BibTex RIS Cite

Türkiye’de İhracat Artışlarınınİstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisininİncelenmesi

Year 2016, Issue: 616, 75 - 86, 01.06.2016

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye özelinde ihracat ve istihdam arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. 2005M01-2015M09 dönemine ait aylık verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmada ilk olarak ihracat ve istihdam verilerinin durağanlıkları Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. İkinci aşamada birinci farklarında durağan olan ilgili değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmiş ve değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı kanıtlanmıştır. Uzun dönemde beraber hareket ettikleri kanıtlanan değişkenler için analizin üçüncü aşamasında Tam Düzeltilmiş En Küçük Kareler (FMOLS) yöntemi kullanılarak uzun dönem katsayı tahminlemesi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye’de 2005M01 – 2015M09 döneminde ihracat ile istihdam arasında uzun dönemli ve pozitif yönlü bir ilişki mevcuttur. Analizin son aşamasında yer alan hata düzeltme modeline göre de ihracat ve istihdam serileri arasında uzun dönem analizleri güvenilir sonuçlar vermektedir

References

  • ABOWD, John. M. and Thomas LEMIEUX; (1990), “The Effects
  • International Competition on Collective Bargaining Outcomes: A Comparison of the United States and Canada”, Natıonal Bu- reau Of Economıc Research (NBER) Working Paper Series, No. 3352.
  • AYDINER, Mehmet; (2016), “İhracatın İstihdam Üzerine Etkisi”
  • Avrasya Bilimler Akademisi İşletme ve İktisat Dergisi, 4 (3), ss. 41. AYDINER, Nursel A ve Özlem ONARAN; (2009), “The Deter- minants of Employment: A Sectoral Analysis For Turkey”, The Developing Economies, 48(2), pp. 203-231.
  • BAİ, Jushan and Pierre PERRON; (1998), “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes”, Econometrica, 66(1), pp. 47–78.
  • BERNARD, Andrew B. and J. Bradford JENSEN; (1999)
  • “Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect, or Both?”, Journal of International Economics, 47 (1), pp.1-25. CARRİON-I-SİLVESTRE, Josep Lluís, Dukpa KİM and Pierre PERRON; (2009), “GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple
  • Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hy- potheses”, Econometric Theory, 25, pp. 1754-1792.
  • DİJAZİ, Monireh and Ketabforoush BADRİ; (2014), “The Effect of Exports on Employment in Iran’s Economy”, Merit Research
  • Journal of Art, Social Science and Humanities, 2(6) pp. 081- ENGLE, Robert F. and, C.W.J. GRANGER; (1987). “Co-Inte- gration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55 (2), pp. 251–276.
  • ERLAT, Güzin; (2000), “Measuring The Impact Of Trade Flows
  • On Employment In The Turkish Manufacturing Industry”, Ap- plied Economics, 32(9), pp. 1169-1180.
  • FEENSTRA, Robert C. And Chang HONG; (2007), “Chına's
  • Exports and Employment”, Natıonal Bureau Of Economıc Re- search (NBER), Working Paper Series, No. 13552.
  • FU, Xiaolan and V.N BALASUBRAMANYAM; (2005), “Exports
  • Foreign Direct İnvestment and Employment: The Case of Chi- na”, The World Economy, 28 (4). pp. 607-625. GÖÇER, İsmet , Mehmet MERCAN ve Osman PEKER; (2013)
  • “İhracat, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve İşsizlik: Türkiye Örneği”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 4 (1), ss. 120. GREENAWAY, David, Robert C. HİNE and Peter WRIGHT; (1998), “An Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Trade on
  • Employment in the United Kingdom”, Centre For Research On Globalisation And Labour Markets, Research Paper 98/3, pp. 18. GREGORY, Allan W. and Bruce E. HANSEN (1996), “Re- sidual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime
  • Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), pp. 99-126. HATEMİ-J, Abdulnasser; (2008), “Tests For Cointegration with
  • Two Unknown Regime Shifts with an Application to Financial Market Integration”, Empirical Economics, 35 (3), pp. 497-505. JENKİNS, Rhys; (2004), “Vietnam in The Global Economy
  • Trade, Employment And Poverty”, Journal of International De- velopment, 16 (1), pp. 13–28. JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegra- tion Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3), pp. 231–254.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Test- ing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive
  • Models”, Econometrica, 59 (6), pp. 1551–1580.
  • KAPETANİOS, George; (2005), “Unit-Root Testing Against The Alternative Hypothesis of up to m Structural Breaks”, Journal of
  • Time Series Analysis, 26(1), pp. 123–133. KİYOTA Kozo; (2014), “Exports and Employment in China, In- donesia, Japan and Korea”, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. , OECD Publishing.
  • LEE, Junsoo and Mark C. STRAZİCİCH; (2004). “Minimum
  • Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with One Structural Break”, Working Paper, Department of Economics, Appalachain State University. LEE, Junsoo and Mark C. STRAZİCİCH; (2003), “Minimum La- grange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”
  • The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), pp.1082-1089.
  • LUMSDAİNE, Robin L. and David H. PAPELL; (1997), “Multiple
  • Trend Breaks and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79 (2), pp. 212-218. MAKİ, Daiki; (2012), “Tests For Cointegration Allowing for an
  • Unknown Number of Breaks”, Economic Modelling, 29(5), pp. 2015.
  • NG, Serena and Pierre PERRON; (2001), “Lag Length Selec- tion and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power”, Econometrica, 69 (6), pp. 1519-1554.
  • PARK, Joon Y.; (1992), “Canonical Cointegrating Regressions”, Econometrica, 60 (1), pp. 119-143.
  • PERRON, Pierre; (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price
  • Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57(6), pp. 1361-1401.
  • PERRON, Pierre; (1997), “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend
  • Functions in Macroeconomic Veriables”, Journal of Economet- ric, 80 (2), pp. 355-385. PERRON, Pierre and Xiaokang ZHU; (2005), “Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends” Journal of Economet- rics, 129 (1-2), pp. 65-119
  • PHİLLİPS, Peter C. and Bruce E. HANSEN; (1990), “Statistical
  • Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Pro- cesses”, The Review of Economic Studies, 57 (1), pp. 99-125. POLAT, Özgür; Enes Erlad USLU (2010), “Türkiye İmalat
  • Sanayinde Dış Ticaretin İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi”, Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9 (3), ss. 489-504. SAİKKONEN, Pentti; (1992), “Estimation and Testing of Cointe- grated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation”, Econo- metric Theory, 8(1), pp.1-27.
  • SANDALCILAR, Ali R. ve İlkay Noyan YALMAN; (2012)
  • “Türkiye’de Dış Ticaretteki Serbestleşmenin İşgücü Piyasaları Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Ekim 2012, 7(2), ss. 49-65.
  • STOCK, James.H. and Mark W. WATSON; (1993), “A Simple
  • Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61 (4), pp.783-820. SUNAL, Seçkin ve Elçin AYKAÇ; (2005), “Türk İmalat Sanay- inde İstihdam, İhracat ve Kapasite Kullanım Oranı İlişkisi: Pan- el Koentegrasyon”, VII. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempo- zyumu, 26-27 Mayıs, İstanbul.
  • WELSUM, Desiree V. and Xavier REİF; (2006), “The Share of
  • Employment Potentially Affected by Offshoring: An Empirical Investigation”, OECD Digital Economy Papers, No: 107, OECD Publishing, pp. 1- 39. ZAKİ, Chahir; (2011) “Trade, Employment and Gender: Evi- dence from Egypt”, in Trade, Jobs and Inclusive Development in Africa, International Collaborative Initiative on Trade and Em- ployment (ICITE) Regional Conference, Organization of Eco- nomic Development and African Development Bank.
  • ZİVOT, Eric and Donald W. K. ANDREWS; (1992), “Further
  • Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock and the Unit- Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business Economic Statistics, (3), pp. 251-270.

Analysing the Effect of Export on Employment in Turkish Economy

Year 2016, Issue: 616, 75 - 86, 01.06.2016

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between export volume and employment level in the Turkish economy, using monthly data for the period of 2005M01 and 2015M09. In the first part of the study, we determine the stationarity of the two series by Carrion-i Silvestre (2009) multiple structural breakpoint unit root test and we find that series are stationary at their first difference. At the second step, we estimate the cointegration relationship by introducing of Maki (2012) multiple structrural breakpoint cointegration test and we find that there is a cointegration relationship between export and employment level that means these two series are moving together in the long run. Thirdly, we estimate the long run coefficients using the method of Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). According to the result, there is a positive relationship between export volume and employment level in the long term over the period of 2005M01-2015M09. Lastly, we estimate a vector error correction (VEC) in a cointegration framework and the results indicate that a statistically significant long run eguilibrium relationship exists between the export volume and employment level in the Turkish economy

References

  • ABOWD, John. M. and Thomas LEMIEUX; (1990), “The Effects
  • International Competition on Collective Bargaining Outcomes: A Comparison of the United States and Canada”, Natıonal Bu- reau Of Economıc Research (NBER) Working Paper Series, No. 3352.
  • AYDINER, Mehmet; (2016), “İhracatın İstihdam Üzerine Etkisi”
  • Avrasya Bilimler Akademisi İşletme ve İktisat Dergisi, 4 (3), ss. 41. AYDINER, Nursel A ve Özlem ONARAN; (2009), “The Deter- minants of Employment: A Sectoral Analysis For Turkey”, The Developing Economies, 48(2), pp. 203-231.
  • BAİ, Jushan and Pierre PERRON; (1998), “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes”, Econometrica, 66(1), pp. 47–78.
  • BERNARD, Andrew B. and J. Bradford JENSEN; (1999)
  • “Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect, or Both?”, Journal of International Economics, 47 (1), pp.1-25. CARRİON-I-SİLVESTRE, Josep Lluís, Dukpa KİM and Pierre PERRON; (2009), “GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple
  • Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hy- potheses”, Econometric Theory, 25, pp. 1754-1792.
  • DİJAZİ, Monireh and Ketabforoush BADRİ; (2014), “The Effect of Exports on Employment in Iran’s Economy”, Merit Research
  • Journal of Art, Social Science and Humanities, 2(6) pp. 081- ENGLE, Robert F. and, C.W.J. GRANGER; (1987). “Co-Inte- gration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55 (2), pp. 251–276.
  • ERLAT, Güzin; (2000), “Measuring The Impact Of Trade Flows
  • On Employment In The Turkish Manufacturing Industry”, Ap- plied Economics, 32(9), pp. 1169-1180.
  • FEENSTRA, Robert C. And Chang HONG; (2007), “Chına's
  • Exports and Employment”, Natıonal Bureau Of Economıc Re- search (NBER), Working Paper Series, No. 13552.
  • FU, Xiaolan and V.N BALASUBRAMANYAM; (2005), “Exports
  • Foreign Direct İnvestment and Employment: The Case of Chi- na”, The World Economy, 28 (4). pp. 607-625. GÖÇER, İsmet , Mehmet MERCAN ve Osman PEKER; (2013)
  • “İhracat, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve İşsizlik: Türkiye Örneği”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 4 (1), ss. 120. GREENAWAY, David, Robert C. HİNE and Peter WRIGHT; (1998), “An Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Trade on
  • Employment in the United Kingdom”, Centre For Research On Globalisation And Labour Markets, Research Paper 98/3, pp. 18. GREGORY, Allan W. and Bruce E. HANSEN (1996), “Re- sidual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime
  • Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), pp. 99-126. HATEMİ-J, Abdulnasser; (2008), “Tests For Cointegration with
  • Two Unknown Regime Shifts with an Application to Financial Market Integration”, Empirical Economics, 35 (3), pp. 497-505. JENKİNS, Rhys; (2004), “Vietnam in The Global Economy
  • Trade, Employment And Poverty”, Journal of International De- velopment, 16 (1), pp. 13–28. JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegra- tion Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3), pp. 231–254.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Test- ing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive
  • Models”, Econometrica, 59 (6), pp. 1551–1580.
  • KAPETANİOS, George; (2005), “Unit-Root Testing Against The Alternative Hypothesis of up to m Structural Breaks”, Journal of
  • Time Series Analysis, 26(1), pp. 123–133. KİYOTA Kozo; (2014), “Exports and Employment in China, In- donesia, Japan and Korea”, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. , OECD Publishing.
  • LEE, Junsoo and Mark C. STRAZİCİCH; (2004). “Minimum
  • Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with One Structural Break”, Working Paper, Department of Economics, Appalachain State University. LEE, Junsoo and Mark C. STRAZİCİCH; (2003), “Minimum La- grange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”
  • The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), pp.1082-1089.
  • LUMSDAİNE, Robin L. and David H. PAPELL; (1997), “Multiple
  • Trend Breaks and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79 (2), pp. 212-218. MAKİ, Daiki; (2012), “Tests For Cointegration Allowing for an
  • Unknown Number of Breaks”, Economic Modelling, 29(5), pp. 2015.
  • NG, Serena and Pierre PERRON; (2001), “Lag Length Selec- tion and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power”, Econometrica, 69 (6), pp. 1519-1554.
  • PARK, Joon Y.; (1992), “Canonical Cointegrating Regressions”, Econometrica, 60 (1), pp. 119-143.
  • PERRON, Pierre; (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price
  • Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57(6), pp. 1361-1401.
  • PERRON, Pierre; (1997), “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend
  • Functions in Macroeconomic Veriables”, Journal of Economet- ric, 80 (2), pp. 355-385. PERRON, Pierre and Xiaokang ZHU; (2005), “Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends” Journal of Economet- rics, 129 (1-2), pp. 65-119
  • PHİLLİPS, Peter C. and Bruce E. HANSEN; (1990), “Statistical
  • Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Pro- cesses”, The Review of Economic Studies, 57 (1), pp. 99-125. POLAT, Özgür; Enes Erlad USLU (2010), “Türkiye İmalat
  • Sanayinde Dış Ticaretin İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi”, Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9 (3), ss. 489-504. SAİKKONEN, Pentti; (1992), “Estimation and Testing of Cointe- grated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation”, Econo- metric Theory, 8(1), pp.1-27.
  • SANDALCILAR, Ali R. ve İlkay Noyan YALMAN; (2012)
  • “Türkiye’de Dış Ticaretteki Serbestleşmenin İşgücü Piyasaları Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Ekim 2012, 7(2), ss. 49-65.
  • STOCK, James.H. and Mark W. WATSON; (1993), “A Simple
  • Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61 (4), pp.783-820. SUNAL, Seçkin ve Elçin AYKAÇ; (2005), “Türk İmalat Sanay- inde İstihdam, İhracat ve Kapasite Kullanım Oranı İlişkisi: Pan- el Koentegrasyon”, VII. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempo- zyumu, 26-27 Mayıs, İstanbul.
  • WELSUM, Desiree V. and Xavier REİF; (2006), “The Share of
  • Employment Potentially Affected by Offshoring: An Empirical Investigation”, OECD Digital Economy Papers, No: 107, OECD Publishing, pp. 1- 39. ZAKİ, Chahir; (2011) “Trade, Employment and Gender: Evi- dence from Egypt”, in Trade, Jobs and Inclusive Development in Africa, International Collaborative Initiative on Trade and Em- ployment (ICITE) Regional Conference, Organization of Eco- nomic Development and African Development Bank.
  • ZİVOT, Eric and Donald W. K. ANDREWS; (1992), “Further
  • Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock and the Unit- Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business Economic Statistics, (3), pp. 251-270.
There are 48 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Hüseyin Altay

Alper Yılmaz

Publication Date June 1, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Issue: 616

Cite

APA Altay, H., & Yılmaz, A. (2016). Türkiye’de İhracat Artışlarınınİstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisininİncelenmesi. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar(616), 75-86.
AMA Altay H, Yılmaz A. Türkiye’de İhracat Artışlarınınİstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisininİncelenmesi. FPEYD. June 2016;(616):75-86.
Chicago Altay, Hüseyin, and Alper Yılmaz. “Türkiye’de İhracat Artışlarınınİstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisininİncelenmesi”. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, no. 616 (June 2016): 75-86.
EndNote Altay H, Yılmaz A (June 1, 2016) Türkiye’de İhracat Artışlarınınİstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisininİncelenmesi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 616 75–86.
IEEE H. Altay and A. Yılmaz, “Türkiye’de İhracat Artışlarınınİstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisininİncelenmesi”, FPEYD, no. 616, pp. 75–86, June 2016.
ISNAD Altay, Hüseyin - Yılmaz, Alper. “Türkiye’de İhracat Artışlarınınİstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisininİncelenmesi”. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 616 (June 2016), 75-86.
JAMA Altay H, Yılmaz A. Türkiye’de İhracat Artışlarınınİstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisininİncelenmesi. FPEYD. 2016;:75–86.
MLA Altay, Hüseyin and Alper Yılmaz. “Türkiye’de İhracat Artışlarınınİstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisininİncelenmesi”. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, no. 616, 2016, pp. 75-86.
Vancouver Altay H, Yılmaz A. Türkiye’de İhracat Artışlarınınİstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisininİncelenmesi. FPEYD. 2016(616):75-86.