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AVRUPA PİYASALARINDA DOĞAL GAZ FİYATININ PETROL FİYATI İLE İLİŞKİSİ – SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2021, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 123 - 134, 31.03.2021

Ali Osman Gürbüz Abdulah Nezihi Erdem

https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.854682
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışma, bağımsız bir doğalgaz fiyatının varlığını araştırmaktadır. İnceleme konusu olarak Avrupa pazarları ele alınmıştır. Doğal gaz fiyatının petrol fiyatından ayrışmasının varlığı incelenmiş, doğal gaz fiyatı olarak Almanya Federal İhracat Kontrol Ofisi (BAFA) tarafından açıklanan aylık ortalama sınır giriş fiyatı, petrol fiyatı olarak ise aylık ortalama Brent petrolü fiyatı kullanılmıştır. Serilerin eşbütünleşikliği Sınır Testi ile incelenmiş, kısa ve uzun dönem analizleri ARDL metoduyla yapılmıştır. 2010:01-2020:03 arası dönem için yapılan araştırmada elde edilen sonuçlar, petrol fiyatının doğal gaz fiyatına etkisinin literatürdeki araştırmalar kadar olmasa da sürdüğünü göstermiştir.

Keywords

Doğal Gaz Fiyatı Avrupa Gaz Piyasası Petrol Fiyatına Bağlılık ARDL tahmini

References

  • ASCHE, F., MISUND, B. ve SIKVELAND, M. (2013). The Relationship between spot and contract gas prices in Europe. Energy Economics, 38, 212-217.
  • ASCHE, F., OGLEND, A. ve OSMUNDSEN, P. (2017). Modeling UK natural gas prices when gas prices periodically decouple from the oil price. The Energy Journal, 38, no.2, 131–148.
  • BASTIANIN, A., GALEOTTI, M. ve POLO, M. (2019). Convergence of European natural gas prices. Energy Economics, 81, 793-811.
  • BROWN, S. P. A. ve YÜCEL, M. K. (2008). What Drives Natural Gas Prices. The Energy Journal, 29, no.2, 45-60.
  • DICKEY, D. A. ve FULLER, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • ERDŐS, P. (2012). Have Oil and Gas Prices Got Separated? Energy Policy, 49, 707–718.
  • HARTLEY, P. R., MEDLOCK, K. B. III, ve ROSTHAL, J. E. (2008). The Relationship of Natural Gas to Oil Prices. The Energy Journal, 29, no.3, 47-65.
  • KAO, H. C. (2011). US Natural Gas Price and Its Influencing Factors. Chicago: Tezi. University of Illinois at Chicago, Graduate College in Business Administration, Doktora Tezi.
  • NARAYAN, P. K. (2004). Reformulating Critical Values for the Bounds F-statistics Approach to Cointegration: An Application to the Tourism Demand Model for Fiji (Department of Economics Discussion Papers No. 02/04, ISSN 1441-5429). Victoria: Monash University
  • NEUMANN, A., 2009. Linking natural gas markets—is LNG doing its job? Energy J., 30(Special Edition), 187-200.
  • NICK, S. ve THOENES, S. (2014). What Drives Natural Gas Prices? – A Structural VAR Approach. Energy Economics, 45, 517-527.
  • OBADI, S. M., OTHMANOVA, S. ve ABDOVA, M. (2013). What are the Causes of High Crude Oil Price? Causality Investigation. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3, 80-92.
  • PANAGIOTIDIS, T. ve RUTLEDGE, E. (2007). Oil and gas markets in the UK: Evidence from a cointegrating approach. Energy Economics, 29, 329–347.
  • PESARAN, M., SHIN Y., ve SMITH, R. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, no 3, 289-326.
  • RAMBERG, D. J. ve PARSONS, J. E. (2012). The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices. The Energy Journal, 33, no.2, 13–35.
  • ROMAGUS, G. M. (2012). Convergence and Divergence of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices. Houston: University of Houston, The Faculty of the Department of Economics, Doktora Tezi.
  • SCHMIDT, M. (2018). Changing dynamics in European natural gas prices: Does the oil price still hold sway – an ARDL approach. 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM2018 içinde, basımevi: IEEE. DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2018.8469888
  • STERN, J ve IMSIROVIC, A. (2020). A Comperative history of oil and gas markets and prices: is 2020 just an extreme cyclical event or an acceleration of the energy transition? (Energy Insight: 68). Oxford: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
  • STERN, J. ve ROGERS, H. V. (2014). The Dynamics of a liberalised European gas market: Key determinants of hub prices, and roles and risks of major players (OIES PAPER: NG94). Oxford: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS PRICE AND OIL PRICE – BOUNDS TEST APPROACH

Year 2021, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 123 - 134, 31.03.2021

Ali Osman Gürbüz Abdulah Nezihi Erdem

https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.854682
Cited By: 1

Abstract

This study investigates the existence of an independent natural gas price. European markets are considered as the subject of study. The existence of the decoupling of the natural gas price from the oil price was examined, the monthly average border entry price announced by the German Federal Export Control Office (BAFA) as the natural gas price, and the monthly average Brent crude oil price as the oil price. The cointegration of the series was examined with the Bounds Test, and the short and long term analyzes were made by the ARDL method. The results obtained in the study conducted for the period between 2010: 01-2020: 03 show that the effect of oil price on natural gas prices continues, although not as much as at the studies in the literature.

Keywords

Natural Gas Price European Gas Market Oil Price Linkage ARDL Estimation

References

  • ASCHE, F., MISUND, B. ve SIKVELAND, M. (2013). The Relationship between spot and contract gas prices in Europe. Energy Economics, 38, 212-217.
  • ASCHE, F., OGLEND, A. ve OSMUNDSEN, P. (2017). Modeling UK natural gas prices when gas prices periodically decouple from the oil price. The Energy Journal, 38, no.2, 131–148.
  • BASTIANIN, A., GALEOTTI, M. ve POLO, M. (2019). Convergence of European natural gas prices. Energy Economics, 81, 793-811.
  • BROWN, S. P. A. ve YÜCEL, M. K. (2008). What Drives Natural Gas Prices. The Energy Journal, 29, no.2, 45-60.
  • DICKEY, D. A. ve FULLER, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • ERDŐS, P. (2012). Have Oil and Gas Prices Got Separated? Energy Policy, 49, 707–718.
  • HARTLEY, P. R., MEDLOCK, K. B. III, ve ROSTHAL, J. E. (2008). The Relationship of Natural Gas to Oil Prices. The Energy Journal, 29, no.3, 47-65.
  • KAO, H. C. (2011). US Natural Gas Price and Its Influencing Factors. Chicago: Tezi. University of Illinois at Chicago, Graduate College in Business Administration, Doktora Tezi.
  • NARAYAN, P. K. (2004). Reformulating Critical Values for the Bounds F-statistics Approach to Cointegration: An Application to the Tourism Demand Model for Fiji (Department of Economics Discussion Papers No. 02/04, ISSN 1441-5429). Victoria: Monash University
  • NEUMANN, A., 2009. Linking natural gas markets—is LNG doing its job? Energy J., 30(Special Edition), 187-200.
  • NICK, S. ve THOENES, S. (2014). What Drives Natural Gas Prices? – A Structural VAR Approach. Energy Economics, 45, 517-527.
  • OBADI, S. M., OTHMANOVA, S. ve ABDOVA, M. (2013). What are the Causes of High Crude Oil Price? Causality Investigation. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3, 80-92.
  • PANAGIOTIDIS, T. ve RUTLEDGE, E. (2007). Oil and gas markets in the UK: Evidence from a cointegrating approach. Energy Economics, 29, 329–347.
  • PESARAN, M., SHIN Y., ve SMITH, R. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, no 3, 289-326.
  • RAMBERG, D. J. ve PARSONS, J. E. (2012). The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices. The Energy Journal, 33, no.2, 13–35.
  • ROMAGUS, G. M. (2012). Convergence and Divergence of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices. Houston: University of Houston, The Faculty of the Department of Economics, Doktora Tezi.
  • SCHMIDT, M. (2018). Changing dynamics in European natural gas prices: Does the oil price still hold sway – an ARDL approach. 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM2018 içinde, basımevi: IEEE. DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2018.8469888
  • STERN, J ve IMSIROVIC, A. (2020). A Comperative history of oil and gas markets and prices: is 2020 just an extreme cyclical event or an acceleration of the energy transition? (Energy Insight: 68). Oxford: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
  • STERN, J. ve ROGERS, H. V. (2014). The Dynamics of a liberalised European gas market: Key determinants of hub prices, and roles and risks of major players (OIES PAPER: NG94). Oxford: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
There are 19 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Araştırma Makaleleri
Authors

Ali Osman Gürbüz 0000-0003-0230-5839

Abdulah Nezihi Erdem 0000-0003-3716-4300

Publication Date March 31, 2021
Submission Date January 5, 2021
Acceptance Date January 28, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 6 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Gürbüz, A. O., & Erdem, A. N. (2021). AVRUPA PİYASALARINDA DOĞAL GAZ FİYATININ PETROL FİYATI İLE İLİŞKİSİ – SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI. Finans Ekonomi Ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6(1), 123-134. https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.854682

Cited By

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE VOLATILITY EFFECT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC PROCESS ON NATURAL GAS FUTURE TRANSACTIONS IN TURKEY
Sosyal Bilimler Akademi Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.38004/sobad.1184594
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