Öz
Bu çalışmada, dört
Ortadoğu ülkesinde (Türkiye, Suudi Arabistan, Mısır ve İran) gerçekleşen
terörizmin GSYH üzerindeki etkisi, panel veri analizi ile 2003-2016 dönemi için
test edilmiştir. Terör, bir ekonomide belirsizlik düzeyini arttırmakta, sermaye
birikimini azaltmakta ve sonuçta finansal piyasaları olumsuz yönde
etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın önceki çalışmalardan farkı, politik ve askeri
alanda çıkarları çatışan dört ülkede yaşanan terörün ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki
etkilerini ortaya koymasıdır. Yine literatürdeki diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak analize
İran ekonomisi dahil edilmiştir. Çalışmada
sabit ve rassal etkili ekonometrik regresyon modelleri oluşturulmuş ve Hausman
testi ile rassal etkiler modelinin kullanılması gerektiği sonucuna
ulaşılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda terörizmin GSYH büyümesi üzerinde negatif yönde
ve yüksek oranlı bir etkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ekonomik Büyüme Ortadoğu Finansal Piyasalar Küresel Terörizm Endeksi Panel Veri Analizi
Kaynakça
- Abadie, A. ve Gardeazabal, J. (2008). Terrorism and The World Economy. European Economic Review, 52, ss. 1-27.
- Ağırman, E., Özcan, M. ve Yılmaz, Ö. (2014). Terörizmin Finansal Piyasalara Etkisi: Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Bankacılık Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 8 (2), ss. 99-117.
- Akıncı, M., Akıncı, G. Y. ve Yılmaz, Ö. (2015). Terörizmin Doğrudan ve Dolaylı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Dış Yardımlar Ne Kadar Telafi Edici? Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 70 (1), ss. 1-33.
- Altay H., Ekinci, A. ve Peçe, M. A. (2013). Ortadoğu’da Terörün Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye, Mısır ve Suudi Arabistan Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 37, ss. 267-288.
- Araz, T. B., Arin, K. P. ve Omay, T. (2009). The Endogenous and Non-Linear Relationship Between Terrorism and Economic Performance: Turkish Evidence. Defence and Peace Economics, 20 (1), ss. 1-10.
- Arin, K. P., Ciferri, D. ve Spagnolo, N. (2008). The Price Of Terror: The Effects of Terrorism on Stock Market Returns and Volatility. Economics Letters, 101, ss. 164-167.
- Bandyopadhyay, S. ve Younas, J. (2011). Poverty, Political Freedom, and The Roots of Terrorism in Developing Countries: An Empirical Assessment. Economics Letters, 112, ss. 171–175.
- Başar, S., Künü, S. ve Hopoğlu, S. (2016). Terörün BRICS ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 53 (618), ss. 43-50.
- Blomberg, S. B., Hess, G. D., ve Orphanides, A. (2004). The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51 (5), ss. 1007-1032.
- Brück, T. ve Wickström, B. A. (2004). The Economic Consequences of Terror: A Brief Survey. Households in Conflict Network (HICN), Working Paper 03, ss. 1-13. Caruso, R. ve Schneider, F. (2011). The Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism and Political Violence in Western Europe (1994–2007). European Journal of Political Economy, 27, ss. 37-49.
- Chesney, M., Reshetar, G. ve Karaman, M. (2011). The Impact of Terrorism on Financial Markets: An Empirical Study. Journal of Banking&Finance, 35, ss. 253-267.
- Çemrek, F., ve Burhan, E. (2014). Petrol Tüketiminin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisinin Panel Veri Analizi İle İncelenmesi: Avrupa Birliği Ülkeleri Ve Türkiye Örneği. Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 6 (3), ss. 47-58.
- Çınar, M. (2017). The Effects of Terrorism on Economic Growth: Panel Data Approach. Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakultet au Rijeci, 35 (1), ss. 97-121.
- Eckstein, Z. ve Tsiddon, D. (2004). Macroeconomic Consequences of Terror: Theory and The Case of Israel. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51, ss. 971-1002.
- Eisinger, P. (2004). The American City in The Age of Terror: A Preliminary Assessment of The Effects of September 11. Urban Affairs Review, 40 (1), ss. 115-130.
- Freytag, A., Krüger, J. J., Meierrieks, D. ve Schneider, F. (2011). The Origins of Terrorism: Cross-Country Estimates of Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism. European Journal of Political Economy, 27, ss. 5-16.
- Gaibulloev, K. ve Sandler, T. (2009). The Impact of Terrorism and Conflicts on Growth in Asia. Economics&Politics, 21 (3), ss. 359-383.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1), ss. 53-74.
- Korkmaz, Ö., Erer, D. ve Erer, E. (2017). Terör Olaylarının Finansal Piyasalar Üzerine Etkisi. Sosyoekonomi, 25 (31), ss. 11-30.
- Levin, A., Lin, C. F. ve Chu, J., (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108 (1), ss. 1-24.
- Llussá, F. ve Tavares, J. (2011). Which Terror at Which Cost? On The Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks. Economic Letters, 110, ss. 52-55.
- Malik, Z. ve Zaman, K. (2013). Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism in Pakistan. Journal of Policy Modeling, 35, ss. 1103-1123.
- Nitsch, V. ve Schumacher, D. (2004). Terrorism and International Trade: An Empirical Investigation. European Journal of Political Economy, 20, ss. 423–433.
- Öcal, N., Yıldırım, J. (2010). Regional Effects of Terrorism on Economic Growth in Turkey: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach. Journal of Peace Research, 47 (4), ss. 477-489.
- Özcan, C. C. (2015). Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirinin Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 24 (1), ss. 203-220.
- Pizam, A. ve Smith G. (2000). Tourism and Terrorism: A Quantitative Analysis of Major Terrorist Acts And Their Impact on Tourism Destinations. Tourism Economics, 6 (2), ss. 123-138.
- Saha, S. ve Yap, G. (2014). The Moderation Effects Of Political Instability and Terrorism On Tourism Development: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 53 (4), ss. 509-521.
- Vision Of Humanity, (2017). Global Terrorism Index, http://visionofhumanity.org/indexes/terrorism-index/. Erişim Tarihi: (03/12/2017).
- Wijeweera, A., ve Webb, M. J. (2011). Military Spending and Economic Growth In South Asia: A Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 22 (5), ss. 545-554.
- World Bank, (2017). World Bank Datas, https://data.worldbank.org/. Erişim Tarihi: (03/12/2017).
Öz
In
this study, the effect of terrorism, which occurs in four Middle East countries
(Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran), on GDP was tested for the period
2003-2016 using panel data analysis. Terror increases the level of uncertainty
in an economy, reduces capital accumulation and consequently affects financial markets
negatively. The difference of this study from the previous studies is that it
reveals the effects of terrorism occurring in the four countries that are
conflicting in terms of political and military interests on the economic
growth. Also unlike other studies in the literature, the study included the
Iranian economy in the analysis. Fixed and random effective econometric
regression models were established in the study and it was concluded that it
was necessary to use the Hausman test and the random effects model. As a result
of the study, it was found that terrorism had a higher and negative effect on
the GDP growth.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Economic Growth Middle East Financial Markets Global Terrorism Index Panel Data Analysis
Kaynakça
- Abadie, A. ve Gardeazabal, J. (2008). Terrorism and The World Economy. European Economic Review, 52, ss. 1-27.
- Ağırman, E., Özcan, M. ve Yılmaz, Ö. (2014). Terörizmin Finansal Piyasalara Etkisi: Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Bankacılık Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 8 (2), ss. 99-117.
- Akıncı, M., Akıncı, G. Y. ve Yılmaz, Ö. (2015). Terörizmin Doğrudan ve Dolaylı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Dış Yardımlar Ne Kadar Telafi Edici? Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 70 (1), ss. 1-33.
- Altay H., Ekinci, A. ve Peçe, M. A. (2013). Ortadoğu’da Terörün Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye, Mısır ve Suudi Arabistan Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 37, ss. 267-288.
- Araz, T. B., Arin, K. P. ve Omay, T. (2009). The Endogenous and Non-Linear Relationship Between Terrorism and Economic Performance: Turkish Evidence. Defence and Peace Economics, 20 (1), ss. 1-10.
- Arin, K. P., Ciferri, D. ve Spagnolo, N. (2008). The Price Of Terror: The Effects of Terrorism on Stock Market Returns and Volatility. Economics Letters, 101, ss. 164-167.
- Bandyopadhyay, S. ve Younas, J. (2011). Poverty, Political Freedom, and The Roots of Terrorism in Developing Countries: An Empirical Assessment. Economics Letters, 112, ss. 171–175.
- Başar, S., Künü, S. ve Hopoğlu, S. (2016). Terörün BRICS ve MINT Ülkelerindeki Turizm Faaliyetleri Üzerine Etkisi. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 53 (618), ss. 43-50.
- Blomberg, S. B., Hess, G. D., ve Orphanides, A. (2004). The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51 (5), ss. 1007-1032.
- Brück, T. ve Wickström, B. A. (2004). The Economic Consequences of Terror: A Brief Survey. Households in Conflict Network (HICN), Working Paper 03, ss. 1-13. Caruso, R. ve Schneider, F. (2011). The Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism and Political Violence in Western Europe (1994–2007). European Journal of Political Economy, 27, ss. 37-49.
- Chesney, M., Reshetar, G. ve Karaman, M. (2011). The Impact of Terrorism on Financial Markets: An Empirical Study. Journal of Banking&Finance, 35, ss. 253-267.
- Çemrek, F., ve Burhan, E. (2014). Petrol Tüketiminin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisinin Panel Veri Analizi İle İncelenmesi: Avrupa Birliği Ülkeleri Ve Türkiye Örneği. Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 6 (3), ss. 47-58.
- Çınar, M. (2017). The Effects of Terrorism on Economic Growth: Panel Data Approach. Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakultet au Rijeci, 35 (1), ss. 97-121.
- Eckstein, Z. ve Tsiddon, D. (2004). Macroeconomic Consequences of Terror: Theory and The Case of Israel. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51, ss. 971-1002.
- Eisinger, P. (2004). The American City in The Age of Terror: A Preliminary Assessment of The Effects of September 11. Urban Affairs Review, 40 (1), ss. 115-130.
- Freytag, A., Krüger, J. J., Meierrieks, D. ve Schneider, F. (2011). The Origins of Terrorism: Cross-Country Estimates of Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism. European Journal of Political Economy, 27, ss. 5-16.
- Gaibulloev, K. ve Sandler, T. (2009). The Impact of Terrorism and Conflicts on Growth in Asia. Economics&Politics, 21 (3), ss. 359-383.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1), ss. 53-74.
- Korkmaz, Ö., Erer, D. ve Erer, E. (2017). Terör Olaylarının Finansal Piyasalar Üzerine Etkisi. Sosyoekonomi, 25 (31), ss. 11-30.
- Levin, A., Lin, C. F. ve Chu, J., (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108 (1), ss. 1-24.
- Llussá, F. ve Tavares, J. (2011). Which Terror at Which Cost? On The Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks. Economic Letters, 110, ss. 52-55.
- Malik, Z. ve Zaman, K. (2013). Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism in Pakistan. Journal of Policy Modeling, 35, ss. 1103-1123.
- Nitsch, V. ve Schumacher, D. (2004). Terrorism and International Trade: An Empirical Investigation. European Journal of Political Economy, 20, ss. 423–433.
- Öcal, N., Yıldırım, J. (2010). Regional Effects of Terrorism on Economic Growth in Turkey: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach. Journal of Peace Research, 47 (4), ss. 477-489.
- Özcan, C. C. (2015). Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirinin Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 24 (1), ss. 203-220.
- Pizam, A. ve Smith G. (2000). Tourism and Terrorism: A Quantitative Analysis of Major Terrorist Acts And Their Impact on Tourism Destinations. Tourism Economics, 6 (2), ss. 123-138.
- Saha, S. ve Yap, G. (2014). The Moderation Effects Of Political Instability and Terrorism On Tourism Development: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 53 (4), ss. 509-521.
- Vision Of Humanity, (2017). Global Terrorism Index, http://visionofhumanity.org/indexes/terrorism-index/. Erişim Tarihi: (03/12/2017).
- Wijeweera, A., ve Webb, M. J. (2011). Military Spending and Economic Growth In South Asia: A Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 22 (5), ss. 545-554.
- World Bank, (2017). World Bank Datas, https://data.worldbank.org/. Erişim Tarihi: (03/12/2017).
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 30 Haziran 2019 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2019 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2 |
