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Hisse Senedi Piyasasında Yön Bulma: Kayıptan Kaçınma, Eğilim Etkisi ve Çapa ve Ayarlama Yanlılığı ile Zenginlik Değişimi ve Ağ Etkileşimi Modellemesi

Year 2024, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 88 - 122, 29.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1435009

Abstract

Bu çalışma, ajan tabanlı modellere meta-analizi entegre etmeyi ve yanlı ajan etkileşimlerine dair temel içgörüler sunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Çapa, mülkiyet etkisi, kayıptan kaçınma ve diğer çeşitli davranışsal yanlılıkların piyasa dinamikleri ve yatırımcı kararları üzerindeki etkisini derinlemesine incelenmektedir. Ajan tabanlı modeller kullanarak, piyasa senaryoları ve yatırımcı davranışlarının simülasyonlarını sunmakta ve bireysel kararların piyasa dinamikleri üzerindeki etkisini vurgulanmaktadır. Çalışmanın yenilikçi yaklaşımı, davranışsal finans teorilerini gerçek piyasa verileriyle bütünleştirmesinde yatmakta ve piyasa davranışlarının nüanslı bir analizini sunmaktadır. Bu çalışma, davranışsal finansa yeni bir perspektif katmakta ve piyasa dinamikleri ile yatırımcı davranışlarının daha iyi anlaşılması için ajan tabanlı modellerin kullanımını teşvik etmektedir, bu da finansal piyasa analizi ve politika oluşturmada yardımcı olabilir. Çalışma, meta-analizi ajan tabanlı modellere entegre etmek isteyen ve yanlı ajan davranışlarını incelemeyi sağlayacak temel bir altyapı sunmayı hedeflemektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları, ajanların sosyo-demografik ve psikolojik faktörlerini dikkate alarak, kayıp kaçınımı, mülkiyet etkisi ve çapa ve ayarlama yanlılığının etkileşimlerini gerçek dünyaya en yakın şekilde modellenebildiğini göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, insan davranışlarının portföy optimizasyonlarında daha doğru modellenebilmesine ve Genelleştirilmiş Yapay Zeka'nın finansal piyasalara yönelik uygulamalarının genişletilmesine yönelik uygulamalarda oldukça elverişli öngörüler sunmaktadır.

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Navigating the Stock Market: Modeling Wealth Exchange and Network Interaction with Loss Aversion, Disposition Effect and Anchoring and Adjustment Bias

Year 2024, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 88 - 122, 29.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1435009

Abstract

This study aims to integrate meta-analysis into agent-based models and provide foundational insights into biased agent interactions. It delves deeply into the effects of various behavioral biases such as anchoring, disposition effect, loss aversion, and others on market dynamics and investor decisions. Using agent-based models, it presents simulations of market scenarios and investor behaviors, emphasizing the impact of individual decisions on market dynamics. The innovative approach of this study lies in integrating behavioral finance theories with real market data, offering a nuanced analysis of market behaviors. This work contributes a new perspective to behavioral finance and encourages the use of agent-based models to deepen our understanding of market dynamics and investor behaviors, which can be helpful in financial market analysis and policy-making. This study aims to provide a foundational framework for those looking to integrate meta-analysis into agent-based models and explore biased agent behaviors. The findings demonstrate the ability to model the interactions of loss aversion, disposition effect, and anchoring and adjustment bias taking into account agents' socio-demographic and psychological factors, as close to the real world as possible. The results offer highly favorable forecasts for modeling human behaviors more accurately in portfolio optimizations and for expanding the applications of Generalized Artificial Intelligence in financial market implementations.

References

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  • Asadi, D., Davallou, M. and Eskini, S. (2020). Adjustment and anchoring or disposition effect; Evidence of momentum pattern. Journal of Financial Management Perspective, 29, 9-37. doi:10.52547/JFMP.10.29.9
  • Bankes, S.C. (2002). Agent-based modeling: A revolution? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99, 7199-7200. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.072081299
  • Barber, B.M. and Odean, T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.139415
  • Blake, D., Cannon, E. and Wright, D. (2021). Quantifying loss aversion: Evidence from a UK population survey. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 63(1), 27-57. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3552247
  • Blumer, H. (1986). Symbolic interactionism: Perspective and method. London: University of California Press.
  • Bokhari, S. and Geltner, D. (2011). Loss aversion and anchoring in commercial real estate pricing: Empirical evidence and price index implications. Real Estate Economics, 39(4), 635-670. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2011.00308.x
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  • Boyce, C.J., Wood, A.M., Banks, J., Clark, A.E. and Brown, G.D. (2013). Money, well-being, and loss aversion: Does an income loss have a greater effect on well-being than an equivalent income gain? Psychological Science, 24(12), 2557-2562. doi:10.1177/0956797613496436
  • Boyce, C.J., Wood, A.M. and Ferguson, E. (2016). Individual differences in loss aversion: Conscientiousness predicts how life satisfaction responds to losses versus gains in income. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 42(4), 471-484. doi:10.1177/0146167216634060
  • Carter, M.J. and Fuller, C. (2016). Symbolic interactionism. Current Sociology, 64(6), 931-961. https://doi.org/10.1177/001139211663839
  • Cecchini, M., Bajo, E., Russo, P.M. and Sobrero, M. (2019). Individual differences in the disposition effect. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 20(1), 107-126. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2018.1492579
  • Champonnois, V., Chanel, O. and Makhloufi, K. (2018). Reducing the anchoring bias in multiple question CV surveys. Journal of Choice Modelling, 28, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2018.04.005
  • Cheng, T.Y., Lee, C.I. and Lin, C.H. (2013). An examination of the relationship between the disposition effect and gender, age, the traded security, and bull–bear market conditions. Journal of Empirical Finance, 21, 195-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2013.01.003
  • Cho, I. and Chalid, D. (2019). The effects of behavioral biases on investment performances of individual investors in the Indonesian stock market. In A. Widiana, E.R. Wulan, C. Hidayat, R.S. Fuadi, and R. Rahim (Eds.), Proceedings of the 1st international conference on Islam, science, and technology (pp. 11-12). Papers presented at the ICONISTECH 2019, Bandung, Indonesia: UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung & University Malaysia Perlis.
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  • Davis, H.L., Hoch, S.J. and Ragsdale, E.E. (1986). An anchoring and adjustment model of spousal predictions. Journal of Consumer Research, 13(1), 25-37. https://doi.org/10.1086/209045
  • Dawson, C. (2023). Gender differences in optimism, loss aversion and attitudes towards risk. British Journal of Psychology, 114(4), 928-944, doi:10.1111/bjop.12668
  • Dervishaj, B. (2021). Psychological biases, main factors of financial behaviour - A literature review. European Journal of Medicine and Natural Sciences, 4(1), 27-44. doi:10.26417/ejnm.v1i2.p25-35
  • Dhar, R. and Zhu, N. (2002). Up close and personal: An individual level analysis of the disposition effect (Yale ICF Working Paper No. 02-20). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302245
  • Dharma, W.A. and Koesrindartoto, D.P. (2018). Reversal on disposition effect: evidence from Indonesian stock trader behavior. International Journal of Business & Society, 19(1), 233-244. Retrieved from https://www.ijbs.unimas.my/
  • Dohmen, T., Falk, A., Huffman, D., Sunde, U., Schupp, J. and Wagner, G.G. (2011). Individual risk attitudes: Measurement, determinants, and behavioral consequences. Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(3), 522-550. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01015.x
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Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Behavioural Economy, Financial Markets and Institutions
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Ömür Saltık 0000-0001-8507-8971

Publication Date March 29, 2024
Submission Date February 10, 2024
Acceptance Date March 27, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 9 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Saltık, Ö. (2024). Navigating the Stock Market: Modeling Wealth Exchange and Network Interaction with Loss Aversion, Disposition Effect and Anchoring and Adjustment Bias. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(1), 88-122. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1435009