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Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators that May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019)

Year 2024, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 490 - 498, 22.04.2024

Eylül Kabakçı Günay Meltem Ince Yenilmez

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1338483

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to ascertain whether the export-import coverage ratio (EXIM), the income of natural resources (NATR), labour force participation rate (LFPR), and foreign direct investment (FDI) had a positive or negative impact on economic growth for 34 Sub-Saharan African countries using data from 1990 to 2019. The change in Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (%) is used in the study as a proxy for the economic growth variable, and Sub-Saharan African nations were categorized based on the United Nations' income classification system to create more homogeneous groups and consequently more accurate analysis results. To do this, 34 Sub-Saharan African nations were divided into three income categories: lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and low-income. The income categories established by the UN were considered while drawing this distinction. This divide led to the analysis of 18 low-income nations, 12 lower-middle-income countries, and 4 upper-middle-income countries. One of the dynamic panel data analysis techniques, the two-step system GMM panel data analysis, was used as the econometric analysis approach. According to the estimations, FDI in lower-middle-income sub-Saharan African countries was statistically significant and inversely related to economic growth; it was observed that the coverage ratio of exports to imports has a statistically significant and linear relationship. None of these independent variables were found to influence economic growth in low-income sub-Saharan African countries. There is a statistically significant correlation between the LFPR and NATR and economic development in the upper-middle income category of nations analyzed. As a result, the influence of factors varied and fluctuated on economic growth based on the income levels of different groups.

Keywords

Economics growth Sub-saharan Africa Export-import coverage ratio Foreign direct investment Income classification

Ethical Statement

During the writing process of the study “Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators that May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019)” scientific rules, ethical and citation rules were followed. No falsification was made on the collected data and this study was not sent to any other academic publication medium for evaluation. Since the data analysis in this study was conducted using an econometric secondary data set, no ethics committee permission was obtained.

References

  • Açıkgöz, Şenay and Mert, Merter. 2011. “Küreselleşme ekonomik büyümeyi etkiliyor mu? Türkiye örneği”. 12.Uluslararası Ekonometrik Yöneylem Araştırması ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, Denizli: Pamukkale Üniversitesi, s.701-716.
  • Arellano, Manuel and Bover, Olympia. 1998. “Another look at the ınstrumental variable estimation of error- components models”, Journal of Econometrics, 68 (1), 29-51.
  • Baltagi, Badi. 2005. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Sussex: John Wiley and Sons Ltd.
  • Barry Hadiatou. 2010. “Globalization and economic growth in Sub- Saharan Africa”. Gettysburg Economic Review, 4 (4) http://cupola.gettysburg.edu/ger/vol4/iss1/4
  • Batrancea, Larissa, Malar Mozhi Rathnaswamy, and Ioan Batrancea. 2021. "A Panel Data Analysis of Economic Growth Determinants in 34 African Countries" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 6: 260. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14060260
  • Blundell, Richarf. and Bond, Stephen. 1998. Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
  • Bun, Maurice. and Windmeijer, Frank. 2010, “The weak instrument problem of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models”, Econometrics Journal, 13, (1), 95-126
  • Chang, Chun-Ping. and Lee, Chien-Chang. 2010. “Globalization and economic growth: a political economy analysis for OECD countries”, Global Economic Review, 39(2), 151-173.
  • Garner, Phillip, Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (January 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=853184 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.853184
  • Higgins, K. L. (2015). Economic Growth and Sustainability: Systems Thinking for a Complex World. San Diego: Academic Press.
  • Hussen, M.S. (2023), "Institutional quality and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: a panel data approach", Journal of Economics and Development, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-11-2022-0231
  • Kılıç, Cüneyt. 2015. “Effects of globalization on economic growth: panel data analysis for developing countries”. Economic Insights- Trends and Challenges, 9(1), 1-11.
  • Osterloh, Steffen. 2012. “Words speak louder than actions: the impact of politics on economic performance”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 40(3), 318–36.
  • Pesaran, Muhammed Hashem. 2004. “General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels”. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 0435.
  • Pesaran, Muhammed Hashem. 2003. “A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence”. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 0346. http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research- files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe0346.pdf
  • Pesaran, M. H. and Yamagata, T.(2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), (pp.50-93).
  • Rao, Bhaskara and Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya. 2011. “Globalization and growth in the low income African countries with the extreme bound analysis”, Economic Modelling, 28, 795-805.
  • Sakyi, Daniel. 2012. “Economic globalization, democracy and income in Sub-Saharan Africa: a panel cointegration analysis”, Global Economy and Finance Journal, 5(1), 1-16.
  • Samimi, Parisa. ve Jenatabadi Hashem Salarzadeh. 2014. “Globalization and economic growth: empirical evidence on the role of complementarities”. PloS ONE, 9(4). http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/metrics? id=10.1371/journal.pone.0087824
  • Seyram, Asafo Matuka, Adelajda and Dominic Nyendu. 2019. “External debt and economic growth: two-step system GMM evidence for sub-Saharan Africa countries” International Journal of Business, Economics and Management, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 39-48.
  • UNCTAD (2021). World investment report 2021: Investing in sustainable recovery. Geneva.
  • Yanar Rüstem. ve Şahbaz Ahmet. 2013. “Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde küreselleşmenin yoksulluk ve gelir eşitsizliği üzerindeki etkileri.” Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 8(3), 55- 74.

Gelir Gruplarına Göre Sınıflandırılmış Sahra Altı Afrika Ülkelerinin Ekonomik Büyümesini Etkileyen Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Göstergelerin Panel Veri Analizi ile Sınanması (1990-2019)

Year 2024, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 490 - 498, 22.04.2024

Eylül Kabakçı Günay Meltem Ince Yenilmez

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1338483

Abstract

Çalışmada 1990-2019 yılları arasındaki veriler kullanılarak, seçilmiş Sahra altı Afrika ülkeleri için doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları, işgücüne katılım oranı, ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı ve doğal kaynak gelirlerinin ekonomik büyümeyi arttırıcı ya da azaltıcı yönde etkisi bulunup bulunmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Ekonomik büyüme değişkenini Kişi Başına Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla Yıllık Değişim (%)’in temsil ettiği çalışmada, gelir farklılıklarının da etkisi görebilmek amacıyla Sahra Altı Afrika ülkeleri Birleşmiş Milletlerin gelir sınıflandırmasına göre sınıflandırılmış, düşük gelirli ülkeler, alt-orta gelirli ülkeler, üst orta gelirli ülkeler olarak ayrılmıştır. Bu ayrım yapılırken Birleşmiş Milletlerin belirlemiş olduğu gelir aralıkları dikkate alınmıştır. Bu ayrım sonucunda düşük gelir sınıfında 19, alt-orta gelir sınıfında 12, üst-orta gelir sınıfında ise 4 ülke analiz edilmiştir. Ekonometrik analiz yöntemi olarak dinamik panel veri analiz yöntemlerinden olan iki aşamalı sistem GMM panel veri analizi kullanılmıştır. Gerçekleştirilen tahminler sonucunda düşük gelirli Sahra altı Afrika ülkelerinde ekonomik büyüme üzerinde söz konusu bağımsız değişkenlerden hiçbirinin etkisine rastlanmamışken; alt-orta gelirli sahra altı Afrika ülkelerinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve ters yönde; ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranının ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve doğrusal yönde ilişkiye sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Üst-Orta gelir grubundaki ülkeler ile yapılan analizde ise işgücüne katılım oranının ve doğal kaynak gelirlerinin ekonomik büyüme ile istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişkiye sahip olduğu görülürken, ilişkinin yönüne bakıldığında ise işgücüne katılım oranının doğrusal, doğal kaynak gelirlerinin ise ters yönde ilişkiye sahip olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Sonuç olarak denilebilir ki gelir gruplarına göre ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkisi olan değişkenler farklılaşmaktadır.

Keywords

Ekonomik büyüme Sahra Altı Afrika İhracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı Doğrudan yabancı yatırım Gelir sınıflandırması

References

  • Açıkgöz, Şenay and Mert, Merter. 2011. “Küreselleşme ekonomik büyümeyi etkiliyor mu? Türkiye örneği”. 12.Uluslararası Ekonometrik Yöneylem Araştırması ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, Denizli: Pamukkale Üniversitesi, s.701-716.
  • Arellano, Manuel and Bover, Olympia. 1998. “Another look at the ınstrumental variable estimation of error- components models”, Journal of Econometrics, 68 (1), 29-51.
  • Baltagi, Badi. 2005. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Sussex: John Wiley and Sons Ltd.
  • Barry Hadiatou. 2010. “Globalization and economic growth in Sub- Saharan Africa”. Gettysburg Economic Review, 4 (4) http://cupola.gettysburg.edu/ger/vol4/iss1/4
  • Batrancea, Larissa, Malar Mozhi Rathnaswamy, and Ioan Batrancea. 2021. "A Panel Data Analysis of Economic Growth Determinants in 34 African Countries" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 6: 260. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14060260
  • Blundell, Richarf. and Bond, Stephen. 1998. Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
  • Bun, Maurice. and Windmeijer, Frank. 2010, “The weak instrument problem of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models”, Econometrics Journal, 13, (1), 95-126
  • Chang, Chun-Ping. and Lee, Chien-Chang. 2010. “Globalization and economic growth: a political economy analysis for OECD countries”, Global Economic Review, 39(2), 151-173.
  • Garner, Phillip, Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (January 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=853184 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.853184
  • Higgins, K. L. (2015). Economic Growth and Sustainability: Systems Thinking for a Complex World. San Diego: Academic Press.
  • Hussen, M.S. (2023), "Institutional quality and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: a panel data approach", Journal of Economics and Development, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-11-2022-0231
  • Kılıç, Cüneyt. 2015. “Effects of globalization on economic growth: panel data analysis for developing countries”. Economic Insights- Trends and Challenges, 9(1), 1-11.
  • Osterloh, Steffen. 2012. “Words speak louder than actions: the impact of politics on economic performance”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 40(3), 318–36.
  • Pesaran, Muhammed Hashem. 2004. “General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels”. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 0435.
  • Pesaran, Muhammed Hashem. 2003. “A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence”. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 0346. http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research- files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe0346.pdf
  • Pesaran, M. H. and Yamagata, T.(2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), (pp.50-93).
  • Rao, Bhaskara and Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya. 2011. “Globalization and growth in the low income African countries with the extreme bound analysis”, Economic Modelling, 28, 795-805.
  • Sakyi, Daniel. 2012. “Economic globalization, democracy and income in Sub-Saharan Africa: a panel cointegration analysis”, Global Economy and Finance Journal, 5(1), 1-16.
  • Samimi, Parisa. ve Jenatabadi Hashem Salarzadeh. 2014. “Globalization and economic growth: empirical evidence on the role of complementarities”. PloS ONE, 9(4). http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/metrics? id=10.1371/journal.pone.0087824
  • Seyram, Asafo Matuka, Adelajda and Dominic Nyendu. 2019. “External debt and economic growth: two-step system GMM evidence for sub-Saharan Africa countries” International Journal of Business, Economics and Management, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 39-48.
  • UNCTAD (2021). World investment report 2021: Investing in sustainable recovery. Geneva.
  • Yanar Rüstem. ve Şahbaz Ahmet. 2013. “Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde küreselleşmenin yoksulluk ve gelir eşitsizliği üzerindeki etkileri.” Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 8(3), 55- 74.
There are 22 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Panel Data Analysis, Growth, Macroeconomics (Other), Public Economics - Taxation and Revenue
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Eylül Kabakçı Günay 0000-0001-5547-4316

Meltem Ince Yenilmez 0000-0002-4689-3196

Publication Date April 22, 2024
Submission Date August 6, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 13 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Kabakçı Günay, E., & Ince Yenilmez, M. (2024). Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators that May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019). MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13(2), 490-498. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1338483
AMA Kabakçı Günay E, Ince Yenilmez M. Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators that May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019). MJSS. April 2024;13(2):490-498. doi:10.33206/mjss.1338483
Chicago Kabakçı Günay, Eylül, and Meltem Ince Yenilmez. “Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators That May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019)”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 13, no. 2 (April 2024): 490-98. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1338483.
EndNote Kabakçı Günay E, Ince Yenilmez M (April 1, 2024) Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators that May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019). MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 13 2 490–498.
IEEE E. Kabakçı Günay and M. Ince Yenilmez, “Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators that May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019)”, MJSS, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 490–498, 2024, doi: 10.33206/mjss.1338483.
ISNAD Kabakçı Günay, Eylül - Ince Yenilmez, Meltem. “Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators That May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019)”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 13/2 (April 2024), 490-498. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1338483.
JAMA Kabakçı Günay E, Ince Yenilmez M. Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators that May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019). MJSS. 2024;13:490–498.
MLA Kabakçı Günay, Eylül and Meltem Ince Yenilmez. “Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators That May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019)”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 13, no. 2, 2024, pp. 490-8, doi:10.33206/mjss.1338483.
Vancouver Kabakçı Günay E, Ince Yenilmez M. Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators that May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019). MJSS. 2024;13(2):490-8.
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