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Yatırım ve İthalat Uzun Dönemde İlişkilendirilebilir Mi?: Türkiye’den Kanıt

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 19, 36 - 44, 30.06.2021

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı 1980-2019 periyodu için Türkiye’de ARDL tahmin tekniği kullanılarak yatırımlar ve ithalat arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisini analiz etmektir. Türkiye’nin gelişmekte olan bir ülke olmasının yanında ekonomik büyümesinin hammadde ve ara malı ithalatına bağlı olması nedeniyle, bu çalışmanın temel hipotezi; Türkiye’de uzun dönemde yatırımlardaki bir artışın ithalatta bir artışa yol açacağının iddia edilmesidir. ARDL sınır aracılığıyla uygulanan eş-bütünleşme test sonuçları; yatırım ve ithalat serilerinin eş-bütünleşik olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak; Türkiye’de uzun dönem katsayı tahminleri ise yatırım ve ithalat arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir ilişki olduğu sonucunu göstermekte olup yatırım seviyesindeki %1’lik bir artışın ithalat seviyesinde %0.1673 kadarlık bir artışa neden olduğunu göstermektedir. Aynı zamanda tanı test sonuçları incelendiğinde tahmin edilen modellerin oto korelasyon, değişen varyans, normalite ve model tanımlama açısından herhangi bir soruna sahip olmadığını sonucunu ifade etmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Abbes, S. M., Mostéfa, B., Seghir, G., & Zakarya, G. Y. (2015). Causal Interactions between FDI, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Co-integration. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 276-290.
  • Adams, S. (2009). Foreign Direct İnvestment, Domestic Investment, and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(6), 939-949.
  • Alfaro, L. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: Does the Sector Matter. Harvard Business School, 2003, 1-31.
  • Anwer, M. S., & Sampath, R. K. (1999). Investment and Economic Growth. In 1999 Annual Meeting, July 11-14, 1999, Fargo, ND (No. 35713). Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  • Anwar, S., & Sun, S. (2018). Foreign Direct Investment and Export Quality Upgrading in China's Manufacturing Sector. International Review of Economics & Finance, 54, 289-298.
  • Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Public Investment and Productivity Growth in the Group of Seven. Economic Perspectives, 13(5), 17-25.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2007). Causality between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies. Economics Letters, 94(3), 389-395.
  • Bayraktar, N. (2019). Effectiveness of Public Investment on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Eurasian Economic Review, 9(4), 421-457.
  • Blomstrom, M., Lipsey, R. E., & Zejan, M. (1993). Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic growth? (No. w4436). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Boly, A., Coniglio, N. D., Prota, F., & Seric, A. (2014). Diaspora Investments and Firm Export Performance in Selected Sub-Saharan African countries. World Development, 59, 422-433.
  • Cavallari, L. (2010). Exports and Foreign Direct Investments in an Endogenous-Entry Model with Real and Nominal Uncertainty. Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(1), 300-313.
  • Chen, J., & Dong, B. (2012). A Nonparametric Estimation on the Effects of Import and Export Trade to Economic Growth in China. Procedia Engineering, 29, 952-956.
  • Cullison, W. (1993). Public Investment and Economic Growth. FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, 79(4), 19-33.
  • Çetintaş, H., & Barişik, S. (2009). Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies. Transition Studies Review, 15(4), 636-649.
  • Çulha, O. Y., Eren, O., & Öğünç, F. (2019). Import Demand Function for Turkey. Central Bank Review, 19(1), 9-19.
  • De Long, J. B., & Summers, L. H. (1991). Equipment Investment and Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 445-502.
  • Dulleck, U., & Foster, N. (2008). Imported Equipment, Human Capital and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Economic Analysis and Policy, 38(2), 233-250.
  • Dzhumashev, R., Mishra, V., & Smyth, R. (2016). Exporting, R&D Investment and Firm Survival in the Indian IT Sector. Journal of Asian Economics, 42, 1-19.
  • Erduman, Y., Eren, O., & Gül, S. (2020). Import Content of Turkish Production and Exports: A sectoral Analysis. Central Bank Review, 20(4), 155-168.
  • Ghani, E., & Din, M. U. (2006). The Impact of Public Investment on Economic Growth in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 87-98.
  • Ghosh, S. (2009). Import Demand of Crude Oil and Economic Growth: Evidence from India. Energy Policy, 37(2), 699-702.
  • Hao, Y., Zhu, L., & Ye, M. (2018). The Dynamic Relationship between Energy Consumption, Investment and Economic Growth in China's Rural Area: New Evidence based on Provincial Panel Data. Energy, 154, 374-382.
  • Jun, Z. (2003). Investment, Investment Efficiency, and Economic Growth in China. Journal of Asian Economics, 14(5), 713-734.
  • Kırca, M., Canbay, Ş., & Pirali, K. (2020). Is the Relationship between Oil-gas Prices Index and Economic Growth in Turkey Permanent?. Resources Policy, 69, 101838.
  • Lachler, U., & Aschauer, D. A. (1998). Public Investment and Economic Growth in Mexico (No. 1964). The World Bank.
  • Liu, Q., & Lu, Y. (2015). Firm Investment and Exporting: Evidence from China's Value-added Tax Reform. Journal of International Economics, 97(2), 392-403.
  • Madsen, J. B. (2002). The Causality between Investment and Economic Growth. Economics Letters, 74(2), 157-163.
  • Marwah, K., & Tavakoli, A. (2004). The Effect of Foreign Capital and Imports on Economic Growth: Further evidence from four Asian countries (1970–1998). Journal of Asian Economics, 15(2), 399-413.
  • Masten, I., & Gnip, A. G. (2019). Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment in South-East Europe. Journal of Policy Modeling, 41(6), 1179-1194.
  • Mıhcı, S., & Bolatoğlu, N. (2018). Import Dependency in Turkey: An Input–output Analysis based on the Firm-Level Data. In The Dynamics of Growth in Emerging Economies (pp. 267-280). Routledge.
  • Phetsavong, K., & Ichihashi, M. (2012). The Impact of Public and Private Investment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Asian countries. Hiroshima University.
  • Podrecca, E., & Carmeci, G. (2001). Fixed Investment and Economic Growth: New Results on Causality. Applied Economics, 33(2), 177-182.
  • Ramirez, M. D. (1998). Does Public Investment Enhance Labor Productivity Growth in Chile? A Cointegration Analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(1), 45-65.
  • Ramirez, M. D. (2002). Public Capital Formation and Labor Productivity Growth in Mexico. Atlantic Economic Journal, 30(4), 366-379.
  • Ramirez, M. D., & Nazmi, N. (2003). Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: An Empirical Test. Review of Development Economics, 7(1), 115-126.
  • Romp, W. E., & De Haan, J. (2005). Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey. EIB Papers, 10(1), 41-70.
  • Ramos, F. F. R. (2001). Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from Causality and Cointegration Analysis. Economic Modelling, 18(4), 613-623.
  • Rho, Y., & Rodrigue, J. (2016). Firm‐level Investment and Export Dynamics. International Economic Review, 57(1), 271-304.
  • Qin, D., Cagas, M. A., Quising, P., & He, X. H. (2006). How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(7), 751-774.
  • Schularick, M., & Steger, T. M. (2010). Financial Integration, Investment, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Two Eras of Financial Globalization. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4), 756-768.
  • Senesen, G. G., & Senesen, U. (2001). Reconsidering Import Dependency in Turkey: The Breakdown of Sectoral Demands with Respect to Suppliers. Economic Systems Research, 13(4), 417-428.
  • Senesen, U., & Senesen, G. G. (2003). Import Dependency of Production in Turkey: Structural Change from 1970’s to 1990’s. In Tenth Annual Conference of the Economic Research Forum (ERF) (pp. 16-18).
  • Sharma, C., & Paramati, S. R. (2021). Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Dampen Imports? Commodity-level Evidence from India. Economic Modelling, 94, 139-149.
  • Solarin, S. A., & Shahbaz, M. (2015). Natural Gas Consumption and Economic Growth: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment, Capital Formation and Trade Openness in Malaysia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42, 835-845.
  • Sözen, A. (2009). Future Projection of the Energy Dependency of Turkey Using Artificial Neural Network. Energy Policy, 37(11), 4827-4833.
  • Tekin, R. B. (2012). Economic Growth, Exports and Foreign Direct Investment in Least Developed Countries: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis. Economic Modelling, 29(3), 868-878.
  • Tvaronavičius, V., & Tvaronavičiene, M. (2008). Role of Fixed Investments in Economic Growth of Country: Lithuania in European Context. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 9(1), 57-64.
  • Uğur, A. (2008). Import and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Multivariate VAR Analysis. Journal of Economics and Business, 11(1-2), 54-75.
  • Wen, Y. (2001). Residential Investment and Economic Growth. Annals of Economics and Finance, 2(2), 437-444.
  • Yu, Q. (1998). Capital Investment, International Trade and Economic Growth in China: Evidence in the 1980–1990s. China Economic Review, 9(1), 73-84.
  • Zhang, Q., & Felmingham, B. (2001). The Relationship between Inward Direct Foreign Investment and China's Provincial Export Trade. China Economic Review, 12(1), 82-99.

Are Investments and Imports Associated in the Long-term?: Evidence from Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 19, 36 - 44, 30.06.2021

Öz

In this paper we investigate the long-running association between investments and imports in Turkey using a dataset covering the 1980–2019 period, and employing the ARDL estimation technique. As a developing country, Turkey’s economic growth relies on the import of raw materials and intermediate goods, and so the main hypothesis of this study claims that increases in investments lead to increases in imports in the long term in Turkey. The results of co-integration ARDL bounds tests show the series of imports and investments to be co-integrated, while long-term coefficient estimations reveal a positive and statistically significant relationship between import and investment series, and that a 1% increase in investments leads to a 0.1673% increase in imports in the long term in Turkey. Furthermore, diagnostic tests reveal the estimated model to have problems in terms of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, normality and model specification.

Kaynakça

  • Abbes, S. M., Mostéfa, B., Seghir, G., & Zakarya, G. Y. (2015). Causal Interactions between FDI, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Co-integration. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 276-290.
  • Adams, S. (2009). Foreign Direct İnvestment, Domestic Investment, and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(6), 939-949.
  • Alfaro, L. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: Does the Sector Matter. Harvard Business School, 2003, 1-31.
  • Anwer, M. S., & Sampath, R. K. (1999). Investment and Economic Growth. In 1999 Annual Meeting, July 11-14, 1999, Fargo, ND (No. 35713). Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  • Anwar, S., & Sun, S. (2018). Foreign Direct Investment and Export Quality Upgrading in China's Manufacturing Sector. International Review of Economics & Finance, 54, 289-298.
  • Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Public Investment and Productivity Growth in the Group of Seven. Economic Perspectives, 13(5), 17-25.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2007). Causality between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies. Economics Letters, 94(3), 389-395.
  • Bayraktar, N. (2019). Effectiveness of Public Investment on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Eurasian Economic Review, 9(4), 421-457.
  • Blomstrom, M., Lipsey, R. E., & Zejan, M. (1993). Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic growth? (No. w4436). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Boly, A., Coniglio, N. D., Prota, F., & Seric, A. (2014). Diaspora Investments and Firm Export Performance in Selected Sub-Saharan African countries. World Development, 59, 422-433.
  • Cavallari, L. (2010). Exports and Foreign Direct Investments in an Endogenous-Entry Model with Real and Nominal Uncertainty. Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(1), 300-313.
  • Chen, J., & Dong, B. (2012). A Nonparametric Estimation on the Effects of Import and Export Trade to Economic Growth in China. Procedia Engineering, 29, 952-956.
  • Cullison, W. (1993). Public Investment and Economic Growth. FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, 79(4), 19-33.
  • Çetintaş, H., & Barişik, S. (2009). Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies. Transition Studies Review, 15(4), 636-649.
  • Çulha, O. Y., Eren, O., & Öğünç, F. (2019). Import Demand Function for Turkey. Central Bank Review, 19(1), 9-19.
  • De Long, J. B., & Summers, L. H. (1991). Equipment Investment and Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 445-502.
  • Dulleck, U., & Foster, N. (2008). Imported Equipment, Human Capital and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Economic Analysis and Policy, 38(2), 233-250.
  • Dzhumashev, R., Mishra, V., & Smyth, R. (2016). Exporting, R&D Investment and Firm Survival in the Indian IT Sector. Journal of Asian Economics, 42, 1-19.
  • Erduman, Y., Eren, O., & Gül, S. (2020). Import Content of Turkish Production and Exports: A sectoral Analysis. Central Bank Review, 20(4), 155-168.
  • Ghani, E., & Din, M. U. (2006). The Impact of Public Investment on Economic Growth in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 87-98.
  • Ghosh, S. (2009). Import Demand of Crude Oil and Economic Growth: Evidence from India. Energy Policy, 37(2), 699-702.
  • Hao, Y., Zhu, L., & Ye, M. (2018). The Dynamic Relationship between Energy Consumption, Investment and Economic Growth in China's Rural Area: New Evidence based on Provincial Panel Data. Energy, 154, 374-382.
  • Jun, Z. (2003). Investment, Investment Efficiency, and Economic Growth in China. Journal of Asian Economics, 14(5), 713-734.
  • Kırca, M., Canbay, Ş., & Pirali, K. (2020). Is the Relationship between Oil-gas Prices Index and Economic Growth in Turkey Permanent?. Resources Policy, 69, 101838.
  • Lachler, U., & Aschauer, D. A. (1998). Public Investment and Economic Growth in Mexico (No. 1964). The World Bank.
  • Liu, Q., & Lu, Y. (2015). Firm Investment and Exporting: Evidence from China's Value-added Tax Reform. Journal of International Economics, 97(2), 392-403.
  • Madsen, J. B. (2002). The Causality between Investment and Economic Growth. Economics Letters, 74(2), 157-163.
  • Marwah, K., & Tavakoli, A. (2004). The Effect of Foreign Capital and Imports on Economic Growth: Further evidence from four Asian countries (1970–1998). Journal of Asian Economics, 15(2), 399-413.
  • Masten, I., & Gnip, A. G. (2019). Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment in South-East Europe. Journal of Policy Modeling, 41(6), 1179-1194.
  • Mıhcı, S., & Bolatoğlu, N. (2018). Import Dependency in Turkey: An Input–output Analysis based on the Firm-Level Data. In The Dynamics of Growth in Emerging Economies (pp. 267-280). Routledge.
  • Phetsavong, K., & Ichihashi, M. (2012). The Impact of Public and Private Investment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Asian countries. Hiroshima University.
  • Podrecca, E., & Carmeci, G. (2001). Fixed Investment and Economic Growth: New Results on Causality. Applied Economics, 33(2), 177-182.
  • Ramirez, M. D. (1998). Does Public Investment Enhance Labor Productivity Growth in Chile? A Cointegration Analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(1), 45-65.
  • Ramirez, M. D. (2002). Public Capital Formation and Labor Productivity Growth in Mexico. Atlantic Economic Journal, 30(4), 366-379.
  • Ramirez, M. D., & Nazmi, N. (2003). Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: An Empirical Test. Review of Development Economics, 7(1), 115-126.
  • Romp, W. E., & De Haan, J. (2005). Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey. EIB Papers, 10(1), 41-70.
  • Ramos, F. F. R. (2001). Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from Causality and Cointegration Analysis. Economic Modelling, 18(4), 613-623.
  • Rho, Y., & Rodrigue, J. (2016). Firm‐level Investment and Export Dynamics. International Economic Review, 57(1), 271-304.
  • Qin, D., Cagas, M. A., Quising, P., & He, X. H. (2006). How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(7), 751-774.
  • Schularick, M., & Steger, T. M. (2010). Financial Integration, Investment, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Two Eras of Financial Globalization. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4), 756-768.
  • Senesen, G. G., & Senesen, U. (2001). Reconsidering Import Dependency in Turkey: The Breakdown of Sectoral Demands with Respect to Suppliers. Economic Systems Research, 13(4), 417-428.
  • Senesen, U., & Senesen, G. G. (2003). Import Dependency of Production in Turkey: Structural Change from 1970’s to 1990’s. In Tenth Annual Conference of the Economic Research Forum (ERF) (pp. 16-18).
  • Sharma, C., & Paramati, S. R. (2021). Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Dampen Imports? Commodity-level Evidence from India. Economic Modelling, 94, 139-149.
  • Solarin, S. A., & Shahbaz, M. (2015). Natural Gas Consumption and Economic Growth: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment, Capital Formation and Trade Openness in Malaysia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42, 835-845.
  • Sözen, A. (2009). Future Projection of the Energy Dependency of Turkey Using Artificial Neural Network. Energy Policy, 37(11), 4827-4833.
  • Tekin, R. B. (2012). Economic Growth, Exports and Foreign Direct Investment in Least Developed Countries: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis. Economic Modelling, 29(3), 868-878.
  • Tvaronavičius, V., & Tvaronavičiene, M. (2008). Role of Fixed Investments in Economic Growth of Country: Lithuania in European Context. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 9(1), 57-64.
  • Uğur, A. (2008). Import and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Multivariate VAR Analysis. Journal of Economics and Business, 11(1-2), 54-75.
  • Wen, Y. (2001). Residential Investment and Economic Growth. Annals of Economics and Finance, 2(2), 437-444.
  • Yu, Q. (1998). Capital Investment, International Trade and Economic Growth in China: Evidence in the 1980–1990s. China Economic Review, 9(1), 73-84.
  • Zhang, Q., & Felmingham, B. (2001). The Relationship between Inward Direct Foreign Investment and China's Provincial Export Trade. China Economic Review, 12(1), 82-99.
Toplam 51 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Jülide Yalçınkaya Koyuncu

Mustafa Ünver 0000-0002-0491-3080

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2021
Kabul Tarihi 14 Haziran 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 19

Kaynak Göster

APA Yalçınkaya Koyuncu, J., & Ünver, M. (2021). Are Investments and Imports Associated in the Long-term?: Evidence from Turkey. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(19), 36-44.