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Purchasing Power Parity Theory Test in Turkey: (1923-1980) Cliometric Fourier Analysis

Year 2023, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 145 - 154, 30.12.2023

Hasan Azazi Müşerref Arık Melike Buse Akcan

Abstract

The study is a cliometric analysis created to determine the stability level of purchasing power parity (PPT) in Turkey between the years 1923-1980. The absence of any study examining the post-republican period with the Fourier analysis method shows the contribution of this study to the literature. Real exchange rate values for the relevant years were used in the study. These values were obtained using the State Institute of Statistics report.. In the study, Unit Root Tests (ADF, Phillips-Perron) were used assuming that the series were linear and Fourier ADF Unit Root Tests were used assuming that the series were non-linear. The test result shows that the PPP theory is not valid between the relevant years.

Keywords

Purchasing Power Parity Fourier ADF Cliometric Analysis ADF Phillips-Perron

References

  • Ay, İ. C. (2021). OECD Ülkelerinde Satın Alma Gücü Paritesinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi, Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 180-191.
  • Aydın, M. (2019). Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi Hipotezi Geçerliliğinin Fourier Birim Kök Testleri ile İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği, Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (30). 35-48.
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E., & Nziramasanga, M. T. (2010). Purchasing Power Parity in African Countries: Evidence from Panel SURADF Test, South African Journal of Economics, 78(1). 40-56. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2010.01231.x
  • Bozgeyik, Y., & Aydın, A. (2019). Seçilmiş Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Satın Alma Gücü Paritesinin Geçerliliğine İlişkin Ampirik Bir Çalışma, OPUS Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(19). 2068-2089.
  • Canarella, G., Miller, S. M., & Pollard, S. K. (2014). Purchasing power parity between the UK and Germany: The euro era, open economies review, 25(4). 677-699. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-014-9309-9
  • Cassel, G. (1921). The World's Monetary Problems, Londra: Constable
  • Cerato, M., & Sarantis, N. (2008). Symmetry, proportionality and the purchasing power parity: Evidence from panel cointegration tests, International Review of Economics and Finance, (17). 56-65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2006.03.001
  • Chang, T., & Tzeng, H. W. (2013). Purchasing power parity in nine transition countries: panel SURKSS Test, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 18(1). 74-81. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.457
  • Chang, T., Lee, C. H., & Chou, P. I. (2012). Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in G-7 countries, Applied Economics Letters, 19(2). 123-128. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2011.568389
  • Choji, N. M., & Sek, S. K. (2017). Testing for purchasing power parity in the long-run for ASEAN-5. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4981001
  • Coşkun, N. (2020). Mutlak satın alma gücü hipotezi, Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 5(1). 41-55.
  • Coşkun, N., & Ballı, E. (2021). Satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerliliğinin sınanması: OECD ülkeleri örneği, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 19(4). 1-13.
  • Destek, M. A., & Okumuş, İ. (2016). Satın alma gücü paritesi hipotezi geçerliliğinin fourier birim kök testleri ile incelenmesi: OECD ülkeleri örneği, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 15(1).73-87.
  • Devlet İstatistik Enstitüsü, (2001) İstatistik Göstergeler 1923-1998, Ankara
  • Dickey, D.A., & W.A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427–431.
  • Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1). 196-199
  • Erdoğmuş, M. (2021). An analysis of the validity of absolute purchasing power parity: the case of Turkish lira and British pound, Sosyoekonomi, 29(50). 51-71. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.03
  • Gozgor, G. (2011). Purchasing power parity hypothesis among the main trading partners of Turkey, Economics Bullettin, 31(2). 1432-1438.
  • Gövdeli, T., & Sumer, S. (2021). Testing the purchase power parity hypothesis for BRICS: evidence from fourier unit root and cointegration test, Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3). 1394-1406. https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.822369
  • Ha, M. A. T. T. (2019). Testing the evidence of purchasing power parity for southeast Asia countries, Econometrics For Financial Applications, (760). 1061-1077. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73150-6_76
  • Hassan, A. F. M. K., & Salim, R. (2013). Does The Balassa–Samuelson Theory explaın the link between relative population growth and purchasıng power parity?, The Singapore Economic Review, 58(01), 1350007. https://doi.org/10.1142/s0217590813500070
  • Kalyoncu, H., Kula F., & Alper, A. (2010). The validity of purchasing power parity hypothesis in Middle East and Northern Africa countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2010(4), 125-131
  • King, A. (2021). The triangular purchasing power parity hypothesis: A comment, The World Economy, 44(3). 837-848. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13050
  • Koçak, İ., & Özbek, S. (2020). Satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerliliği: durağanlık ve birim kök testlerinden yeni kanıtlar, Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(1). 22-31.
  • Liu, S., Zhang, D., & Chang, T. (2012). Purchasing power parity – nonlinear threshold unit root test for transition countries. Applied Economics Letters, 19(18), 1781–1785. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2012.654905
  • Lu, Y. C. R., Chang, T. Y., Lee, K. C., & Tzeng, H. W. (2011). An empirical test of the purchasing power parity for transition economies: Panel SURADF tests, Applied Economics Letters, 18(17). 1691-1696. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2011.560102
  • MacDonald, R. (1996). Panel unit root tests and real exchange rates, Economics Letters, (50). 7-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(95)00730-X
  • Mike, F. & Alper, A. E. (2020). Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için işsizlik histerisinin incelenmesi: fourier ADF test bulguları, Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(1). 1-14. https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.66161
  • Murad, S. M. W., & Hossain, M. A. (2018). The ASEAN experience of the purchasing power parity theory, Financial Innovation, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-018-0113-1
  • Wang, P. J., & Liu, Z. Y. (2018). A triangular purchasing power parity hypothesis, World Economy, 41(11). 3071-3097. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12656
  • Wu, J. F., Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Chang, T. Y. (2018). Revisiting purchasing power parity in G6 countries: an application of smooth time-varying cointegration approach, Emprica, 45(1). 187-196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-016-9355-1
  • Yasa, B. D. (2017). 1963-1989 döneminde Türkiye’de devlet müdahaleciliğinin imalat sanayi üzerindeki etkisi: kliometrik bir inceleme, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(2).

Türkiye'de Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi Teorisi Testi: (1923-1980) Kliometrik Fourier Analizi

Year 2023, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 145 - 154, 30.12.2023

Hasan Azazi Müşerref Arık Melike Buse Akcan

Abstract

Çalışma, Türkiye'de satın alma gücü paritesinin (PPT) 1923-1980 yılları arasındaki istikrar düzeyini belirlemek amacıyla oluşturulmuş kliometrik bir analizdir. Cumhuriyet sonrası dönemi Fourier analizi yöntemiyle inceleyen herhangi bir çalışmanın bulunmaması bu çalışmanın literatüre katkısını göstermektedir. Çalışmada ilgili yıllara ait reel döviz kuru değerleri kullanılmıştır. Bu değerler Devlet İstatistik Enstitüsü raporu kullanılarak elde edilmiştir. Çalışmada serilerin doğrusal olduğu varsayılarak Birim Kök Testleri (ADF, Phillips-Perron), serilerin doğrusal olmadığı varsayarak Fourier ADF Birim Kök Testleri kullanılmıştır. Test sonucu ilgili yıllar arasında PPP teorisinin geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

Satınalma Gücü Paritesi Fourier ADF Kliometrik Analiz ADF Phiilips-Perron

References

  • Ay, İ. C. (2021). OECD Ülkelerinde Satın Alma Gücü Paritesinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi, Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 180-191.
  • Aydın, M. (2019). Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi Hipotezi Geçerliliğinin Fourier Birim Kök Testleri ile İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği, Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (30). 35-48.
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E., & Nziramasanga, M. T. (2010). Purchasing Power Parity in African Countries: Evidence from Panel SURADF Test, South African Journal of Economics, 78(1). 40-56. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2010.01231.x
  • Bozgeyik, Y., & Aydın, A. (2019). Seçilmiş Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Satın Alma Gücü Paritesinin Geçerliliğine İlişkin Ampirik Bir Çalışma, OPUS Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(19). 2068-2089.
  • Canarella, G., Miller, S. M., & Pollard, S. K. (2014). Purchasing power parity between the UK and Germany: The euro era, open economies review, 25(4). 677-699. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-014-9309-9
  • Cassel, G. (1921). The World's Monetary Problems, Londra: Constable
  • Cerato, M., & Sarantis, N. (2008). Symmetry, proportionality and the purchasing power parity: Evidence from panel cointegration tests, International Review of Economics and Finance, (17). 56-65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2006.03.001
  • Chang, T., & Tzeng, H. W. (2013). Purchasing power parity in nine transition countries: panel SURKSS Test, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 18(1). 74-81. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.457
  • Chang, T., Lee, C. H., & Chou, P. I. (2012). Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in G-7 countries, Applied Economics Letters, 19(2). 123-128. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2011.568389
  • Choji, N. M., & Sek, S. K. (2017). Testing for purchasing power parity in the long-run for ASEAN-5. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4981001
  • Coşkun, N. (2020). Mutlak satın alma gücü hipotezi, Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 5(1). 41-55.
  • Coşkun, N., & Ballı, E. (2021). Satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerliliğinin sınanması: OECD ülkeleri örneği, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 19(4). 1-13.
  • Destek, M. A., & Okumuş, İ. (2016). Satın alma gücü paritesi hipotezi geçerliliğinin fourier birim kök testleri ile incelenmesi: OECD ülkeleri örneği, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 15(1).73-87.
  • Devlet İstatistik Enstitüsü, (2001) İstatistik Göstergeler 1923-1998, Ankara
  • Dickey, D.A., & W.A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427–431.
  • Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1). 196-199
  • Erdoğmuş, M. (2021). An analysis of the validity of absolute purchasing power parity: the case of Turkish lira and British pound, Sosyoekonomi, 29(50). 51-71. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.03
  • Gozgor, G. (2011). Purchasing power parity hypothesis among the main trading partners of Turkey, Economics Bullettin, 31(2). 1432-1438.
  • Gövdeli, T., & Sumer, S. (2021). Testing the purchase power parity hypothesis for BRICS: evidence from fourier unit root and cointegration test, Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3). 1394-1406. https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.822369
  • Ha, M. A. T. T. (2019). Testing the evidence of purchasing power parity for southeast Asia countries, Econometrics For Financial Applications, (760). 1061-1077. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73150-6_76
  • Hassan, A. F. M. K., & Salim, R. (2013). Does The Balassa–Samuelson Theory explaın the link between relative population growth and purchasıng power parity?, The Singapore Economic Review, 58(01), 1350007. https://doi.org/10.1142/s0217590813500070
  • Kalyoncu, H., Kula F., & Alper, A. (2010). The validity of purchasing power parity hypothesis in Middle East and Northern Africa countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2010(4), 125-131
  • King, A. (2021). The triangular purchasing power parity hypothesis: A comment, The World Economy, 44(3). 837-848. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13050
  • Koçak, İ., & Özbek, S. (2020). Satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerliliği: durağanlık ve birim kök testlerinden yeni kanıtlar, Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(1). 22-31.
  • Liu, S., Zhang, D., & Chang, T. (2012). Purchasing power parity – nonlinear threshold unit root test for transition countries. Applied Economics Letters, 19(18), 1781–1785. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2012.654905
  • Lu, Y. C. R., Chang, T. Y., Lee, K. C., & Tzeng, H. W. (2011). An empirical test of the purchasing power parity for transition economies: Panel SURADF tests, Applied Economics Letters, 18(17). 1691-1696. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2011.560102
  • MacDonald, R. (1996). Panel unit root tests and real exchange rates, Economics Letters, (50). 7-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(95)00730-X
  • Mike, F. & Alper, A. E. (2020). Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için işsizlik histerisinin incelenmesi: fourier ADF test bulguları, Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(1). 1-14. https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.66161
  • Murad, S. M. W., & Hossain, M. A. (2018). The ASEAN experience of the purchasing power parity theory, Financial Innovation, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-018-0113-1
  • Wang, P. J., & Liu, Z. Y. (2018). A triangular purchasing power parity hypothesis, World Economy, 41(11). 3071-3097. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12656
  • Wu, J. F., Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Chang, T. Y. (2018). Revisiting purchasing power parity in G6 countries: an application of smooth time-varying cointegration approach, Emprica, 45(1). 187-196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-016-9355-1
  • Yasa, B. D. (2017). 1963-1989 döneminde Türkiye’de devlet müdahaleciliğinin imalat sanayi üzerindeki etkisi: kliometrik bir inceleme, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(2).
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Applied Economics (Other)
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Hasan Azazi 0000-0003-4241-9857

Müşerref Arık 0000-0002-5334-8743

Melike Buse Akcan 0000-0001-5101-1613

Early Pub Date October 16, 2023
Publication Date December 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 8 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Azazi, H., Arık, M., & Akcan, M. B. (2023). Purchasing Power Parity Theory Test in Turkey: (1923-1980) Cliometric Fourier Analysis. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 8(2), 145-154.
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