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Kamu Harcamaları ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği

Year 2024, Volume: 32 Issue: 60, 317 - 338, 28.04.2024

Emre Bulut Dilek Çil

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.02.15

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı 12 geçiş ekonomisi için Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) panel asimetrik nedensellik analiziyle kamu harcamaları ile vergi gelirleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin araştırılmasıdır. Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) asimetrik nedensellik analizi bulgularına göre kamu harcamaları ve vergi gelirleri arasında asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Buna göre, pozitif bileşenler arasında çift yönlü, negatif bileşenler arasında ise kamu harcamalarından vergi gelirlerine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bulguların önemi, geçiş ekonomileri için pozitif ve negatif şoklara ilişkin sonuçların farklılık arz etmesi ve pozitif şoklara ilişkin sonucun mali senkronizasyon, negatif şoklara ilişkin sonucun ise harcama-vergi hipotezini desteklediğinin belirlenmiş olmasıdır.

Keywords

Kamu Harcamaları Vergi Gelirleri Panel Asimetrik Nedensellik Geçiş Ekonomileri

References

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  • Anderson, W. et al. (1986), “Government Spending and Taxation: What Causes What?”, Southern Economic Journal, 52(3), 630-639.
  • Aregbeyen, O. & B. Insah (2013), “A Dynamic Analysis of The Link Between Public Expenditure and Public Revenue in Nigeria and Ghana”, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(4), 18-26.
  • Athanasenas, A. et al. (2014), “Government Spending and Revenues in The Greek Economy: Evidence from Nonlinear Cointegration”, Empirica, 41(2), 365-376.
  • Ay, H.M. & E. Talaşlı (2008), “Ülkelerin Ekonomik Gelişmişlik Seviyeleri ve Vergi Yapıları Arasındaki İlişki”, Maliye Dergisi, 154, 135-155.
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  • Baffes, J. & A. Shah (1994), “Causality and Comovement Between Taxes and Expenditures: Historical Evidence from Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico”, Journal of Development Economics, 44(2), 311-331.
  • Baghestani, H. & R. Mcnown (1994), “Do Revenues or Expenditures Respond to Budgetary Disequilibria?”, Southern Economic Journal, 61(2), 311-322.
  • Bağcı-Aydoğdu, A. & E. Sever (2022), “Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Kaynaklarına Göre Vergi Türleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Sosyoekonomi, 30(51), 261-282.
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  • Famulska, T. et al. (2020), “The Relationship Between Tax Revenue and Public Social Expenditure in The EU Member States”, European Research Studies Journal, 23(4), 136-1156.
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Asymmetric Causality Relationship Between Public Expenditures and Tax Revenues: Transition Economies Case

Year 2024, Volume: 32 Issue: 60, 317 - 338, 28.04.2024

Emre Bulut Dilek Çil

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.02.15

Abstract

The study aims to investigate the causality relationship between public expenditures and tax revenues with Dumitrescu & Hurlin's (2012) panel asymmetric causality analysis for 12 transition economies. Dumitrescu & Hurlin's (2012) asymmetric causality analysis findings determined an asymmetric causality relationship between public expenditures and tax revenues. Accordingly, it was determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between the positive components and a unidirectional causality relationship between the negative components from public expenditures to tax revenues. The significance of the findings is that the results for positive and negative shocks differ for transition economies, and it has been determined that the result for positive shocks supports fiscal synchronisation. In contrast, the result for negative shocks supports the expenditure-tax hypothesis.

Keywords

Public Expenditures Tax Revenues Panel Asymmetric Causality Transition Economies

References

  • Abual-Foul, B. & H. Baghestani (2004), “The Causal Relation Between Government Revenue and Spending: Evidence from Egypt and Jordan”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 28(2), 260-269.
  • Akbulut, H. & A.B. Yereli (2016), “Kamu Gelirleri ve Kamu Harcamaları Nedensellik İlişkisi: 2006-2015 Dönemi için Türkiye Örneği”, Sosyoekonomi, 24(27), 103-120.
  • Anderson, W. et al. (1986), “Government Spending and Taxation: What Causes What?”, Southern Economic Journal, 52(3), 630-639.
  • Aregbeyen, O. & B. Insah (2013), “A Dynamic Analysis of The Link Between Public Expenditure and Public Revenue in Nigeria and Ghana”, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(4), 18-26.
  • Athanasenas, A. et al. (2014), “Government Spending and Revenues in The Greek Economy: Evidence from Nonlinear Cointegration”, Empirica, 41(2), 365-376.
  • Ay, H.M. & E. Talaşlı (2008), “Ülkelerin Ekonomik Gelişmişlik Seviyeleri ve Vergi Yapıları Arasındaki İlişki”, Maliye Dergisi, 154, 135-155.
  • Aysu, A. & D. Bakırtaş (2018), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 51, 1-19.
  • Baffes, J. & A. Shah (1994), “Causality and Comovement Between Taxes and Expenditures: Historical Evidence from Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico”, Journal of Development Economics, 44(2), 311-331.
  • Baghestani, H. & R. Mcnown (1994), “Do Revenues or Expenditures Respond to Budgetary Disequilibria?”, Southern Economic Journal, 61(2), 311-322.
  • Bağcı-Aydoğdu, A. & E. Sever (2022), “Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Kaynaklarına Göre Vergi Türleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Sosyoekonomi, 30(51), 261-282.
  • Barro, R.J. (1974), “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095-1117.
  • Blackley, P.R. (1986), “Causality Between Revenues and Expenditures and The Size of The Federal Budget”, Public Finance Quarterly, 14(2), 139-156.
  • Bohn, H. (1991), “Budget Balance Through Revenue or Spending Adjustments?: Some Historical Evidence for The United States”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 27(3), 333-359.
  • Bolat, S. & M. Belke (2015), “Fiscal Assessment in The Tax-Spending Nexus: A Tale of Central and Eastern European Countries”, International Conference on Theoretical and Practical Aspects of Public Finance, Prag.
  • Bozoklu, Ş. & V. Yılancı (2013), “Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomiler İçin Analiz”, DEÜ İİBF Dergisi, 28(2), 161-187.
  • Buchanan, J.M. & R.E. Wagner (1977), Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes, New York: Academic Press.
  • Chang, T. & G. Chiang (2009), “Revisiting the Government Revenue-Expenditure Nexus: Evidence From 15 OECD Countries Based on The Panel Data Approach”, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance A Uver), 59(2), 165-172.
  • Chang, T. et al. (2002), “Tax-And-Spend, Spend-And-Tax, or Fiscal Synchronization: New Evidence for Ten Countries”, Applied Economics, 34(12), 1553-1561.
  • Cheng, B.S. (1999), “Causality Between Taxes and Expenditures: Evidence from Latin American Countries”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 23(2), 184-192.
  • Chowdhury, A.R. (1988), “Expenditures and Receipts in State and Local Government Finances: Comment”, Public Choice, 59(3), 277-285.
  • Çetintaş, H. & D. Baigonushova (2016), “Devlet Harcamaları ve Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişkinin Test Edilmesi: Kırgızistan Örneği”, International Conference on Eurasian Economies, Kaposvár.
  • Darrat, A.F. (1998), “Tax and Spend or Spend and Tax? An Inquiry into The Turkish Budgetary Process”, Southern Economic Journal, 64(4), 940-956.
  • Darrat, A.F. (2002), “Budget Balance Through Spending Cuts or Tax Adjustments?”, Contemporary Economic Policy, 20(3), 221-233.
  • Dökmen, G. (2012), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Kamu Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Nedensellik Analizi”, DEÜ İİBF Dergisi, 27(2), 115-143.
  • Dumitrescu, E.I. & C. Hurlin (2012), “Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels”, Economic Modelling, 29, 1450-1460.
  • Ekinci, A.A. (2020), “Causality Between Excise Tax Revenue and Government Spending in OECD Countries”, HÜ İİBF Dergisi, 38(4), 721-741.
  • Ewing, B. & J. Payne (1998), “Government Revenue-Expenditure Nexus: Evidence from Latin America”, Journal of Economic Development, 23(2), 57-69.
  • Ewing, B.T. et al. (2006), “Government Expenditures and Revenues: Evidence from Asymmetric Modeling”, Southern Economic Journal, 73(1), 190-200.
  • Famulska, T. et al. (2020), “The Relationship Between Tax Revenue and Public Social Expenditure in The EU Member States”, European Research Studies Journal, 23(4), 136-1156.
  • Fasano, U. & Q. Wang (2002), “Testing the Relationship Between Government Spending and Revenue: Evidence from GCC Countries”, IMF Working Papers, WP/02/201, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
  • Friedman, M. (1978), “The Limitations of Tax Limitation”, Quadrant, 22(8), 22-24.
  • Garcia, M.J. (2012), “The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: A Panel Data Analysis of Spain's Regions (Running Title: Tax-Expenditure, Expenditure-Tax or Fiscal Synchronization)”, International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 1(1), 24-38.
  • Garcia, S. & P.Y. Hénin (1999), “Balancing Budget Through Tax Increases or Expenditure Cuts: Is It Neutral?”, Economic Modelling, 16(4), 591-612.
  • Gürdal, T. et al. (2020), “The Relationship Between Tax Revenue, Government Expenditure, And Economic Growth in G7 Countries: New Evidence from Time and Frequency Domain Approaches”, Economic Change and Restructuring, 54(2), 305-337.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2011), “Asymmetric Panel Causality Tests with an Application to the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Performance in Scandinavia”, MPRA Working Papers, No. 55527, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Munich.
  • Ho, Y. & C. Huang (2009), “Tax-Spend, Spend-Tax, or Fiscal Synchronization: A Panel Analysis of The Chinese Provincial Real Data”, Journal of Economics and Management, 5(2), 257-272.
  • Hondroyiannis, G. & E. Papapetrou (1996), “An Examination of The Causal Relationship Between Government Spending and Revenue: A Cointegration Analysis”, Public Choice, 89(3), 363-374.
  • Hoover, K.D. & S.M. Sheffrin (1992), “Causation, Spending, And Taxes: Sand in The Sandbox or Tax Collector for The Welfare State?”, The American Economic Review, 82(1), 225-248.
  • Jones, J.D. & D. Joulfaian (1991), “Federal Government Expenditures and Revenues in The Early Years of The American Republic: Evidence from 1792 to 1860”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 13(1), 133-155.
  • Joulfaian, D. & R. Mookerjee (1991), “Dynamics of Government Revenues and Expenditures in Industrial Economies”, Applied Economics, 23(12), 1839-1844.
  • Kamacı, A. & O. Kurt (2021), “Kamu Harcamaları ile Vergi Gelirleri İlişkisi: Pandemi Öncesi ve Sonrası için bir Değerlendirme”, Journal of Life Economics, 8(4), 455-462.
  • Karakas, M. & T. Turan (2019), “The Government Spending-Revenue Nexus in Cee Countries: Some Evidence for Asymmetric Effects”, Prague Economic Papers, 28(6), 633-647.
  • Koçak, S. (2021), “Is Exchange Rate Volatility An Important Determinant of Tax Revenues? Evidence From Turkey”, Romanian Economic Journal, 24(81), 33-49.
  • Koçak, S. vd. (2022), “Enflasyon, Enflasyon Oynaklığı ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Dinamik İlişkiler: Türkiye Örneği”, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (36), 209-222.
  • Kollias, C. & S. Makrydakis (2000), “Tax and Spend or Spend and Tax? Empirical Evidence from Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland”, Applied Economics, 32(5), 533-546.
  • Kollias, C. & S.M. Paleologou (2006), “Fiscal Policy in The European Union: Tax and Spend, Spend and Tax, Fiscal Synchronization or Institutional Separation?”, Journal of Economic Studies, 33(2), 108-120.
  • Konukcu-Önal, D. & A.N. Tosun (2008), “Government Revenue-Expenditure Nexus: Evidence from Several Transitional Economies”, Economic Annals, 53, 145-56.
  • Koren, S. & A. Stiassny (1998), “Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax? An International Study”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 20(2), 163-191.
  • Manage, N. & M.L. Marlow (1986), “The Causal Relation Between Federal Expenditures and Receipts”, Southern Economic Journal, 52(3), 617-629.
  • Marlow, M.L. & N. Manage (1987), “Expenditures and Receipts: Testing for Causality in State and Local Government Finances”, Public Choice, 53(3), 243-255.
  • Mehrara, M. et al. (2011), “Government Revenue and Government Expenditure Nexus in Asian Countries: Panel Cointegration and Causality”, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(7), 199-207.
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There are 80 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Emre Bulut 0000-0002-9453-9749

Dilek Çil 0000-0002-8242-1970

Early Pub Date April 28, 2024
Publication Date April 28, 2024
Submission Date December 1, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 32 Issue: 60

Cite

APA Bulut, E., & Çil, D. (2024). Kamu Harcamaları ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği. Sosyoekonomi, 32(60), 317-338. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.02.15
AMA Bulut E, Çil D. Kamu Harcamaları ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği. Sosyoekonomi. April 2024;32(60):317-338. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.02.15
Chicago Bulut, Emre, and Dilek Çil. “Kamu Harcamaları Ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği”. Sosyoekonomi 32, no. 60 (April 2024): 317-38. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.02.15.
EndNote Bulut E, Çil D (April 1, 2024) Kamu Harcamaları ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği. Sosyoekonomi 32 60 317–338.
IEEE E. Bulut and D. Çil, “Kamu Harcamaları ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 32, no. 60, pp. 317–338, 2024, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.02.15.
ISNAD Bulut, Emre - Çil, Dilek. “Kamu Harcamaları Ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği”. Sosyoekonomi 32/60 (April 2024), 317-338. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.02.15.
JAMA Bulut E, Çil D. Kamu Harcamaları ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği. Sosyoekonomi. 2024;32:317–338.
MLA Bulut, Emre and Dilek Çil. “Kamu Harcamaları Ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 32, no. 60, 2024, pp. 317-38, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.02.15.
Vancouver Bulut E, Çil D. Kamu Harcamaları ve Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği. Sosyoekonomi. 2024;32(60):317-38.
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