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COVID – 19 SALGINININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: GİRDİ – ÇIKTI ANALİZİ

Year 2021, Volume: 2021 Issue: 2, 1 - 24, 31.12.2021

Abstract

Turizm sektörü, ekonomiye gelir sağlaması, yüksek istihdam olanakları, ülkelerin döviz gelirini arttırması açısından tüm dünyada olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de önemli bir sektördür. Covid-19 salgını döneminde dünyada ve Türkiye’de turizm gelirlerinde dikkate değer düşüşler yaşanmıştır. Bu durum sektörlerin bağınlaşma yapısı nedeniyle yalnızca turizm sektörünün üretimini değil, turizm ile bağlantılı diğer sektörlerin de üretimlerini etkilemiştir. Bu makalede turizm sektörünün bağınlaşma yapısı ve ülke ekonomisi için önemi TÜİK tarafından yayınlanan en güncel girdi – çıktı tablosu olan 2012 girdi – çıktı tablosu yardımıyla ortaya konmuştur. Ayrıca pandemi sürecinde turizm sektörünün nihai talep kayıpları değerlendirilmiş, bunun ekonomiye maliyeti ortaya konmuştur. Turizm sektörü, ekonomideki toplam çıktının % 4,2’sini üretirken elde edilen bulgulara göre GSYH’ya katkısı %7,1 oranında gerçekleşmektedir. Yalnızca turizm sektöründe yaşanan nihai talep daralmasından kaynaklı GSYH düşüşü 2020 yılı için % 4,3 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Turizm sektörünün, 2021 yılında kötümser senaryoya göre GSYH’da %1,6 düşüşü, iyimser senaryoya göre ise yalnızca binde 0,3 oranında bir artışı tetikleyeceği çalışmada ulaşılan diğer önemli bulgulardır.

References

  • Acar, Y. (2020). Yeni Koronavirüs (Covid-19) Salgını ve Turizm Faaliyetlerine Etkisi. Güncel Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(1), 7-21.
  • Arbulu, I., Razumova, M., Rey- Maquieira, J. ve Sastre, F. (2021). Measuring Risks and Vulnerability of Tourism to The Covid-19 Crisis in The Context of Extreme Uncertainty: The Case of the Balearic Islands, Tourism Management Perspectives, 1-16, 39.
  • Bäumen, H. S., Többen, J., Lenzen, M., (2015). Labour forced impacts and production losses due to the 2013 flood in Germany. Journal of Hydrology, 527, 142-150.
  • Banerjee, O., Cicowiez, M., Gachot, S. (2015). A quantitative framework for assessing public investment in tourism - An application to Haiti. Tourism Management, 51, 157–173.
  • Carvalho, V., Nirei, M., Saito, Y., Tahbaz-Salehi, A. (2016). Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake". Cambridge Working Paper Economics, 1670.
  • Çağatay, S. (2020). COVID-19 Pandemisinden Kaynaklanan Dış ve İç Ekonomik Gelişmelerin Türkiye Üzerindeki Olumsuz Etkilerinin Tahmini: Bu Etkilerin Giderilmesi İçin Alternatif Politika Paketlerinin Önerilmesi, Tübitak Projesi, Proje No:120K548.
  • Çelgin, A., Gökçü, M., Gül, S. ve Kazdal, A.(2021). Turizm Büyüme ve İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkileri. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Yayınları, Sayı: 2021-2
  • Gök, B. (2012). Vergi Politikası Değişikliklerinin Ekonomik Etkisi: Genel Denge Analizi. Ege Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi.
  • Haimes, Y. Y., Horowitz, B. M., Lambert, J. H., Santos, J., Crowther, K., Lian, C. (2005). Inoperability input-output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors. II: case studies. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 11(2), 80–92.
  • Havrlant, D., Darandary, A., & Muhsen, A. (2021). Early estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP: a case study of Saudi Arabia. Applied Economics, 53(12), 1317-1325. doi:10.1080/00036846.2020.1828809
  • Kapiki, S. (Tania) (2012). The Impact of Economic Crisis on Tourism and Hospitality: Results from a Study in Greece, Central European Review of Economics and Finance, 2(1), pp. 19-30.
  • Koks, E. E. ve Thissen, M. (2016). A Multiregional Impact Assessment Model for disaster analysis. Economic Systems Research, 28(4), 429-449.
  • Kongoley, P., S. (2015). The Impact of Ebola on the Tourism and Hospitality Industry in Sierra Leone, International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, Volume 5, Issue 12, 542-550.
  • Kunz, M., Mühr, B., Kunz-Plapp, T., Daniell, J., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., Vannieuwenhuyse, M., Comes, T., Elmer, F., Schröter, K., Fohringer, J., Münzberg, T., Lucas, C., ve Zschau, J. (2013). Investigation of superstorm Sandy 2012 in a multi-disciplinary approach. National Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13(10), 625-679.
  • MacKenzie, C. A., Santos, J. R., Barker, K. (2012). Measuring changes in international production from a disruption: case study of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. International Journal of Production Economics, 138(2), 293–302.
  • Maphanga, P. M. ve Henama, U. S. (2019). The Tourism Impact of Ebola in Africa: Lessons on Crisis Management, African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 8 (3), 1-13.
  • Mariolis, T., Rodousakis, N. ve Soklis, G. (2020). The COVID-19 Multiplier Effects of Tourism on The Greek Economy, Tourism Economics, 1-8. doi:10.1177/1354816620946547
  • Miller, R. E., & Blair, P. D. (2009). Input–Output Analysis Foundations and Extensions. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Min, J. C. H. (2005). The effect of the SARS Illness on Tourism in Taiwan:An Empirical Study, International Journal of Management, 22(3), 497-506.
  • Mohd Suib, N. A., & Salleh, N. H. M. (2021). An analysis of labour requirements and the impact of Covid-19 on Malaysia’s tourism industry. International Journal of Management Studies, 28(2), 49-72.
  • Okuyama, Y. (2004). Modeling spatial economic impacts of an earthquake: input-output approaches. Disaster Prevention and Management, 13(4), 297–306.
  • Okuyama, Y. (2014). Disaster and economic structural change: case study on the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Economic Systems Research, 26(1), 98–117.
  • Okuyama, Y. ve Santos, J. R. (2014). Disaster impact and input–output analysis. Economic Systems Research, 26(1), 1-12.
  • Oleksii L., Yana U., Tetyana P., Aleksy K., Tetyana V., Nataliya D., Jan P. ve Viktoria B. (2020). “The Link Between Economic Growth and Tourism: Covid-19 Impact” Proceedings of the 36th International Business Information Management Association (IBIMA), ISBN: 978-0-9998551- 5-7, 4-5 November 2020, Granada, Spain
  • Pham, T. D., Dwyer, L., Su, J. ve Ngo, T. (2021). COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy, Annals of Tourism Research, 88.
  • Richardson, H. W., Park, J., Moore II, J. E., Pan, Q. (2014). National Economic Impact Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters. Massachusetts: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Ritchie, J. R. B., Molinar, C. M. A. ve Frechtling, D. C. (2010). Impacts of the World Recession and Economic Crisis on Tourism: North America, Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 5-15.
  • Santos, J. R., Haimes, Y. Y. (2004). Modeling the demand reduction Input-Output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures. Risk Analysis, 24(6), 1437–1451
  • Santos, J. R., May, L., Haimar, A. E. (2013). Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors. Risk Analysis, 33(9), 1620–1635.
  • Sayan, S. ve Alkan, A. (2020). Covid-19 Salgınına Karşı Kapanmanın Türkiye Ekonomisine Maliyetinin Yenilikçi Bir Arz Yönlü Girdi-Çıktı Yaklaşımıyla Kestirimi, Working Paper, WP202004.
  • Song, H., Lin, S. (2010). Impacts of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Tourism in Asia, Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 16-30.
  • Taymaz E. (2020). Covid-19 Tedbirlerinin Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkisi ve Çözüm Önerileri, https://sarkac.org/2020/04/covid19-tedbirlerinin-turkiye-ekonomisine etkisi ve çözüm önerileri, Erişim Tarihi:07/08/2021.
  • Wu, J., Li, N., Hallegatte, S., Shi, P., Hu, A., Liu, X. (2012). Regional indirect economic impact evaluation of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. Environmental Earth Sciences, 65(1), 161–172.
  • Yu, K. D. S., Tan, R. R., Santos, J. R. (2013). “Impact estimation of flooding in Manila: An inoperability input-output approach”. IEEE Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium (SIEDS), IEEE, 47–51.

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON TURKISH TOURISM SECTOR: AN INPUT – OUTPUT ANALYSIS

Year 2021, Volume: 2021 Issue: 2, 1 - 24, 31.12.2021

Abstract

The tourism sector is an important sector of the economy in Turkey, as it is in the whole World, since it provides income to the economy, high employment opportunities and it highly contributes to the foreign exchange revenue of the countries. During the Covid-19 pandemic, there has been remarkable reduction in tourism revenues in all around the world and in Turkey. This situation has affected not only the production of the tourism sector, but also the production of other sectors related to tourism due to the interindustry transactions of the sectors. In this article, the linkage structure of the tourism sector and its importance for the country's economy are revealed employing the 2012 input-output table, which is the most up-to-date input-output table published by TURKSTAT. In addition, the final demand decrease of the tourism sector during the pandemic process has been evaluated, and the cost of this to the economy has been revealed. While the tourism sector produces 4.2% of the total output in the economy, the findings show that its contribution to GDP is 7.1%. The GDP decrease due to the final demand contraction in the tourism sector has been calculated as 4.3% for 2020. The other important findings of the study are that the tourism sector will cause a 1.6% decrease in GDP according to the pessimistic scenario and an increase of only 0.3% according to the optimistic scenario in 2021.

References

  • Acar, Y. (2020). Yeni Koronavirüs (Covid-19) Salgını ve Turizm Faaliyetlerine Etkisi. Güncel Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(1), 7-21.
  • Arbulu, I., Razumova, M., Rey- Maquieira, J. ve Sastre, F. (2021). Measuring Risks and Vulnerability of Tourism to The Covid-19 Crisis in The Context of Extreme Uncertainty: The Case of the Balearic Islands, Tourism Management Perspectives, 1-16, 39.
  • Bäumen, H. S., Többen, J., Lenzen, M., (2015). Labour forced impacts and production losses due to the 2013 flood in Germany. Journal of Hydrology, 527, 142-150.
  • Banerjee, O., Cicowiez, M., Gachot, S. (2015). A quantitative framework for assessing public investment in tourism - An application to Haiti. Tourism Management, 51, 157–173.
  • Carvalho, V., Nirei, M., Saito, Y., Tahbaz-Salehi, A. (2016). Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake". Cambridge Working Paper Economics, 1670.
  • Çağatay, S. (2020). COVID-19 Pandemisinden Kaynaklanan Dış ve İç Ekonomik Gelişmelerin Türkiye Üzerindeki Olumsuz Etkilerinin Tahmini: Bu Etkilerin Giderilmesi İçin Alternatif Politika Paketlerinin Önerilmesi, Tübitak Projesi, Proje No:120K548.
  • Çelgin, A., Gökçü, M., Gül, S. ve Kazdal, A.(2021). Turizm Büyüme ve İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkileri. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Yayınları, Sayı: 2021-2
  • Gök, B. (2012). Vergi Politikası Değişikliklerinin Ekonomik Etkisi: Genel Denge Analizi. Ege Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi.
  • Haimes, Y. Y., Horowitz, B. M., Lambert, J. H., Santos, J., Crowther, K., Lian, C. (2005). Inoperability input-output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors. II: case studies. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 11(2), 80–92.
  • Havrlant, D., Darandary, A., & Muhsen, A. (2021). Early estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP: a case study of Saudi Arabia. Applied Economics, 53(12), 1317-1325. doi:10.1080/00036846.2020.1828809
  • Kapiki, S. (Tania) (2012). The Impact of Economic Crisis on Tourism and Hospitality: Results from a Study in Greece, Central European Review of Economics and Finance, 2(1), pp. 19-30.
  • Koks, E. E. ve Thissen, M. (2016). A Multiregional Impact Assessment Model for disaster analysis. Economic Systems Research, 28(4), 429-449.
  • Kongoley, P., S. (2015). The Impact of Ebola on the Tourism and Hospitality Industry in Sierra Leone, International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, Volume 5, Issue 12, 542-550.
  • Kunz, M., Mühr, B., Kunz-Plapp, T., Daniell, J., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., Vannieuwenhuyse, M., Comes, T., Elmer, F., Schröter, K., Fohringer, J., Münzberg, T., Lucas, C., ve Zschau, J. (2013). Investigation of superstorm Sandy 2012 in a multi-disciplinary approach. National Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13(10), 625-679.
  • MacKenzie, C. A., Santos, J. R., Barker, K. (2012). Measuring changes in international production from a disruption: case study of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. International Journal of Production Economics, 138(2), 293–302.
  • Maphanga, P. M. ve Henama, U. S. (2019). The Tourism Impact of Ebola in Africa: Lessons on Crisis Management, African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 8 (3), 1-13.
  • Mariolis, T., Rodousakis, N. ve Soklis, G. (2020). The COVID-19 Multiplier Effects of Tourism on The Greek Economy, Tourism Economics, 1-8. doi:10.1177/1354816620946547
  • Miller, R. E., & Blair, P. D. (2009). Input–Output Analysis Foundations and Extensions. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Min, J. C. H. (2005). The effect of the SARS Illness on Tourism in Taiwan:An Empirical Study, International Journal of Management, 22(3), 497-506.
  • Mohd Suib, N. A., & Salleh, N. H. M. (2021). An analysis of labour requirements and the impact of Covid-19 on Malaysia’s tourism industry. International Journal of Management Studies, 28(2), 49-72.
  • Okuyama, Y. (2004). Modeling spatial economic impacts of an earthquake: input-output approaches. Disaster Prevention and Management, 13(4), 297–306.
  • Okuyama, Y. (2014). Disaster and economic structural change: case study on the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Economic Systems Research, 26(1), 98–117.
  • Okuyama, Y. ve Santos, J. R. (2014). Disaster impact and input–output analysis. Economic Systems Research, 26(1), 1-12.
  • Oleksii L., Yana U., Tetyana P., Aleksy K., Tetyana V., Nataliya D., Jan P. ve Viktoria B. (2020). “The Link Between Economic Growth and Tourism: Covid-19 Impact” Proceedings of the 36th International Business Information Management Association (IBIMA), ISBN: 978-0-9998551- 5-7, 4-5 November 2020, Granada, Spain
  • Pham, T. D., Dwyer, L., Su, J. ve Ngo, T. (2021). COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy, Annals of Tourism Research, 88.
  • Richardson, H. W., Park, J., Moore II, J. E., Pan, Q. (2014). National Economic Impact Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters. Massachusetts: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Ritchie, J. R. B., Molinar, C. M. A. ve Frechtling, D. C. (2010). Impacts of the World Recession and Economic Crisis on Tourism: North America, Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 5-15.
  • Santos, J. R., Haimes, Y. Y. (2004). Modeling the demand reduction Input-Output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures. Risk Analysis, 24(6), 1437–1451
  • Santos, J. R., May, L., Haimar, A. E. (2013). Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors. Risk Analysis, 33(9), 1620–1635.
  • Sayan, S. ve Alkan, A. (2020). Covid-19 Salgınına Karşı Kapanmanın Türkiye Ekonomisine Maliyetinin Yenilikçi Bir Arz Yönlü Girdi-Çıktı Yaklaşımıyla Kestirimi, Working Paper, WP202004.
  • Song, H., Lin, S. (2010). Impacts of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Tourism in Asia, Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 16-30.
  • Taymaz E. (2020). Covid-19 Tedbirlerinin Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkisi ve Çözüm Önerileri, https://sarkac.org/2020/04/covid19-tedbirlerinin-turkiye-ekonomisine etkisi ve çözüm önerileri, Erişim Tarihi:07/08/2021.
  • Wu, J., Li, N., Hallegatte, S., Shi, P., Hu, A., Liu, X. (2012). Regional indirect economic impact evaluation of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. Environmental Earth Sciences, 65(1), 161–172.
  • Yu, K. D. S., Tan, R. R., Santos, J. R. (2013). “Impact estimation of flooding in Manila: An inoperability input-output approach”. IEEE Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium (SIEDS), IEEE, 47–51.
There are 34 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section 2021:2 Makaleler
Authors

Utku Akseki 0000-0002-8426-1296

Barış Gök 0000-0002-0131-9625

Early Pub Date December 31, 2021
Publication Date December 31, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 2021 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Akseki, U., & Gök, B. (2021). COVID – 19 SALGINININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: GİRDİ – ÇIKTI ANALİZİ. Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri, 2021(2), 1-24.
AMA Akseki U, Gök B. COVID – 19 SALGINININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: GİRDİ – ÇIKTI ANALİZİ. Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri. December 2021;2021(2):1-24.
Chicago Akseki, Utku, and Barış Gök. “COVID – 19 SALGINININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: GİRDİ – ÇIKTI ANALİZİ”. Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri 2021, no. 2 (December 2021): 1-24.
EndNote Akseki U, Gök B (December 1, 2021) COVID – 19 SALGINININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: GİRDİ – ÇIKTI ANALİZİ. Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri 2021 2 1–24.
IEEE U. Akseki and B. Gök, “COVID – 19 SALGINININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: GİRDİ – ÇIKTI ANALİZİ”, Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri, vol. 2021, no. 2, pp. 1–24, 2021.
ISNAD Akseki, Utku - Gök, Barış. “COVID – 19 SALGINININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: GİRDİ – ÇIKTI ANALİZİ”. Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri 2021/2 (December 2021), 1-24.
JAMA Akseki U, Gök B. COVID – 19 SALGINININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: GİRDİ – ÇIKTI ANALİZİ. Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri. 2021;2021:1–24.
MLA Akseki, Utku and Barış Gök. “COVID – 19 SALGINININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: GİRDİ – ÇIKTI ANALİZİ”. Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri, vol. 2021, no. 2, 2021, pp. 1-24.
Vancouver Akseki U, Gök B. COVID – 19 SALGINININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: GİRDİ – ÇIKTI ANALİZİ. Sosyal Bilimler Metinleri. 2021;2021(2):1-24.