Araştırma Makalesi
Yıl 2022,
Cilt: 24 Sayı: 3, 1291 - 1326, 28.12.2022
Öz
Implementing fiscal policies to ensure domestic and foreign balances together is of vital importance to sustain financial and economic stability. Therefore, investigating the relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit is one of the issues debated by popolicymakersnd economists. In this context, the existence of the win deficit hypothesis in Turkey is researched through recursive algorithms used to revaluate the temporal stability of Granger causality for the periods of January 1998-December 2021. The findings from time-varying Granger causality analysis reveal the existence of a bidirectional causality relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit. This result means the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis in Turkey. Also, the temporal changes in the so-called casualty relationships are observed significantly. During the electoral and crisis periods there is the existence of the twin deficit hypothesis wthe hileaccountnt acount targeting policy is implemented during the periods of 2002-2008 and 2015-2021. In the COVID-19 period, a bidirectional asymmetric transmission mechanism between budget deficit andcurrentt account deficit is worked can be stated.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Budget and current account deficits Twin deficit hypothesis Granger causality Time-variation Turkey
Kaynakça
- Abbas, M. A., Amran, A., Rehman, N. A., Ali, A. (2021). Twin Deficit and Macroeconomic Indicators in Emerging Economies: A Comparative Study of Iran and Turkey. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(5), 617-626.
- Ağır, H. & Zabun, A. (2015). Türkiye için Ricardocu Denkliğin ekonometrik testi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 10(3), 7-27
- Ahmad, A. H., Aworinde, O. B., & Martin, C. (2015). Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit hypothesis in African countries. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 12(2), 80–91.
- Akbostanc, E., & Tunc, G. I. (2015). Effects of budget defict on production, inflation and trade balance of Iran‐based on the sychronous equations' model. Bulleting of Georgina National Accademy of Science, 1(9), 246–255.
- Akosah, N. K., (2013). Dynamics of Ghana's twin‐deficits: Causality, transmission channels and potential threat. Johannesburg: Bank of Ghana.
- Aksu, H. & Başar, S. (2009). Türkiye için ikiz açıklar hipotezinin tahmini: Bir sınır testi yaklaşımı. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 64(4), 1-14.
- Aworinde, O. B. (2013). Budget deficits and economic performance. Bath: University of Bath.
- Ay, A., Karaçor, Z., Mucuk, M. & Erdoğan, S.(2004). Bütçe açığı cari işlemler açığı arasındaki ilişki Türkiye örneği (1992-2003). Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12, 75-82.
- Ayhan, F. & Mangır, F. (2019). OECD ülkelerinde ikiz açık hipotezinin geçerliliği: Panel veri analizi. Social Sciences, 14(5), 2011-2026.
- Azgün, S. (2012). Twin deficit hypothesis: Evidence from the Turkish economy. ERC Working Papers in Economics, 2(13), 189–196.
- Bagnai, A. (2006). Structural Breaks and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. International Economics and Economic Policy, 3, 137-155
- Banday, U. J., & Aneja, R. (2016). How budget deficit and current account deficit are interrelated in Indian economy. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 23(1).
- Barro, R. (1974). Are government bonds net wealth? Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1085–1117.
- Barro, R. J. (1989). The ricardian approach to budget deficits. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), 37–54.
- Baxter, M. (1995). International trade and business cycle, Handbook of international. 1801–1864
- Bayat, T., Taşar, İ., Kayhan, S. & Aççı, Y. (2017). Do government expenditures and trade deficits affect each other in the same way? Evidence from Turkey. Ekonomski Vjesnik, 30(1), 169.
- Bilman, M. E., & Karaoglan, ˘ S. (2020). Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes? Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(1), 205–215.
- Bose, S., & Jha, S. (2011). India’s twin deficits: Some fresh empirical evidence. ICRA Bulletin, Money and Finance, 1, 83–104.
- Cardosoa, M., & Domenecha, R. (2010). On Ricardian equivalence and twin deficit divergence: The spanish experience in the 2009 crisis. Valencia: University of Valencia.
- Celik, S., & Deniz, P. (2009). An empirical investigation of twin deficits hypothesis for six emerging countries. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(7), 52–68.
- Clarida, R., Gali, J., 1994. Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 41
- Clemente, J., Montanes, A., & Reyes, M. (1998). Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean. Economics Letters, 59, 175–182.
- Çebi, C. & Çulha, A. A. (2014). The effects of government spending shocks on the real exchange rate and trade balance in Turkey. Applied Economics, 46(26), 3151-3162
- Daly, V., & Siddiki, J. U. (2009). The Twin Deficits in OECD Countries: Cointegration Analysis with Regime Shifts. Applied Economics Letters, 16(11), 1155-1164.
- Egwaikhide, F., Ayodele, S. O., Oyeranti, O., & Tchokote, J. (2002). Causality between budget deficit and the current account balance in African countries. West African Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 5(12), 10–41.
- El‐Namrouty, K. A., & Saidam, A. M. (2015). The effects of budget deficit on current account: Case study (Palestinian territories 1996–2012). International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 3(1), 57–67
- Erdinç, Z. (2008). İkiz açıklar hipotezinin Türkiye’de 1950-2005 yılları arasında eşbütünleşme analizi ve Granger nedensellik testi ile incelenmesi. Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 8(1), 209-222.
- Feldstein, M., & Horioka, C. (1980). Domestic saving and international capital flows. The Economic Journal, 90(358), 314–329
- Fleming, M. J. (1962). ‘Domestic Financial Policies Under Fixed and Under Floating Exchange Rates. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 9(3), 369–380. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866091
- Frenkel, J.A., Razin, R., 1996. Fiscal Policies and Growth in the World Economy, 3rd ed. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
- Froot, K., Rogoff, K., 1991. The EMS, the EMU, and the transition to a common currency. NBER Macroeconomics Annual (6).
- Ganchev, G. T., Stavrova, E., & Tsenkov, V. (2012). Testing the twin deficit hypothesis: The case of Central and Eastern European countries. International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(7), 1–21.
- Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.
- Güriş, S. & Yılgör, M. (2008). OECD ülkelerinde bütçe açıkları ve dış ticaret açıkları arasındaki ilişki: Panel veri ile nedensellik analizi. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 25(2), 773-783.
- Hakro, A. N. (2009). Twin deficits causality link-evidence from Pakistan. Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 24, 54–70. https://doi.org/10.12691/jfe-2-5-2
- Holmes, M. J. (2011). Threshold Cointegration and the Short-Run Dynamics of Twin Deficit Behaviour. Research in Economics, 65, 271-277.
- İnançli, S., & Torusdağ, M. (2021). Cari Açık-Bütçe Açığı ve Faiz Oranı İlişkisi Bağlamında İkiz Açık ve Üçüz Açık Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: 1990-2019 Dönemi Türkiye Örneği. Sosyoekonomi, 29(50), 299-315.
- Kaya, H. & Ayse, S.A., 2006. Are the twin or triple deficits hypotheses applicable to post‐communist countries? BOFIT Working Papers
- Kayhan, S., Adıgüzel, U. & Sökmen, F. Ş. (2016). Kamu harcamaları–dış ticaret açığı ilişkisi: Birbirlerini aynı yönde mi etkiler? Türkiye örneği. In ICPESS (International Congress on Politic, Economic and Social Studies), October, No. 1
- Keynes, J. M., 1936. The general theory of employment, interest, and money. 1st ed. s.l.: Prometheus Books
- Kim, S., & Roubini, N. (2008). Twin deficit or Twin divergence? Financial policy, current account and real exchange rate in the US. Journal of international economics, 74(2), 362–383
- Konat, G. (2021). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Dış Ticaret İlişkisi: Fourier Nedensellik Yaklaşımı. International Journal of Management Economics & Business, 17(3), 900-917.
- Lee, J. W., & Brahmasrene, T. (2018). An exploration of dynamical relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Korea. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 5(3), 7–17.
- Lee, J. W., & Zhao, T. F. (2014). Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates: Evidence from Chinese stock markets. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 1(1), 5-14.
- Majumder, M. K., Raghavan, M., & Vespignani, J. (2022). The impact of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance and the role of real interest rate. Empirical Economics, 1-28.
- Mallick, L., Behera, S. R., & Murthy, R. R. (2021). Does the twin deficit hypothesis exist in India? Empirical evidence from an asymmetric non-linear cointegration approach. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 24, e00219.
- Marinherio, C. F. (2007). Ricardian equivalence, twin deficits, and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in Egypt. Portugal: University of Coimbra
- Merza, E., Alawin, M., & Bushayreh, A. (2012). The relationship between current account and government budget balance: The case of Kuwait. International journal of humanities and social science, 168–177
- Mundell, R. A. (1963). ‘Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates. The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29(4), 475–485. https://doi.org/10.2307/139336
- Ncanywa, T., & Letsoalo, T. E. (2019). Which among twin deficits hypothesis, twin divergence, and Ricardian's equivalence hold in a developing country?. Journal of Public Affairs, 19(2), e1904.
- Njironge, E. K., Kosimbei, G., & Korir, J. (2014). Testing the twin deficit hypothesis for Kenya. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 3(5), 160–169
- Özpençe, A. İ. & Ergen, E. (2017). Kamu harcamaları ve dış ticaret açıkları ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(4), 134-145.
- Parikh, A., & Rao, B. (2006). Do fiscal deficits influence current accounts? A case study of India. Review of Development Economics, 10(3), 492–505.
- Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1361–1401.
- Perron, P., & Vogelsang, T. J. (1992). Nonstationarity and level shifts with an application to purchasing power parity. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 301–320.
- Rafiq, S. (2010). Fiscal Stance, the Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate:Some Empirical Estimates from A Time-Varying Framework. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 21, 276–290.
- Rehman, N. A., Shamshir, M., & Shakir, K. (2020). Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan. IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), 16(1), 16–1.
- Sakyi, D. & Opoku, E. E. O., 2016. The twin deficits hypothesis in developing countries: Empirical evidence for Ghana. IGC Working Paper.
- Salvatore, D. (2006). Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(6), 701–712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2006.06.003
- Summers, L. H. (1988). Tax policy and international competitiveness in international aspects of fiscal policies. National Bureua of Economic Resaerch, 2(2), 349–386
- Suresh, K., & Gautam, V. (2015). Relevance of twin deficit hypotheses: An econometric analysis with reference to India. Theoretical Economics Letters, 6(5), 304–311
- Tosun, M. U., Lyidonan, P. V., & Telatar, E. (2014). The twin deficit in selected central and eastern European economies: Bound testing approach with causality analysis. Romanian journal of economic forecasting, 20(2) 141–160
- Trachanas, E., & Katrakilidis, C. (2013). The Dynamic Linkages of Fiscal and Current Account Deficits: New Evidence from Five Highly Indebted European Countries Accounting for Regime Shifts and Asymmetries. Economic Modelling, 31, 502-510.
- Tunçsiper, B. & Sürekçi, D.(2011). Türkiye’de ikiz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliğinin zaman serisi analizi. Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 11(3), 103-120.
- Turan, T. & Karakaş, M. (2018). Asymmetries in twin deficit hypothesis: Evidence from CEE countries. Ekonomicky Casopis, 66(6), 580-597.
- Yanik, Y. (2006). Twin deficit hypothesis: An empirical investigation. Middle East: Technical University
Yıl 2022,
Cilt: 24 Sayı: 3, 1291 - 1326, 28.12.2022
Öz
Finansal ve ekonomik istikrarın sürdürülebilirliği açısından iç ve dış dengenin birlikte sağlandığı maliye politikalarının uygulanması son derece önem arz etmektedir. Bu nedenle, cari işlemler ile bütçe açıkları arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi politika yapıcılar, araştırmacılar ve ekonomistler arasında tartışılan önemli konulardan biri haline gelmiştir. Bu kapsamda, çalışmada Türkiye için Ocak 1998 – Aralık 2021 döneminde ikiz açık hipotezi, Granger nedenselliğin geçici istikrarını yeniden değerlendirmek amacıyla kullanılan yinelemeli algoritmalar kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Zamanla değişen Granger nedensellik analizden elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de ele alınan dönemde cari işlemler dengesi ve bütçe açığı arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuç, Türkiye’de ikiz açık hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ifade etmektedir. Aynı zamanda, nedensellik ilişkisinde anlamlı geçici değişimlerin olduğu gözlenmektedir. Seçim ve kriz dönemlerinde ikiz açık hipotezinin varlığı mevcut iken, 2002-2008 ve 2015-2021 dönemlerinde cari işlemler hedeflemesi politikası uygulanmaktadır. COVID-19 pandemisi döneminde ise, cari işlemler dengesi ve bütçe açığı arasında çift yönlü asimetrik aktarım mekanizmasının işlediği ifade edilebilir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Cari işlemler ve bütçe açıkları İkiz açık hipotezi Granger nedensellik Zaman değişimi Türkiye
Kaynakça
- Abbas, M. A., Amran, A., Rehman, N. A., Ali, A. (2021). Twin Deficit and Macroeconomic Indicators in Emerging Economies: A Comparative Study of Iran and Turkey. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(5), 617-626.
- Ağır, H. & Zabun, A. (2015). Türkiye için Ricardocu Denkliğin ekonometrik testi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 10(3), 7-27
- Ahmad, A. H., Aworinde, O. B., & Martin, C. (2015). Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit hypothesis in African countries. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 12(2), 80–91.
- Akbostanc, E., & Tunc, G. I. (2015). Effects of budget defict on production, inflation and trade balance of Iran‐based on the sychronous equations' model. Bulleting of Georgina National Accademy of Science, 1(9), 246–255.
- Akosah, N. K., (2013). Dynamics of Ghana's twin‐deficits: Causality, transmission channels and potential threat. Johannesburg: Bank of Ghana.
- Aksu, H. & Başar, S. (2009). Türkiye için ikiz açıklar hipotezinin tahmini: Bir sınır testi yaklaşımı. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 64(4), 1-14.
- Aworinde, O. B. (2013). Budget deficits and economic performance. Bath: University of Bath.
- Ay, A., Karaçor, Z., Mucuk, M. & Erdoğan, S.(2004). Bütçe açığı cari işlemler açığı arasındaki ilişki Türkiye örneği (1992-2003). Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12, 75-82.
- Ayhan, F. & Mangır, F. (2019). OECD ülkelerinde ikiz açık hipotezinin geçerliliği: Panel veri analizi. Social Sciences, 14(5), 2011-2026.
- Azgün, S. (2012). Twin deficit hypothesis: Evidence from the Turkish economy. ERC Working Papers in Economics, 2(13), 189–196.
- Bagnai, A. (2006). Structural Breaks and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. International Economics and Economic Policy, 3, 137-155
- Banday, U. J., & Aneja, R. (2016). How budget deficit and current account deficit are interrelated in Indian economy. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 23(1).
- Barro, R. (1974). Are government bonds net wealth? Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1085–1117.
- Barro, R. J. (1989). The ricardian approach to budget deficits. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), 37–54.
- Baxter, M. (1995). International trade and business cycle, Handbook of international. 1801–1864
- Bayat, T., Taşar, İ., Kayhan, S. & Aççı, Y. (2017). Do government expenditures and trade deficits affect each other in the same way? Evidence from Turkey. Ekonomski Vjesnik, 30(1), 169.
- Bilman, M. E., & Karaoglan, ˘ S. (2020). Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes? Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(1), 205–215.
- Bose, S., & Jha, S. (2011). India’s twin deficits: Some fresh empirical evidence. ICRA Bulletin, Money and Finance, 1, 83–104.
- Cardosoa, M., & Domenecha, R. (2010). On Ricardian equivalence and twin deficit divergence: The spanish experience in the 2009 crisis. Valencia: University of Valencia.
- Celik, S., & Deniz, P. (2009). An empirical investigation of twin deficits hypothesis for six emerging countries. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(7), 52–68.
- Clarida, R., Gali, J., 1994. Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 41
- Clemente, J., Montanes, A., & Reyes, M. (1998). Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean. Economics Letters, 59, 175–182.
- Çebi, C. & Çulha, A. A. (2014). The effects of government spending shocks on the real exchange rate and trade balance in Turkey. Applied Economics, 46(26), 3151-3162
- Daly, V., & Siddiki, J. U. (2009). The Twin Deficits in OECD Countries: Cointegration Analysis with Regime Shifts. Applied Economics Letters, 16(11), 1155-1164.
- Egwaikhide, F., Ayodele, S. O., Oyeranti, O., & Tchokote, J. (2002). Causality between budget deficit and the current account balance in African countries. West African Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 5(12), 10–41.
- El‐Namrouty, K. A., & Saidam, A. M. (2015). The effects of budget deficit on current account: Case study (Palestinian territories 1996–2012). International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 3(1), 57–67
- Erdinç, Z. (2008). İkiz açıklar hipotezinin Türkiye’de 1950-2005 yılları arasında eşbütünleşme analizi ve Granger nedensellik testi ile incelenmesi. Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 8(1), 209-222.
- Feldstein, M., & Horioka, C. (1980). Domestic saving and international capital flows. The Economic Journal, 90(358), 314–329
- Fleming, M. J. (1962). ‘Domestic Financial Policies Under Fixed and Under Floating Exchange Rates. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 9(3), 369–380. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866091
- Frenkel, J.A., Razin, R., 1996. Fiscal Policies and Growth in the World Economy, 3rd ed. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
- Froot, K., Rogoff, K., 1991. The EMS, the EMU, and the transition to a common currency. NBER Macroeconomics Annual (6).
- Ganchev, G. T., Stavrova, E., & Tsenkov, V. (2012). Testing the twin deficit hypothesis: The case of Central and Eastern European countries. International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(7), 1–21.
- Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.
- Güriş, S. & Yılgör, M. (2008). OECD ülkelerinde bütçe açıkları ve dış ticaret açıkları arasındaki ilişki: Panel veri ile nedensellik analizi. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 25(2), 773-783.
- Hakro, A. N. (2009). Twin deficits causality link-evidence from Pakistan. Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 24, 54–70. https://doi.org/10.12691/jfe-2-5-2
- Holmes, M. J. (2011). Threshold Cointegration and the Short-Run Dynamics of Twin Deficit Behaviour. Research in Economics, 65, 271-277.
- İnançli, S., & Torusdağ, M. (2021). Cari Açık-Bütçe Açığı ve Faiz Oranı İlişkisi Bağlamında İkiz Açık ve Üçüz Açık Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: 1990-2019 Dönemi Türkiye Örneği. Sosyoekonomi, 29(50), 299-315.
- Kaya, H. & Ayse, S.A., 2006. Are the twin or triple deficits hypotheses applicable to post‐communist countries? BOFIT Working Papers
- Kayhan, S., Adıgüzel, U. & Sökmen, F. Ş. (2016). Kamu harcamaları–dış ticaret açığı ilişkisi: Birbirlerini aynı yönde mi etkiler? Türkiye örneği. In ICPESS (International Congress on Politic, Economic and Social Studies), October, No. 1
- Keynes, J. M., 1936. The general theory of employment, interest, and money. 1st ed. s.l.: Prometheus Books
- Kim, S., & Roubini, N. (2008). Twin deficit or Twin divergence? Financial policy, current account and real exchange rate in the US. Journal of international economics, 74(2), 362–383
- Konat, G. (2021). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Dış Ticaret İlişkisi: Fourier Nedensellik Yaklaşımı. International Journal of Management Economics & Business, 17(3), 900-917.
- Lee, J. W., & Brahmasrene, T. (2018). An exploration of dynamical relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Korea. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 5(3), 7–17.
- Lee, J. W., & Zhao, T. F. (2014). Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates: Evidence from Chinese stock markets. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 1(1), 5-14.
- Majumder, M. K., Raghavan, M., & Vespignani, J. (2022). The impact of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance and the role of real interest rate. Empirical Economics, 1-28.
- Mallick, L., Behera, S. R., & Murthy, R. R. (2021). Does the twin deficit hypothesis exist in India? Empirical evidence from an asymmetric non-linear cointegration approach. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 24, e00219.
- Marinherio, C. F. (2007). Ricardian equivalence, twin deficits, and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in Egypt. Portugal: University of Coimbra
- Merza, E., Alawin, M., & Bushayreh, A. (2012). The relationship between current account and government budget balance: The case of Kuwait. International journal of humanities and social science, 168–177
- Mundell, R. A. (1963). ‘Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates. The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29(4), 475–485. https://doi.org/10.2307/139336
- Ncanywa, T., & Letsoalo, T. E. (2019). Which among twin deficits hypothesis, twin divergence, and Ricardian's equivalence hold in a developing country?. Journal of Public Affairs, 19(2), e1904.
- Njironge, E. K., Kosimbei, G., & Korir, J. (2014). Testing the twin deficit hypothesis for Kenya. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 3(5), 160–169
- Özpençe, A. İ. & Ergen, E. (2017). Kamu harcamaları ve dış ticaret açıkları ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(4), 134-145.
- Parikh, A., & Rao, B. (2006). Do fiscal deficits influence current accounts? A case study of India. Review of Development Economics, 10(3), 492–505.
- Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1361–1401.
- Perron, P., & Vogelsang, T. J. (1992). Nonstationarity and level shifts with an application to purchasing power parity. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 301–320.
- Rafiq, S. (2010). Fiscal Stance, the Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate:Some Empirical Estimates from A Time-Varying Framework. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 21, 276–290.
- Rehman, N. A., Shamshir, M., & Shakir, K. (2020). Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan. IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), 16(1), 16–1.
- Sakyi, D. & Opoku, E. E. O., 2016. The twin deficits hypothesis in developing countries: Empirical evidence for Ghana. IGC Working Paper.
- Salvatore, D. (2006). Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(6), 701–712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2006.06.003
- Summers, L. H. (1988). Tax policy and international competitiveness in international aspects of fiscal policies. National Bureua of Economic Resaerch, 2(2), 349–386
- Suresh, K., & Gautam, V. (2015). Relevance of twin deficit hypotheses: An econometric analysis with reference to India. Theoretical Economics Letters, 6(5), 304–311
- Tosun, M. U., Lyidonan, P. V., & Telatar, E. (2014). The twin deficit in selected central and eastern European economies: Bound testing approach with causality analysis. Romanian journal of economic forecasting, 20(2) 141–160
- Trachanas, E., & Katrakilidis, C. (2013). The Dynamic Linkages of Fiscal and Current Account Deficits: New Evidence from Five Highly Indebted European Countries Accounting for Regime Shifts and Asymmetries. Economic Modelling, 31, 502-510.
- Tunçsiper, B. & Sürekçi, D.(2011). Türkiye’de ikiz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliğinin zaman serisi analizi. Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 11(3), 103-120.
- Turan, T. & Karakaş, M. (2018). Asymmetries in twin deficit hypothesis: Evidence from CEE countries. Ekonomicky Casopis, 66(6), 580-597.
- Yanik, Y. (2006). Twin deficit hypothesis: An empirical investigation. Middle East: Technical University
Toplam 66 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Ana Bölüm |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 28 Aralık 2022 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2022 Cilt: 24 Sayı: 3 |
