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The Validity of Quadruple Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence From BRICS and MINT Countries

Year 2023, Volume: 41 Issue: 3, 410 - 431, 27.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1223281

Abstract

The current account deficit is a macroeconomic indicator affecting significantly economic stability, especially in developing countries. In the relationship of the current account balance with the budget deficit and saving-investment deficits, the view that the output gap may be an important factor in exhibiting the role of the real economy on the current account deficit has become crucial today. In this context, this paper proposes to investigate quadruple deficit in BRICS and MINT countries using the Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test and panel ARDL model during the period of 2002-2021. The findings show the Quadruple Deficit Hypothesis is valid for all panel only in the long-run period. According to country-specific results, this hypothesis is valid for Brazil, Rusia and South Africa in the short-run period while Brazil, Russia, China, Mexico, and Indoesia in the long-run period.

References

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  • Asteriou, D., Pilbeam, K., & Pratiwi, C. E. (2021). Public debt and economic growth: panel data evidence for Asian countries. Journal of Economics and Finance, 45, 270-287. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-020-09515-7
  • Aytaç, D., & Saraç, T. B. (2021). Türkiye’de üçüz açık hipotezinin geçerliliği. Fiscaoeconomia, 5(2), 505-521. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.910423
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., & E. Lau (2007). Dynamics of fiscal and current account deficits in Thailand: An empirical investigation. Journal of Economic Studies (34), 454–475. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580710830943
  • Banday, U. J., & Aneja, R. (2016). How budget deficit and current account deficit are interrelated in Indian economy. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 23(1), 237-246.
  • Baxter, M. (1995). International trade and business cycles. Iİn Grossman, H. and Rogoff, K. (eds.), Handbook of International Economics, Amsterdam, North Holland, vol. 3, chapter 35.
  • Bilman, M. E., & Karaoğlan, S. (2020). Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes? Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(1), 205-215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.09.003
  • Blanchard, O., & Giavazzi, F. (2002). Current account deficits in the euro area: Tthe end of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2002(2), 147-209.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • Calderon, C., Chong, A., & Loayza, N. (2000). Determinants of current account deficits in developing countries. No(23398). The World Bank.
  • Çoban, H., & Balıkçıoğlu, E. (2016). Triple deficit or twin divergence: A dynamic panel analysis. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 12(1), 271-280.
  • Downes, D., & Moore, W. R. (2007). Does the exchange rate regime influence the relationship between the output gap and the current account? Applied Economics, 39(15), 1955-1960. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600707035
  • Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics Aand Statistics, 80(4), 549-560. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557825
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  • Epaphra, M. (2017). The twin deficits hypothesis: An empirical analysis for Tanzania. Romanian Economic Journal, 20(65), 2-34.
  • Fazlılar, T. A. ve Oral, T. (2020). Türkiye ve PIIGS (Portekiz, İrlanda, İtalya, Yunanistan, İspanya) ülkelerinde dördüz açık analizi [Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi]. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
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  • Güriş, S., Yılgör, M., & Kömüryakan, F. (2019). Üçüz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliğinin analizi: Panel veri yaklaşımı. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi, 8(3), 91-101. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ssrj/issue/47195/607963
  • Holmes, M. J. (2010). A reassessment of the twin deficits relationship. Applied Economics Letters, 17(12), 1209-1212. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840902845434
  • Kalim, R., & Hassan, M. S. (2013). What lies behind fiscal deficit: Aa case of Pakistan. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 9(40), 96-113.
  • Karaçor, Z., Alptekin, V., Akar, T., & Akar, G. (2012). İstikrar mı, istikrarsızlık mı? Türkiye’de üçüz açık analizi. Türkiye Ekonomisi Kurumu 3. Uluslararası Ekonomi Konferansı, 1-3.
  • Karagöz, H., & Ahmed, S. H. (2021). The triple deficit hypothesis and its effects on economic growth: Case of Turkey. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İİBF dergisi, 11(2), 67-77. https://doi.org/10.47147/ksuiibf.1036399
  • Karahan, Ö. (2021). Analysing the presence of “Triple Deficit” in Turkey’s economy. International Journal of Economics and Management Systems, 6. 537-546.
  • Kesgingöz, H., & Ahmed, S. H. (2021). The Triple deficit hypothesis effects on economic growth: Case of Turkey. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(2), 67-77. DOI: 10.47147/ksuiibf.1036399
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DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR

Year 2023, Volume: 41 Issue: 3, 410 - 431, 27.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1223281

Abstract

Özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde cari işlemler açığı, ekonomik istikrarı önemli ölçüde etkileyen makroekonomik bir gösterge olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Son yıllarda bütçe açığı, tasarruf-yatırım açığı ve cari işlemler açığı arasındaki ilişkide, çıktı açığının da önemli bir faktör olabileceği düşüncesi önem kazanmıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada 2002-2021 dönemi için BRICS ve MINT ülkelerinde dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerliliği Durbin-Hausman eşbütünleşme testi ve Panel ARDL modeli ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular tüm panel için sadece uzun dönemde dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Ülke bazında sonuçlara göre ise, kısa dönemde Brezilya, Rusya ve Güney Afrika’da, uzun dönemde ise Brezilya, Rusya, Çin, Meksika ve Endonezya’da dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

References

  • Abbas, S. M. A. et al. (2010). Fiscal policy and Current Account. IMF Working Paper No 10/121. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1612591
  • Abell, J. D. (1990). Twin deficits during the 1980s: An empirical investigation. Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(1), 81-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/0164-0704(90)90057-H
  • Akbaş, Y. E., & Lebe, F. (2016). Current account deficit, budget deficit and savings gap: Iis the twin or triplet deficit hypothesis valid in G7 countries? Prague Economic Papers, 2016(3), 271-286.
  • Akıncı M., Akıncı G. Y., & Yılmaz Ö. (2016). Dördüz açıklar; ütopya mı yoksa gerçek mi? PARADOX Ekonomi, Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi, 12(1), 22-47.
  • Akpınar, A., & Çelik, N. (2022). OECD Ülkelerinde dördüz açık hipotezinin araştırılması [Yayınlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi]. İzmir Katip Çelebi Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Altunöz, U. (2018). Cari açık, bütçe açığı ve yatırım-tasarruf açığı bağlamında Türkiye’nin üçüz açık analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 175, 115-139.
  • Asteriou, D., Pilbeam, K., & Pratiwi, C. E. (2021). Public debt and economic growth: panel data evidence for Asian countries. Journal of Economics and Finance, 45, 270-287. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-020-09515-7
  • Aytaç, D., & Saraç, T. B. (2021). Türkiye’de üçüz açık hipotezinin geçerliliği. Fiscaoeconomia, 5(2), 505-521. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.910423
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., & E. Lau (2007). Dynamics of fiscal and current account deficits in Thailand: An empirical investigation. Journal of Economic Studies (34), 454–475. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580710830943
  • Banday, U. J., & Aneja, R. (2016). How budget deficit and current account deficit are interrelated in Indian economy. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 23(1), 237-246.
  • Baxter, M. (1995). International trade and business cycles. Iİn Grossman, H. and Rogoff, K. (eds.), Handbook of International Economics, Amsterdam, North Holland, vol. 3, chapter 35.
  • Bilman, M. E., & Karaoğlan, S. (2020). Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes? Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(1), 205-215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.09.003
  • Blanchard, O., & Giavazzi, F. (2002). Current account deficits in the euro area: Tthe end of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2002(2), 147-209.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • Calderon, C., Chong, A., & Loayza, N. (2000). Determinants of current account deficits in developing countries. No(23398). The World Bank.
  • Çoban, H., & Balıkçıoğlu, E. (2016). Triple deficit or twin divergence: A dynamic panel analysis. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 12(1), 271-280.
  • Downes, D., & Moore, W. R. (2007). Does the exchange rate regime influence the relationship between the output gap and the current account? Applied Economics, 39(15), 1955-1960. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600707035
  • Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics Aand Statistics, 80(4), 549-560. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557825
  • Ejder, H. L. & Çaşkurlu, E. (2020). Makroekonomik dengede üçüz açık sorunu: Türkiye için 1975-2015 dönemi ARDL model ile tahmin edilmesi. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 42(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.763883
  • El-Baz, O. (2014). Empirical investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis: The Egyptian case (1990-2012). MRPA Paper 53428, University Library of Munich, Germany, 1-25. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53428/
  • Epaphra, M. (2017). The twin deficits hypothesis: An empirical analysis for Tanzania. Romanian Economic Journal, 20(65), 2-34.
  • Fazlılar, T. A. ve Oral, T. (2020). Türkiye ve PIIGS (Portekiz, İrlanda, İtalya, Yunanistan, İspanya) ülkelerinde dördüz açık analizi [Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi]. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Fleming, J. M. (1962). Domestic financial policies under fixed and under floating exchange rates. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 10, 369–80. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451968873.024 Forte, F., & Magazzino, C. (2015). Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area. Journal of Social and Economic Development, 17(2), 148-166. 10.1007/s40847-015-0013-4
  • Güriş, S., Yılgör, M., & Kömüryakan, F. (2019). Üçüz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliğinin analizi: Panel veri yaklaşımı. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi, 8(3), 91-101. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ssrj/issue/47195/607963
  • Holmes, M. J. (2010). A reassessment of the twin deficits relationship. Applied Economics Letters, 17(12), 1209-1212. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840902845434
  • Kalim, R., & Hassan, M. S. (2013). What lies behind fiscal deficit: Aa case of Pakistan. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 9(40), 96-113.
  • Karaçor, Z., Alptekin, V., Akar, T., & Akar, G. (2012). İstikrar mı, istikrarsızlık mı? Türkiye’de üçüz açık analizi. Türkiye Ekonomisi Kurumu 3. Uluslararası Ekonomi Konferansı, 1-3.
  • Karagöz, H., & Ahmed, S. H. (2021). The triple deficit hypothesis and its effects on economic growth: Case of Turkey. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İİBF dergisi, 11(2), 67-77. https://doi.org/10.47147/ksuiibf.1036399
  • Karahan, Ö. (2021). Analysing the presence of “Triple Deficit” in Turkey’s economy. International Journal of Economics and Management Systems, 6. 537-546.
  • Kesgingöz, H., & Ahmed, S. H. (2021). The Triple deficit hypothesis effects on economic growth: Case of Turkey. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(2), 67-77. DOI: 10.47147/ksuiibf.1036399
  • Kim, C. H., & Kim, D. (2006). Does Korea have twin deficits? Applied Economics Letters, 13(10), 675-680. Kim, S. and Roubini, N. (2003) Twin deficits or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the US. New York University.
  • Kim, S., & Roubini, N. (2008). Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the US. Journal of Iinternational Economics, 74(2), 362-383.
  • Kiran, B. (2011). On the twin deficits hypothesis: Eevidence from Turkey. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 11(1), 59-66.
  • Kohler, K. (2022). Capital Flows and the Eurozone's North-South Divide. Politics & Society, 00323292231168251. Lau, E., Mansor, S. A., & Puah, C. H. (2010). Revival of the twin deficits in Asian crisis-affected countries. Economic Issues, 15 (1), 29-53.
  • Mabula, S., & Mutasa, F. (2019). The Effect of public debt on private investment in Tanzania. African Journal of Economic Review 7(1), 109-135.
  • Magazzino, C. (2012). The twin deficits phenomenon: Evidence from Italy. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 33(3), 65-80. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2333444 Magoti, E., Mabula, S., & Ngong’ho, S. B. (2020). Triple Deficit Hypothesis: A Panel ARDL and Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Causality for East African Countries. African Journal of Economic Review, 8(1), 144-161. 10.22004/ag.econ.301055
  • McTeer, B. (2008). «Our triple deficits». National Center for Policy Analaysis, No:613.
  • Merza, E., Alawin, M., & Bashayreh, A. (2012). The relationship between current account and government budget balance: The case of Kuwait. International Journal of Humanities and Social Ccience, 2(7), 168-177.
  • Miller, S. M., & Russek, F. S. (1989). Are the twin deficits really related? Contemporary Economic Policy, 7(4), 91-115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1989.tb00577.x
  • Milne, E., (1977). , The fiscal approach to the balance of payments. Economic Notes, 6(1), 89-107.
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There are 59 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Growth
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Deniz Erer 0000-0001-9977-9592

Publication Date September 27, 2023
Submission Date December 23, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 41 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Erer, D. (2023). DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 41(3), 410-431. https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1223281
AMA Erer D. DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. September 2023;41(3):410-431. doi:10.17065/huniibf.1223281
Chicago Erer, Deniz. “DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 41, no. 3 (September 2023): 410-31. https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1223281.
EndNote Erer D (September 1, 2023) DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 41 3 410–431.
IEEE D. Erer, “DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR”, Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 410–431, 2023, doi: 10.17065/huniibf.1223281.
ISNAD Erer, Deniz. “DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 41/3 (September 2023), 410-431. https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1223281.
JAMA Erer D. DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2023;41:410–431.
MLA Erer, Deniz. “DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 41, no. 3, 2023, pp. 410-31, doi:10.17065/huniibf.1223281.
Vancouver Erer D. DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2023;41(3):410-31.

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