 3(3), 252-259. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20150303.21
  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. J., Galbraith, J. W. ve Hendry, D. (1993). Co-integration, error correction, and the econometric analysis of non-stationary data. New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Barro, R. J. (2013). Inflation and economic growth. Annals of Economics and Finance, 14(1), 121-144. Erişim adresi: https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.295.9208&rep=rep1&type=pdf
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  • Becker, G. S., Glaeser, E. L. ve Murphy, K. M. (1999). Population and economic growth. American Economic Review, 89(2), 145-149. doi: 10.1257/aer.89.2.145
  • Berber, M. ve Artan, S. (2004). Enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (No. 2004/21). Discussion Paper. No: 2004/21, Turkish Association, Ankara. Erişim adresi: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/83280
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  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. ve Fink, G. (2010). Implications of population ageing for economic growth. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26(4), 583-612. doi: 10.1093/oxrep/grq038
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. ve Sevilla, J. (2001). Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition. NBER Working Papers, (8685), 1-87. doi: 10.3386/w8685
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  • Dao, M. Q. (2012). Population and economic growth in developing countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 2(1), 6. Erişim adresi: https://hrmars.com/papers_submitted/8747/population-and-economic-growth-in-developing-countries.pdf
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  • Demir, O., ve Özkaya, Y. (2021). Nüfusun yaş yapisi-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi; en büyük 20 ekonomi örneği. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(41), 17-32. doi: 10.35343/kosbed.768801
  • Dikmen, N. (2022). Türkiye’de nüfus artışı ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi, Journal of Social, Humanities and Administrative Sciences, 8(51), 473-485. doi: 10.29228/JOSH AS.61789
  • Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S. ve Startz, R. (2011). Macroeconomics. New York: McGraw-Hill. Ehrlich PR (1968) Population control or race oblivion? The population bomb. New York: Ballantine Books.
  • Epaphra, M. (2016). Nonlinearities in inflation and growth nexus: the case of Tanzania. Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 3(3), 471-572. doi: 10.20944/preprints201608.0222.v2
  • Erdoğan, S., ve Bozkurt, H. (2008). Türkiye’de yaşam beklentisi-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: ARDL modeli ile bir analiz. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 3(1), 25-38. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/40506
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  • Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel lecture: inflation and unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451-472. doi: 10.1086/260579
  • Galor, O. ve Weil, D. N. (2000). Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, 90(4), 806-828. doi: 10.1257/aer.90.4.806
  • Grossman, G. M. ve Helpman, E. (1991). Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth. European Economic Review, 35(2-3), 517-526. doi: 10.1016/0014-2921(91)90153-A
  • Günsoy, G. ve Tekeli, S. (2015). Nüfusun yaşlanması ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir analiz. Amme İdaresi Dergisi, 48(1), 35-87. Erişim adresi: https://earsiv.anadolu.edu.tr/xmlui/handle/11421/19086
  • Hasan, M. S. (2010). The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(3), 355-372. doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.09.005
  • He, L., ve Li, N. (2020). The linkages between life expectancy and economic growth: some new evidence. Empirical Economics, 58, 2381-2402. doi: 10.10071s00181-018-1612-7.
  • Headey, D. D. ve Hodge, A. (2009). The effect of population growth on economic growth: A meta‐regression analysis of the macroeconomic literature. Population and Development Review, 35(2), 221-248. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00274.x
  • Huang, T. H. ve Xie, Z. (2013). Population and economic growth: a simultaneous equation perspective. Applied Economics, 45(27), 3820-3826. doi: 10.1080/00036846.2012.734596
  • Jones, C. I. (1995). Time series tests of endogenous growth models. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 495-525. doi: /10.2307/2118448
  • Karagöz, H. (2021). Nüfus yaşlanmasının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: OECD ülkeleri örneği. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 20(42), 1544-1565. doi: 10.46928/iticusbe.987104
  • Kelley, A., ve Schmidt, R. (2001). Economic and Demographic Change: A Synthesis of Models, Findings. and Perspectives. N. Birdsall, A. Kelley, S. Sinding (Ed.), Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World (s. 67-105) içinde, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Kuznets, S. (1967). Population and economic growth. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 111(3), 170-193. Erişim adresi: https://www.jstor.org/stable/985714
  • Lee, H. H. ve Shin, K. (2019). Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth. Japan and the World Economy, 51, 100963. doi: 10.1016/j.japwor.2019.100963
  • Lopreite, M. ve Zhu, Z. (2020). The effects of ageing population on health expenditure and economic growth in China: A Bayesian-VAR approach. Social Science and Medicine, 265, 113513. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113513
  • Mahmoudinia, D., Hosseini Kondelaji, M. H. ve Jafari, S. (2020). The causality relationship between population, economic growth and capital stock in OIC countries and its policy aspects. International Journal of New Political Economy, 1(2), 117-132. doi: 10.29252/JEP.1.2.117
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Growth, Inflation, Macroeconomics (Other)
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Havva Nesrin Tiryaki 0000-0002-0083-0827

Aykut Ekinci 0000-0002-5629-6168

Publication Date July 4, 2023
Submission Date August 18, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 23 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Tiryaki, H. N., & Ekinci, A. (2023). Nüfus, Yaşam Beklentisi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Yöntemi ile Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(2), 481-500. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1163964

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