Araştırma Makalesi
Yıl 2021,
Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 49 - 68, 30.06.2021
Öz
Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1980-2017 dönemi için Üst Orta Gelirli ülkelerde ekonomik büyüme ve finansal gelişme arasındaki ilişkiyi Toda-Yamamoto'nun panel (FMOLS, DOLS ve GMM) ve panel Granger-nedensellik testleri kullanarak araştırmaktır. Sonuçlar, özel sektöre verilen yurtiçi kredinin (GSYİH yüzdesi) ve geniş paranın (GSYİH yüzdesi) ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi olduğunu doğruladı. Sonuç olarak finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeyi hızlandırdığı söylenebilir. Ayrıca Ürdün, Fas, Belize, Botsvana, Çin, Guatemala, Paraguay, Peru ve Tayland'da ekonomik büyümeden finansal gelişmeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Cezayir, Mısır, Suudi Arabistan, Dominik Cumhuriyeti, Malezya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye'de finansal gelişmeden büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Buna karşılık Umman, Tunus, Brezilya, Mauritius ve Meksika'da nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Aimer, N. M. M. (2016). Crude Oil Prices and Economic Development in Libya. Energy Economics Letters, 3(3), 30–41.
- Andriesz, E., Asteriou, D., & Pilbeam, K. (2005). The linkage between financial liberalization and economic development: empirical evidence from Poland. Journal of Economic Integration, 383–399.
- Antzoulatos, A. A., Thanopoulos, J., & Tsoumas, C. (2008). Financial System Structure and Change-1986-2005 Evidence from the OECD Countries. Journal of Economic Integration, 977–1001.
- Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51.
- Arestis, P., & Demetriades, P. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: assessing the evidence. The Economic Journal, 107(442), 783–799.
- Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. R., & Lundblad, C. (2001). Emerging equity markets and economic development. Journal of Development Economics, 66(2), 465–504.
- Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), 249–272.
- Çeştepe, H., & Yıldırım, E. (2016). Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(12), 12-26.
- De Gregorio, J., & Guidotti, P. E. (1995). Financial development and economic growth. World Development, 23(3), 433–448.
- Demetriades, P. O., & Hussein, K. A. (1996). Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries. Journal of Development Economics, 51(2), 387–411.
- Demetriades, P. O., & Luintel, K. B. (1996). Financial development, economic growth and banking sector controls: evidence from India. The Economic Journal, 106(435), 359–374.
- Dolado, J. J., & Lütkepohl, H. (1996). Making Wald tests work for cointegrated VAR systems. Econometric Reviews, 15(4), 369–386.
- Durusu-Ciftci, D., Ispir, M. S., & Yetkiner, H. (2017). Financial development and economic growth: Some theory and more evidence. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(2), 290-306.
- El Menyari, Y. (2019). Financial Development, Foreign Banks and Economic Growth in Africa. African Development Review, 31(2), 190–201.
- Ercan, C., Dayı, F. & Akdemir, E. (2013). Kamu Sağlık İşletmelerinde Finansal Performans Değerlemesi:Kamu HAstaneleri Birlikleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Asia Minor Studies. 1(2). 54-71
- Goldsmith, R. W. (1969). Financial structure and development.
- Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424–438.
- Greenwood, J., & Smith, B. D. (1997). Financial markets in development, and the development of financial markets. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(1), 145–181.
- Guidotti, M. P. E., & De Gregorio, M. J. (1992). Financial development and economic growth (Issues 92–101). International Monetary Fund.
- Gurley, J. G., & Shaw, E. S. (1967). Financial structure and economic development. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 15(3), 257–268.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1997). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels’, University of Cambridge. Revised Version of the DAE Working Paper, 9526.
- İnançlı, S.; Altıntaş, N. & İnal, V. (2016). Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Kastamonu Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. 14, 36-49
- Jagadish Prasad Bist | (2018) Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of 16 African and non-African low-income countries, Cogent Economics & Finance, 6:1, 1449780
- Jones, G. A., & Rodgers, D. (2011). The World Bank’s World Development Report 2011 on conflict, security and development: a critique through five vignettes. Journal of International Development, 23(7), 980–995.
- Jung, W. S. (1986). Financial development and economic growth: international evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 333–346.
- Kandir, S. Y., İskenderoğlu, A. & Önay, G. (2007). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 16(2), 311–326.
- Kao, C., & Liu, S.-T. (2000). Fuzzy efficiency measures in data envelopment analysis. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 113(3), 427–437.
- Kar, M., Nazlıoglu, S., & Agır, H. (2011). Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries:Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. Economic Modeling, 28, 685–693.
- Karameli̇kli̇, H , Kesgi̇ngöz, H . (2017). Finansal Gelişme Bileşenlerinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği . İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi , 6 (1) , 683-701
- King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993a). Finance, entrepreneurship and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 513–542.
- King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993b). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717–737.
- Levin, A., & Lin, C.-F. (1993). Unit root tests in panel data. Dept. of Economics, University of California-San Diego.
- Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688–726.
- Levine, Ross. (1999). Law, finance, and economic growth. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 8(1–2), 8–35.
- Levine, Ross, Loayza, N., & Beck, T. (2000). Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes. Journal of Monetary Economics, 46(1), 31–77.
- Levine, Ross, & Renelt, D. (1992). A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. The American Economic Review, 942–963.
- Levine, Ross (2004), “Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, Working Paper 10766, http://www.nber.org/papers/w10766
- Loayza, N., & Ranciere, R. (2004). Financial development, financial fragility, and growth. The World Bank.
- Lucas, R. E. (1998). On the mechanics of economic development. Econometric Society Monographs, 29, 61–70.
- Luintel, K. B., & Khan, M. (1999). A quantitative reassessment of the finance–growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR. Journal of Development Economics, 60(2), 381–405.
- Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 631–652.
- Mark, N. C., & Sul, D. (2003). Cointegration vector estimation by panel DOLS and long-run money demand. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 65(5), 655–680.
- McKinnon, J. (1988). Reliability and validity in field research: some strategies and tactics. Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 1(1), 34–54.
- McKinnon, R. I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1973). McKinnonMoney and Capital in Economic Development1973.
- Menyari, Y.E. (2019). Financial Development, Foreign Banks and Economic Growth in Africa. African Development Review. 31(2). 190-201
- Odedokun, M. O. (1996). Alternative econometric approaches for analysing the role of the financial sector in economic growth: Time-series evidence from LDCs. Journal of Development Economics, 50(1), 119–146.
- Patrick, H. T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174–189.
- Pedroni, P. (2001a). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. In Nonstationary panels, panel cointegration, and dynamic panels (pp. 93–130). Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Pedroni, P. (2001b). Purchasing power parity tests in cointegrated panels. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4), 727–731.
- Rajan, R. G., & Zingales, L. (1996). Financial dependence and growth. National bureau of economic research.
- Robinson, J. (1952). The Generalization of the General Theory, in: The Rate of Interest and Other Essays (MacMillan, London).
- Savvides, A. (1995). Economic growth in Africa. World Development, 23(3), 449–458.
- Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The theory of economic development (Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung). Opie, Redvers (trans.) Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
- Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development.
- Singh, A. (1997). Financial liberalisation, stockmarkets and economic development. The Economic Journal, 107(442), 771–782.
- Spears, A. (1992). The role of financial intermediation in economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Canadian Journal of Development Studies/Revue Canadienne d’études Du Développement, 13(3), 361–380.
- Stern, N. (1989). The economics of development: a survey. The Economic Journal, 99(397), 597–685.
- Svaleryd, H., & Vlachos, J. (2005). Financial markets, the pattern of industrial specialization and comparative advantage: Evidence from OECD countries. European Economic Review, 49(1), 113–144.
- Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Phi, N. T. M., Hong, H. H. T., & Chu, V. T. (2019). Does Financial Integration Matter for Financial Development? Evidence from the East Asian and Pacific Region. Journal of Economic Integration, 34(4), 591–618.
- Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250.
- Yang, F. (2019). The impact of financial development on economic growth in middle-income countries. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 59, 74-89.
The Direction of Causality between Economic Growth and Financial Development in Upper Middle-Income Countries
Öz
The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic growth and financial development for the period 1980 - 2017 in Upper-Middle-Income countries by employing panel (FMOLS, DOLS and GMM) and panel Granger-causality tests by Toda–Yamamoto. The results confirmed that domestic credit to private sector (percentage of GDP) and broad money (percentage of GDP) have a positive effect on economic growth. As a result, it can be said that financial development accelerates economic growth. In addition, the results showed that unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development in the countries of Jordan, Morocco, Belize, Botswana, China, Guatemala, Paraguay, Peru, and Thailand. While, the unidirectional causal relationship is running from financial development to growth in the countries of Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Dominican Republic, Malaysia, South Africa and Turkey. In contrast, there is no causal relationship in Oman, Tunisia, Brazil, Mauritius and Mexico
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Aimer, N. M. M. (2016). Crude Oil Prices and Economic Development in Libya. Energy Economics Letters, 3(3), 30–41.
- Andriesz, E., Asteriou, D., & Pilbeam, K. (2005). The linkage between financial liberalization and economic development: empirical evidence from Poland. Journal of Economic Integration, 383–399.
- Antzoulatos, A. A., Thanopoulos, J., & Tsoumas, C. (2008). Financial System Structure and Change-1986-2005 Evidence from the OECD Countries. Journal of Economic Integration, 977–1001.
- Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51.
- Arestis, P., & Demetriades, P. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: assessing the evidence. The Economic Journal, 107(442), 783–799.
- Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. R., & Lundblad, C. (2001). Emerging equity markets and economic development. Journal of Development Economics, 66(2), 465–504.
- Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), 249–272.
- Çeştepe, H., & Yıldırım, E. (2016). Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(12), 12-26.
- De Gregorio, J., & Guidotti, P. E. (1995). Financial development and economic growth. World Development, 23(3), 433–448.
- Demetriades, P. O., & Hussein, K. A. (1996). Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries. Journal of Development Economics, 51(2), 387–411.
- Demetriades, P. O., & Luintel, K. B. (1996). Financial development, economic growth and banking sector controls: evidence from India. The Economic Journal, 106(435), 359–374.
- Dolado, J. J., & Lütkepohl, H. (1996). Making Wald tests work for cointegrated VAR systems. Econometric Reviews, 15(4), 369–386.
- Durusu-Ciftci, D., Ispir, M. S., & Yetkiner, H. (2017). Financial development and economic growth: Some theory and more evidence. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(2), 290-306.
- El Menyari, Y. (2019). Financial Development, Foreign Banks and Economic Growth in Africa. African Development Review, 31(2), 190–201.
- Ercan, C., Dayı, F. & Akdemir, E. (2013). Kamu Sağlık İşletmelerinde Finansal Performans Değerlemesi:Kamu HAstaneleri Birlikleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Asia Minor Studies. 1(2). 54-71
- Goldsmith, R. W. (1969). Financial structure and development.
- Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424–438.
- Greenwood, J., & Smith, B. D. (1997). Financial markets in development, and the development of financial markets. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(1), 145–181.
- Guidotti, M. P. E., & De Gregorio, M. J. (1992). Financial development and economic growth (Issues 92–101). International Monetary Fund.
- Gurley, J. G., & Shaw, E. S. (1967). Financial structure and economic development. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 15(3), 257–268.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1997). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels’, University of Cambridge. Revised Version of the DAE Working Paper, 9526.
- İnançlı, S.; Altıntaş, N. & İnal, V. (2016). Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Kastamonu Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. 14, 36-49
- Jagadish Prasad Bist | (2018) Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of 16 African and non-African low-income countries, Cogent Economics & Finance, 6:1, 1449780
- Jones, G. A., & Rodgers, D. (2011). The World Bank’s World Development Report 2011 on conflict, security and development: a critique through five vignettes. Journal of International Development, 23(7), 980–995.
- Jung, W. S. (1986). Financial development and economic growth: international evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 333–346.
- Kandir, S. Y., İskenderoğlu, A. & Önay, G. (2007). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 16(2), 311–326.
- Kao, C., & Liu, S.-T. (2000). Fuzzy efficiency measures in data envelopment analysis. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 113(3), 427–437.
- Kar, M., Nazlıoglu, S., & Agır, H. (2011). Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries:Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. Economic Modeling, 28, 685–693.
- Karameli̇kli̇, H , Kesgi̇ngöz, H . (2017). Finansal Gelişme Bileşenlerinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği . İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi , 6 (1) , 683-701
- King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993a). Finance, entrepreneurship and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 513–542.
- King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993b). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717–737.
- Levin, A., & Lin, C.-F. (1993). Unit root tests in panel data. Dept. of Economics, University of California-San Diego.
- Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688–726.
- Levine, Ross. (1999). Law, finance, and economic growth. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 8(1–2), 8–35.
- Levine, Ross, Loayza, N., & Beck, T. (2000). Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes. Journal of Monetary Economics, 46(1), 31–77.
- Levine, Ross, & Renelt, D. (1992). A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. The American Economic Review, 942–963.
- Levine, Ross (2004), “Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, Working Paper 10766, http://www.nber.org/papers/w10766
- Loayza, N., & Ranciere, R. (2004). Financial development, financial fragility, and growth. The World Bank.
- Lucas, R. E. (1998). On the mechanics of economic development. Econometric Society Monographs, 29, 61–70.
- Luintel, K. B., & Khan, M. (1999). A quantitative reassessment of the finance–growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR. Journal of Development Economics, 60(2), 381–405.
- Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 631–652.
- Mark, N. C., & Sul, D. (2003). Cointegration vector estimation by panel DOLS and long-run money demand. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 65(5), 655–680.
- McKinnon, J. (1988). Reliability and validity in field research: some strategies and tactics. Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 1(1), 34–54.
- McKinnon, R. I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1973). McKinnonMoney and Capital in Economic Development1973.
- Menyari, Y.E. (2019). Financial Development, Foreign Banks and Economic Growth in Africa. African Development Review. 31(2). 190-201
- Odedokun, M. O. (1996). Alternative econometric approaches for analysing the role of the financial sector in economic growth: Time-series evidence from LDCs. Journal of Development Economics, 50(1), 119–146.
- Patrick, H. T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174–189.
- Pedroni, P. (2001a). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. In Nonstationary panels, panel cointegration, and dynamic panels (pp. 93–130). Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Pedroni, P. (2001b). Purchasing power parity tests in cointegrated panels. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4), 727–731.
- Rajan, R. G., & Zingales, L. (1996). Financial dependence and growth. National bureau of economic research.
- Robinson, J. (1952). The Generalization of the General Theory, in: The Rate of Interest and Other Essays (MacMillan, London).
- Savvides, A. (1995). Economic growth in Africa. World Development, 23(3), 449–458.
- Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The theory of economic development (Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung). Opie, Redvers (trans.) Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
- Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development.
- Singh, A. (1997). Financial liberalisation, stockmarkets and economic development. The Economic Journal, 107(442), 771–782.
- Spears, A. (1992). The role of financial intermediation in economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Canadian Journal of Development Studies/Revue Canadienne d’études Du Développement, 13(3), 361–380.
- Stern, N. (1989). The economics of development: a survey. The Economic Journal, 99(397), 597–685.
- Svaleryd, H., & Vlachos, J. (2005). Financial markets, the pattern of industrial specialization and comparative advantage: Evidence from OECD countries. European Economic Review, 49(1), 113–144.
- Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Phi, N. T. M., Hong, H. H. T., & Chu, V. T. (2019). Does Financial Integration Matter for Financial Development? Evidence from the East Asian and Pacific Region. Journal of Economic Integration, 34(4), 591–618.
- Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250.
- Yang, F. (2019). The impact of financial development on economic growth in middle-income countries. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 59, 74-89.
Toplam 61 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 30 Haziran 2021 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2021 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1 |
Cited By
TÜRKİYE’DE FİNANSAL GELİŞME ve EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: FOURİER TESTLERDEN KANITLAR
Journal of Empirical Economics and Social Sciences
https://doi.org/10.46959/jeess.993931
"Econder International Academic Journal" Ekonomi ve İşletmenin tüm yönleriyle ilgili bilimsel makaleler yayınlamaya adanmış uluslararası hakemli bir multidisipliner dergidir. Yılda iki kez çevrimiçi olarak sunulan ve yayınlanan dergide, Ekonomi ve İşletmenin tüm alanlarındaki yeni bulgular ve tartışmalar için dünyanın önde gelen platformlarından biri olmayı hedefliyoruz.
