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Effects of Credit Expansion and Borrowing on Economic Growth in the Emerging Eastern European Countries: Panel Data Analysis

Year 2019, Volume: 8 Issue: 4, 3152 - 3166, 31.12.2019
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.626222

Abstract

In this study, the economic and financial factors that may have impact
on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth of six countries among Eastern
European Region which are the fastest growing ones in the last 3 years
(2015-2018) according to the purchasing managers index (PMI) were examined. In
the period of 2002-2018, the effect of Credit Expansion and Debt Service Ratio
on GDP Growth was estimated by Panel Random Effects Specification. In a
significant part of the studies the findings verify the positive relationship
between credit expansion and GDP growth rate. However, it is observed that
there are different findings in studies examining the relationship between debt
service ratio and GDP growth rate. In the analysis period, the increase in debt
service ratio and Credit Expansion had a statistically significant positive
effect on GDP growth rate in the Emerging Eastern European Countries. 

References

  • Brasliņš, Ģ., Orlovs, A., & Braukša, I. (2012). GDP and lending behavior: empirical evidence for Latvia. Riga Technical University 53rd International Scientific Conference, (s. 1-6). Riga.
  • Breitung, J. (2000). The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 161–178.
  • Cappiello, L., Kadareja, A., Sørensen, C. K., & Protopapa, M. (2010). Do bank loans and credit standarts have impact on output? Working Paper Series 1150, European Central Bank. 7 8, 2019 tarihinde https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1150.pdf?090d3d0b2046c7d5425d2aa3d5fa6e04 adresinden alındı
  • Çapanoğlu, S. G. (2019). Vizegrad Şövalyesi krize karşı. İstanbul: İktisadi Kalkınma Vakfı. 8 5, 2019 tarihinde https://esozluk.ikv.org.tr/?ust_id=5&id=502 adresinden alındı
  • Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
  • Drehmann, M., & Juselius, M. (2012, September). Do debt service costs affect macroeconomic and financial stability. BIS Quarterly Review, 21-35.
  • Engle, R. F. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and. Econometrica, 55(2).
  • Garcia-Escribano, M., & Han, F. (2015). Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets. IMF Working Paper. 8 6, 2019 tarihinde https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15212.pdf adresinden alındı
  • Hausman, J. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46, 1251-1271.
  • Holmes, F. (2018, Nisan 2). The 6 Fastest Growing Countries In Emerging Europe. Forbes.
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
  • Juselius, M., & Kim, M. (2011). Sustainable Financial Obligations and Crisis. Helsinki: Helsinki Center of Economic Research.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, J. (2002). Unit root in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • Maddala, G., & Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61, 631-652.
  • Phillips, P., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
  • Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth In a Time of Debt. Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research. 09 24, 2019 tarihinde https://www.nber.org/papers/w15639.pdf adresinden alındı
  • Schclarek, A. (2004). Debt and Economic Growth in Developing and Industrial Countries. Working Papers from Lund University, Department of Economics.
  • Türker, H. (2015). Macaristan Ülke Rapu. İzmir: İzmir Ticaret Odası. 8 5, 2019 tarihinde http://izto.org.tr/demo_betanix/uploads/cms/yonetim.ieu.edu.tr/5606_1439211693.pdf adresinden alındı
  • Vurur, N., & Özen, E. (2013). Türkiye’de Mevduat Banka Kredisi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin İncelenmesi. Uşak Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(3), 117-131.
  • Zouhaier, H., & Fatma, M. (2014). Debt and Economic Growth. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 4(2), 440-448. 09 15, 2019 tarihinde alındı

Gelişmekte Olan Doğu Avrupa Ülkelerinde Kredi Genişlemesi ve Borçlanmanın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2019, Volume: 8 Issue: 4, 3152 - 3166, 31.12.2019
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.626222

Abstract

Bu çalışmada gelişmekte
olan Doğu Avrupa ülkelerinden satın alma yöneticileri endeksine (PMI) göre son
3 yılda (2015-2018) en başarılı performansı sergileyen altı Doğu Avrupa
ülkesinin (Çekya, Macaristan, Polonya, Rusya Federasyonu, Yunanistan ve
Türkiye) Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYIH) büyüme oranına etki eden ekonomik ve
finansal faktörler incelenmiştir. 2002 ve 2018 yıllarını kapsayan 16 yıllık
dönemde, Kredi Genişlemesi ve Borç Servis Oranının GSYIH büyüme oranı üzerindeki
etkisi Panel Rassal Etkiler Regresyon Modeli ile tahmin edilmiştir. Konuyla
ilgili yapılan çalışmaların önemli bir bölümünde elde edilen bulgular kredi
genişlemesi ve GSYIH büyüme oranı arasındaki pozitif ilişkiyi doğrulamaktadır.
Ancak borç servis servis oranı ve GSYIH büyüme oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi
inceleyen çalışmalarda farklı bulgulara ulaşıldığı görülmektedir.    Analiz döneminde gelişmekte olan Doğu
Avrupa ülkelerinde borç servis oranındaki artışın ve Kredi Genişlemesinin GSYIH
büyüme oranı üzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı pozitif etki yarattığı
gözlemlenmiştir.           

References

  • Brasliņš, Ģ., Orlovs, A., & Braukša, I. (2012). GDP and lending behavior: empirical evidence for Latvia. Riga Technical University 53rd International Scientific Conference, (s. 1-6). Riga.
  • Breitung, J. (2000). The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 161–178.
  • Cappiello, L., Kadareja, A., Sørensen, C. K., & Protopapa, M. (2010). Do bank loans and credit standarts have impact on output? Working Paper Series 1150, European Central Bank. 7 8, 2019 tarihinde https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1150.pdf?090d3d0b2046c7d5425d2aa3d5fa6e04 adresinden alındı
  • Çapanoğlu, S. G. (2019). Vizegrad Şövalyesi krize karşı. İstanbul: İktisadi Kalkınma Vakfı. 8 5, 2019 tarihinde https://esozluk.ikv.org.tr/?ust_id=5&id=502 adresinden alındı
  • Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
  • Drehmann, M., & Juselius, M. (2012, September). Do debt service costs affect macroeconomic and financial stability. BIS Quarterly Review, 21-35.
  • Engle, R. F. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and. Econometrica, 55(2).
  • Garcia-Escribano, M., & Han, F. (2015). Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets. IMF Working Paper. 8 6, 2019 tarihinde https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15212.pdf adresinden alındı
  • Hausman, J. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46, 1251-1271.
  • Holmes, F. (2018, Nisan 2). The 6 Fastest Growing Countries In Emerging Europe. Forbes.
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
  • Juselius, M., & Kim, M. (2011). Sustainable Financial Obligations and Crisis. Helsinki: Helsinki Center of Economic Research.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, J. (2002). Unit root in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • Maddala, G., & Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61, 631-652.
  • Phillips, P., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
  • Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth In a Time of Debt. Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research. 09 24, 2019 tarihinde https://www.nber.org/papers/w15639.pdf adresinden alındı
  • Schclarek, A. (2004). Debt and Economic Growth in Developing and Industrial Countries. Working Papers from Lund University, Department of Economics.
  • Türker, H. (2015). Macaristan Ülke Rapu. İzmir: İzmir Ticaret Odası. 8 5, 2019 tarihinde http://izto.org.tr/demo_betanix/uploads/cms/yonetim.ieu.edu.tr/5606_1439211693.pdf adresinden alındı
  • Vurur, N., & Özen, E. (2013). Türkiye’de Mevduat Banka Kredisi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin İncelenmesi. Uşak Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(3), 117-131.
  • Zouhaier, H., & Fatma, M. (2014). Debt and Economic Growth. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 4(2), 440-448. 09 15, 2019 tarihinde alındı
There are 20 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mehmet İslamoglu 0000-0002-4416-0888

Publication Date December 31, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 8 Issue: 4

Cite

APA İslamoglu, M. (2019). Gelişmekte Olan Doğu Avrupa Ülkelerinde Kredi Genişlemesi ve Borçlanmanın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Panel Veri Analizi. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(4), 3152-3166. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.626222

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