Öz
This study examine the short-run and long-run relationship between inflation and urbanization and ruralization rates in Türkiye by using a data set for the years between 1960 and 2022 and estimation method of ARDL. Stationarity test findings disclose that urbanization rate is integrated order one while economic growth, inflation, and ruralization rate are integrated order zero. Co-integration test findings gathered from ARDL bound test hint that there is co-integrating relationship among variables of economic growth, inflation, ruralization rate, and urbanization rate. Considering to long-run coefficient estimations, ruralization rate and economic growth have negative and statistically significant coefficients for the first model. In other words one percent increase in ruralization rate induces to a decrease in consumer price index by 17.168 percent. Also one percent rise in economic growth causes to a drop in consumer price index by 0.995 percent. For the second model, we obtained statistically significant positive coefficient estimation for urbanization rate and negative one for economic growth. More spesifically, if urbanization rate goes up by %1 then consumer price index increases by %19.427 whereas %1 increase in economic growth lessens consumer price index by %0.947.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Urbanization Ruralization Inflation Stationarity Co-integration ARDL Long-run Analysis
Kaynakça
- Arouri, M., Youssef, A. B., Nguyen-Viet, C., & Soucat, A. (2014). Effects of urbanization on economic growth and human capital formation in Africa. Program on the Global Demography of Aging at Harvard Unıversity (PGDA Working Paper No. 119), 1-22. https://cdn1.sph.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/1288/2014/09/PGDA_WP_119.pdf
- Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Fink, G. (2018). Urbanization and the wealth of nations. Program on the Global Demography of Aging, Working Paper Series No. 30, 1-14. https://doi: 10.1126/science.1153057
- Chabbi, H.E. (2010). Agriculture and economic growth in Tunisia. China Agricultural Economic Review 2, 63-78. Chen, M., Zhang, H., Liu, W., & Zhang, W. (2014). The Global Pattern of Urbanization and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Three Decades. PLOS ONE, 8(9), 1-15.
- Değer M. K. ve Emsen Ö.S. (2004), “Türkiye de Kentsel Büyüme ve İhracat İlişkileri: Panel Veri ve Yatay-Kesit Analizleri”, Kentsel Ekonomik Araştırmalar Sempozyumu, Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı ve Pamukkale Üniversitesi Ortak Yayını.
- ES, M., & Ateş, H. (2010). Kent Yönetimi, Kentlileşme ve Göç: Sorunlar ve Çözüm Önerileri. Journal of Social Policy Conferences(48).
- Henderson, V. (2003). The urbanization process and economic growth: The so-what question. Journal of Economic Growth, (8), 47-71. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40215937?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
- Lee, C. I. (2008). Migration and the wage and unemployment gaps between urban and non-urban sectors: A dynamicgeneral equilibrium reinterpretation of the Harris–Todaro equilibrium. Labour Economics, (15), 1416-1434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2008.01.003
- Lewis, B.D. (2014), Urbanization and Economic Growth in Indonesia: Good News, Bad News and (Possible) Local Government Mitigation, Regional Studies, 48 (1), 192-207.
- Lo, D. Y. (ty). Urbanization and Economic Growth: Testing for Causality.
- Khrais, I., & Al-Wadi, M. (2016). Economic growth and unemployment relationship: An empirical study for MENA countries. International Journal of Managerial Studies and Research (IJMSR), 4(12), 19-24. http://dx.doi.org/10.20431/2349-0349.0412003
- Peng, X., Chen, X., & Cheng, Y. (2018). Urbanization and its consequences. Demography, II, 1-15. https://www.eolss.net/sample-chapters/C04/E6-147-18.pdf
- Sarker, S., Khan, A., & Mannan, M. M. (2016). Urban Population and Economic Growth: South Asia Perspective . European Journal of Government and Economics, 1(5), 64-75.
- Singh, R., Swami, N. S., & Prasad, B. C. (2014). Urbanization and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Pacific Island Economies. The University of the South Pacific, Working Paper: School of Economics.
- Sönmez, S., & Artukoğlu, M. (2021). Kırsal Kesimde Tasarruf Eğilimini Etkileyen Faktörler Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 18(2), 189-195.
- Tunca, Z. (2005). Makro İktisat, İstanbul: Filiz Kitabevi.
Öz
This study examine the short-run and long-run relationship between inflation and urbanization and ruralization rates in Turkey by using a data set for the years between 1960 and 2022 and estimation method of ARDL. Stationarity test findings disclose that urbanization rate is integrated order one while economic growth, inflation, and ruralization rate are integrated order zero. Co-integration test findings gathered from ARDL bound test hint that there is co-integrating relationship among variables of economic growth, inflation, ruralization rate, and urbanization rate. Considering to long-run coefficient estimations, ruralization rate and economic growth have negative and statistically significant coefficients for the first model. In other words one percent increase in ruralization rate induces to a decrease in consumer price index by 17.168 percent. Also one percent rise in economic growth causes to a drop in consumer price index by 0.995 percent. For the second model, we obtained statistically significant positive coefficient estimation for urbanization rate and negative one for economic growth. More spesifically, if urbanization rate goes up by %1 then consumer price index increases by %19.427 whereas %1 increase in economic growth lessens consumer price index by %0.947.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Urbanization Ruralization Inflation Stationarity Co-integration ARDL Long-run Analysis
Kaynakça
- Arouri, M., Youssef, A. B., Nguyen-Viet, C., & Soucat, A. (2014). Effects of urbanization on economic growth and human capital formation in Africa. Program on the Global Demography of Aging at Harvard Unıversity (PGDA Working Paper No. 119), 1-22. https://cdn1.sph.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/1288/2014/09/PGDA_WP_119.pdf
- Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Fink, G. (2018). Urbanization and the wealth of nations. Program on the Global Demography of Aging, Working Paper Series No. 30, 1-14. https://doi: 10.1126/science.1153057
- Chabbi, H.E. (2010). Agriculture and economic growth in Tunisia. China Agricultural Economic Review 2, 63-78. Chen, M., Zhang, H., Liu, W., & Zhang, W. (2014). The Global Pattern of Urbanization and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Three Decades. PLOS ONE, 8(9), 1-15.
- Değer M. K. ve Emsen Ö.S. (2004), “Türkiye de Kentsel Büyüme ve İhracat İlişkileri: Panel Veri ve Yatay-Kesit Analizleri”, Kentsel Ekonomik Araştırmalar Sempozyumu, Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı ve Pamukkale Üniversitesi Ortak Yayını.
- ES, M., & Ateş, H. (2010). Kent Yönetimi, Kentlileşme ve Göç: Sorunlar ve Çözüm Önerileri. Journal of Social Policy Conferences(48).
- Henderson, V. (2003). The urbanization process and economic growth: The so-what question. Journal of Economic Growth, (8), 47-71. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40215937?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
- Lee, C. I. (2008). Migration and the wage and unemployment gaps between urban and non-urban sectors: A dynamicgeneral equilibrium reinterpretation of the Harris–Todaro equilibrium. Labour Economics, (15), 1416-1434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2008.01.003
- Lewis, B.D. (2014), Urbanization and Economic Growth in Indonesia: Good News, Bad News and (Possible) Local Government Mitigation, Regional Studies, 48 (1), 192-207.
- Lo, D. Y. (ty). Urbanization and Economic Growth: Testing for Causality.
- Khrais, I., & Al-Wadi, M. (2016). Economic growth and unemployment relationship: An empirical study for MENA countries. International Journal of Managerial Studies and Research (IJMSR), 4(12), 19-24. http://dx.doi.org/10.20431/2349-0349.0412003
- Peng, X., Chen, X., & Cheng, Y. (2018). Urbanization and its consequences. Demography, II, 1-15. https://www.eolss.net/sample-chapters/C04/E6-147-18.pdf
- Sarker, S., Khan, A., & Mannan, M. M. (2016). Urban Population and Economic Growth: South Asia Perspective . European Journal of Government and Economics, 1(5), 64-75.
- Singh, R., Swami, N. S., & Prasad, B. C. (2014). Urbanization and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Pacific Island Economies. The University of the South Pacific, Working Paper: School of Economics.
- Sönmez, S., & Artukoğlu, M. (2021). Kırsal Kesimde Tasarruf Eğilimini Etkileyen Faktörler Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 18(2), 189-195.
- Tunca, Z. (2005). Makro İktisat, İstanbul: Filiz Kitabevi.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Enflasyon, Kalkınma Ekonomisi - Makro |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makaleleri |
| Yazarlar | |
| Erken Görünüm Tarihi | 29 Aralık 2023 |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 29 Aralık 2023 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 23 Aralık 2023 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 26 Aralık 2023 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2023 Sayı: 12 |
