Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Reel Çıktı (Reel GSYİH) ve İşsizlik Oranı İlişkisi: Euro Bölgesi İçin Okun Yasası Analizi

Year 2019, Volume: 27 Issue: 40, 197 - 210, 30.04.2019
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.12

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Euro bölgesi için ekonomik büyüme ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişi Okun Yasası doğrultusunda 2000-2012 yılları için yıllık panel veri analizi ile test edilecektir. Bu amaçla işsizlik histerisi panel hata düzeltme ve panel bütünleşme ve çeşitli panel birim kök testleri yardımıyla testleri kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın bulguları, Okun Yasasının geçerli olduğunu önermektedir. Bununla birlikte, eş bütünleşme katsayısı, Okun’un ABD ve diğer ülkeler için yapılan diğer çalışmalar için hesaplanan katsayısından düşüktür. ABD dünyadaki en güçlü ekonomiye sahip olduğu için analize dâhil edilmiştir. Ayrıca, büyüme ve işsizlik gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha değişken olduğundan, gelişmiş ülkelerle karşılaştırmak amacıyla analize dâhil edilmiştir.

References

  • Altunöz, U. (2015), “Reel Büyüme ve İşsizlik Bağlamında Türkiye İçin Okun Yasası”, Kamu-İş İş Hukuku ve İktisat Dergisi, 1(14), 47-67.
  • Bankole, A.S. & B.O. Fatai (2013), “Empirical Test of Okun’s Law in Nigeria”, International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories, 3(3), 227-231.
  • Barışık, S. & E.İ. Çevik & N. Kırcı-Çevik (2010), “Türkiye’de Okun Yasası, Asimetri İlişkisi ve İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme: Markov-Switching Yaklaşımı”, Maliye Dergisi, 159, 88102.
  • Breitung, J. (2001), “The local power of some unit root tests for panel data”, in: B.H. Baltagi & T.B. Fomby & R.C. Hill (eds.), Non-stationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels (Advances in Econometrics), Vol. 15, United Kingdom: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 161-177.
  • Christopoulos, K.D. (2004), “The relationship between output and unemployment: Evidence from Greek regions”, Papers in Regional Science, 83, 611-620.
  • Demirgil, H. (2010), Okun Yasasının Türkiye için Geçerliliğine dair Ampirik bir Çalışma”, Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(2), 139-151.
  • Doğru, B. (2013), “The link between unemployment rate and real output in Eurozone: A panel error correction approach”, 9 th International Strategic Management Conference, 99, 94-103.
  • EUROSTAT (online), Unemployment Statistics, <http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics- explained/index.php/Unemployment_statistics>, 12.3.2018.
  • Holmes M.J. & B. Silverstone (2006), “Okun’s Law, Asymmetries and Jobless Recoveries in United States: A Markov-Switching Approach”, Economics Letters, 92(2), 293-299.
  • Im, K.S. & M.H. Pesaran & Y. Shin (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, (revise version of 1997’s work), Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
  • Irfan, L. et al. (2010), “Test of Okun’s Law in some Asian Countries: Cointegration Approach”, European Journal of Scientific Research, 40(1), 73-80.
  • Kao, C. (1999), “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44.
  • Larsson, R. & L. Johan & L. Mickael (2001), “Likelihood-Based Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels”, Econometrics Journal, 4, 109-142.
  • Laurence, B. & L. Daniel & L. Prakash (2012), “Okun’s Law: Fit at 50?”, Economics Working Paper Archive 606, The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics.
  • Levin, A. & C.F. Lin & C.S.J. Chu (2002), “Unit Root Test in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Propertiesî”, Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
  • Luciano, G. (2005), “Tests for cointegration in panels with regime shifts”, Econometrics 0505007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Malley, J. & H. Molana (2008), “Output, Unemployment and Okun’s Law: Some Evidence from G7”, Economics Letters, 101, 113-115.
  • Mc Coskey, S.K. & K. Chihwa (1998), “A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration in Panel Data”, Econometric Reviews, 17(1), 57-84.
  • Muratoğlu, Y. (2011), “Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişki ve Türkiye’de Okun Yasasının Sınanması”, Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Hitit Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Okun, A.M. (1962), “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance”, Cowles Foundation Paper 190, 1-7.
  • Pedroni, P. (1999), “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653-670.
  • Pedroni, P. (2001), “Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels”, Advances in Econometrics, 93-130.
  • Pierdzioch, C. & J-C Rulke & G. Stadtmann (2009), “Do professional economists’ forecasts reflect Okun’s law? Some evidence for the G7 countries”, Applied Economics, 43(11), 13651373.
  • Villaverde, J. & A. Maza (2009), “The robustness of Okun’s law in Spain, 1980-2004 Regional evidence”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(2), 289-297.
  • Westerlund, J. & E. David (2005), “Panel Cointegration Tests with Deterministic Trends and Structural Breaks”, Lund University Working Papers, No. 42.
  • Zagler, M. (2003), “A Vector Error Correction Model of Economic Growth and Unemployment in Major European Countries and An Analysis of Okun’s Law”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 3(3), 93-118.
  • Zonzilos, N.G. (2000), “The Phillips curve of the Greek economy and the time varying NAIRU”, Bank of Greece Economic Bulletin, Vol. 15.

The Relationship between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone

Year 2019, Volume: 27 Issue: 40, 197 - 210, 30.04.2019
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.12

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in the euro area (eurozone) is investigated in the light of Okun’s Law by using annual panel data set covering the period 2000-2012. Besides panel error correction and panel integration methods are used to test the link between unemployment and growth rate, unemployment hysteresis was examined by using several non-stationary panel unit root techniques for in all countries included to the study. Findings of this study propose that the Okun’s Law is valid. However, the cointegration coefficient is lower than the Okun’s coefficient calculated for the United States and other studies which was done for developed countries. The US is included in the analysis as it has the strongest economy in the world. In addition, since growth and unemployment are more volatile in developing countries, they are included in the analysis in order to compare with developed countries.

References

  • Altunöz, U. (2015), “Reel Büyüme ve İşsizlik Bağlamında Türkiye İçin Okun Yasası”, Kamu-İş İş Hukuku ve İktisat Dergisi, 1(14), 47-67.
  • Bankole, A.S. & B.O. Fatai (2013), “Empirical Test of Okun’s Law in Nigeria”, International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories, 3(3), 227-231.
  • Barışık, S. & E.İ. Çevik & N. Kırcı-Çevik (2010), “Türkiye’de Okun Yasası, Asimetri İlişkisi ve İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme: Markov-Switching Yaklaşımı”, Maliye Dergisi, 159, 88102.
  • Breitung, J. (2001), “The local power of some unit root tests for panel data”, in: B.H. Baltagi & T.B. Fomby & R.C. Hill (eds.), Non-stationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels (Advances in Econometrics), Vol. 15, United Kingdom: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 161-177.
  • Christopoulos, K.D. (2004), “The relationship between output and unemployment: Evidence from Greek regions”, Papers in Regional Science, 83, 611-620.
  • Demirgil, H. (2010), Okun Yasasının Türkiye için Geçerliliğine dair Ampirik bir Çalışma”, Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(2), 139-151.
  • Doğru, B. (2013), “The link between unemployment rate and real output in Eurozone: A panel error correction approach”, 9 th International Strategic Management Conference, 99, 94-103.
  • EUROSTAT (online), Unemployment Statistics, <http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics- explained/index.php/Unemployment_statistics>, 12.3.2018.
  • Holmes M.J. & B. Silverstone (2006), “Okun’s Law, Asymmetries and Jobless Recoveries in United States: A Markov-Switching Approach”, Economics Letters, 92(2), 293-299.
  • Im, K.S. & M.H. Pesaran & Y. Shin (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, (revise version of 1997’s work), Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
  • Irfan, L. et al. (2010), “Test of Okun’s Law in some Asian Countries: Cointegration Approach”, European Journal of Scientific Research, 40(1), 73-80.
  • Kao, C. (1999), “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44.
  • Larsson, R. & L. Johan & L. Mickael (2001), “Likelihood-Based Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels”, Econometrics Journal, 4, 109-142.
  • Laurence, B. & L. Daniel & L. Prakash (2012), “Okun’s Law: Fit at 50?”, Economics Working Paper Archive 606, The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics.
  • Levin, A. & C.F. Lin & C.S.J. Chu (2002), “Unit Root Test in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Propertiesî”, Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
  • Luciano, G. (2005), “Tests for cointegration in panels with regime shifts”, Econometrics 0505007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Malley, J. & H. Molana (2008), “Output, Unemployment and Okun’s Law: Some Evidence from G7”, Economics Letters, 101, 113-115.
  • Mc Coskey, S.K. & K. Chihwa (1998), “A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration in Panel Data”, Econometric Reviews, 17(1), 57-84.
  • Muratoğlu, Y. (2011), “Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişki ve Türkiye’de Okun Yasasının Sınanması”, Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Hitit Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Okun, A.M. (1962), “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance”, Cowles Foundation Paper 190, 1-7.
  • Pedroni, P. (1999), “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653-670.
  • Pedroni, P. (2001), “Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels”, Advances in Econometrics, 93-130.
  • Pierdzioch, C. & J-C Rulke & G. Stadtmann (2009), “Do professional economists’ forecasts reflect Okun’s law? Some evidence for the G7 countries”, Applied Economics, 43(11), 13651373.
  • Villaverde, J. & A. Maza (2009), “The robustness of Okun’s law in Spain, 1980-2004 Regional evidence”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(2), 289-297.
  • Westerlund, J. & E. David (2005), “Panel Cointegration Tests with Deterministic Trends and Structural Breaks”, Lund University Working Papers, No. 42.
  • Zagler, M. (2003), “A Vector Error Correction Model of Economic Growth and Unemployment in Major European Countries and An Analysis of Okun’s Law”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 3(3), 93-118.
  • Zonzilos, N.G. (2000), “The Phillips curve of the Greek economy and the time varying NAIRU”, Bank of Greece Economic Bulletin, Vol. 15.
There are 27 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Utku Altunöz 0000-0002-0232-3108

Publication Date April 30, 2019
Submission Date October 7, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 27 Issue: 40

Cite

APA Altunöz, U. (2019). The Relationship between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone. Sosyoekonomi, 27(40), 197-210. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.12
AMA Altunöz U. The Relationship between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone. Sosyoekonomi. April 2019;27(40):197-210. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.12
Chicago Altunöz, Utku. “The Relationship Between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone”. Sosyoekonomi 27, no. 40 (April 2019): 197-210. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.12.
EndNote Altunöz U (April 1, 2019) The Relationship between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone. Sosyoekonomi 27 40 197–210.
IEEE U. Altunöz, “The Relationship between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 27, no. 40, pp. 197–210, 2019, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.12.
ISNAD Altunöz, Utku. “The Relationship Between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone”. Sosyoekonomi 27/40 (April 2019), 197-210. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.12.
JAMA Altunöz U. The Relationship between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone. Sosyoekonomi. 2019;27:197–210.
MLA Altunöz, Utku. “The Relationship Between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 27, no. 40, 2019, pp. 197-10, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.02.12.
Vancouver Altunöz U. The Relationship between Real Output (Real GDP) and Unemployment Rate: An Analysis of Okun’s Law for Eurozone. Sosyoekonomi. 2019;27(40):197-210.