Araştırma Makalesi
TODA-YAMAMOTO CAUSALITY TEST BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL OF MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES.
Öz
In this paper, we examine the intertemporal causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in the selected sixteen the Middle East and North Africa countries by annual data (1985–2016). Unlike the majority of the previous studies and as an alternative to the conventional method of having the same integration of time series and large samples, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test approach and causality analysis were applied by Toda & Yamamoto (1995). The results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long run relationship between economic growth and total final energy consumption. On the other hand, the results of the causality test, show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to total energy consumption that energy conservation policies may not unfavourable effects on economic growth. Overall, these countries meet the conservation hypothesis which means that the causal aspect is unidirectional from economic growth to total final energy consumption and that energy conservation policies will have little or no negative impact on growth in these energy-dependent countries.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Teşekkür
Thank you very much for your attention
Kaynakça
- 1. Abosedra, S., & Baghestani, H. (1989). New evidence on the causal relationship between United States energy consumption and gross national product. The Journal of Energy and Development, 285–292. 2. Aimer, N. M. (2018). Estımatıng The Impact of Oıl Rents on The Economıc Growth of The OPEC Countrıes. European Journal of Management and Marketing Studies. 3. Aimer, N. M. M. (2016). The effects of fluctuations of oil price on economic growth of Libya. 4. Akarca, A. T., & Long, T. V. (1980). On the relationship between energy and GNP: a reexamination. The Journal of Energy and Development, 326–331. 5. Al-Iriani, M. A. (2006). Energy–GDP relationship revisited: an example from GCC countries using panel causality. Energy Policy, 34(17), 3342–3350. 6. Amri, F. (2017). Intercourse across economic growth, trade and renewable energy consumption in developing and developed countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 69, 527–534. 7. Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2009). Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States. Energy Economics, 31(5), 641–647. 8. Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2000). The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries. Energy Economics, 22(6), 615–625. 9. Aytaç, D. (2010). Enerji ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin çok değişkenli VAR yaklaşımı ile tahmini. Maliye Dergisi, 158(1), 482–495. 10. Bhattacharya, M., Churchill, S. A., & Paramati, S. R. (2017). The dynamic impact of renewable energy and institutions on economic output and CO2 emissions across regions. Renewable Energy, 111, 157–167. 11. Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–163. 12. Burney, N. A. (1995). Socioeconomic development and electricity consumption A cross-country analysis using the random coefficient method. Energy Economics, 17(3), 185–195. 13. Chaofeng, Y., & Weizhong, C. (2005). An Empirical Study on the Relationship between China’s Energy Consumption and Economic Growth [J]. Journal of the University of Petroleum, 1. 14. Chen, S.-T., Kuo, H.-I., & Chen, C.-C. (2007). The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian countries. Energy Policy, 35(4), 2611–2621. 15. Cheng, B. S., & Lai, T. W. (1997). An investigation of co-integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 19(4), 435–444. 16. Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), 249–272. 17. Eden, S. H., & Hwang, B.-K. (1984). The relationship between energy and GNP: further results. Energy Economics, 6(3), 186–190. 18. Eden, S. H., & Jin, J. C. (1992). Cointegration tests of energy consumption, income, and employment. Resources and Energy, 14(3), 259–266. 19. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251–276. 20. Erol, U., & Eden, S. H. (1990). Spectral analysis of the relationship between energy consumption, employment, and business cycles. Resources and Energy, 11(4), 395–412. 21. Glasure, Y. U., & Lee, A.-R. (1998). Cointegration, error-correction, and the relationship between GDP and energy:: The case of South Korea and Singapore. Resource and Energy Economics, 20(1), 17–25. 22. Haug, A. A. (2002). Temporal aggregation and the power of cointegration tests: a Monte Carlo study. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(4), 399–412. 23. Ho, C.-Y., & Siu, K. W. (2007). A dynamic equilibrium of electricity consumption and GDP in Hong Kong: an empirical investigation. Energy Policy, 35(4), 2507–2513. 24. Hwang, D. B. K., & Gum, B. (1991). The causal relationship between energy and GNP: the case of Taiwan. The Journal of Energy and Development, 219–226. 25. Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1997). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels’, University of Cambridge. Revised Version of the DAE Working Paper, (9526). 26. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254. 27. Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210. 28. Jumbe, C. B. L. (2004). Cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: empirical evidence from Malawi. Energy Economics, 26(1), 61–68. 29. Kahia, M., Aïssa, M. S. Ben, & Charfeddine, L. (2016). Impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth: New evidence from the MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries (NOECs). Energy, 116, 102–115. 30. Karanfil, F. (2009). How many times again will we examine the energy-income nexus using a limited range of traditional econometric tools? Energy Policy, 37(4), 1191–1194. 31. Kazim, A. M. (2007). Assessments of primary energy consumption and its environmental consequences in the United Arab Emirates. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 11(3), 426–446. 32. Kesgingöz, H., & Dilek, S. (2016). Investigation of TR82 Region According to The Growth Stages of Rostow. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 4(4), 180–189. 33. Koa, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1–44. 34. Kraft, J., & Kraft, A. (1978). On the relationship between energy and GNP. The Journal of Energy and Development, 401–403. 35. Leach, G., & Gowen, M. (1987). Household energy handbook: an interim guide and reference manual. 36. Lee, C.-C., & Chang, C.-P. (2005). Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: evidence from Taiwan. Energy Economics, 27(6), 857–872. 37. Lee, C.-C., & Chang, C.-P. (2007). Energy consumption and GDP revisited: a panel analysis of developed and developing countries. Energy Economics, 29(6), 1206–1223. 38. Levin, A., Lin, C.-F., & Chu, C.-S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1–24. 39. Lütkepohl, H. (1982). Non-causality due to omitted variables. Journal of Econometrics, 19(2–3), 367–378. 40. Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(0), 631–652. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.13 41. Masih, A. M. M., & Masih, R. (1996). Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: Results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. Energy Economics, 18(3), 165–183. 42. Masih, A. M. M., & Masih, R. (1997). on the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction approach. Journal of Policy Modeling, 19(4), 417–440. 43. Mehrara, M. (2007). Energy consumption and economic growth: the case of oil exporting countries. Energy Policy, 35(5), 2939–2945. 44. Murry, D. A., & Nan, G. D. (1990). The energy consumption and employment relationship: a clarification. The Journal of Energy and Development, 121–131. 45. Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. 46. Oh, W., & Lee, K. (2004). Energy consumption and economic growth in Korea: testing the causality relation. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(8–9), 973–981. 47. Ozturk, I. (2010). A literature survey on energy–growth nexus. Energy Policy, 38(1), 340–349. 48. Payne, J. E. (2010). Survey of the international evidence on the causal relationship between energy consumption and growth. Journal of Economic Studies, 37(1), 53–95. 49. Pedroni, P. (1997). Panel Cointegration; Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests, With an Application to the PPP Hypothesis; New Results. Working paper. 50. Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 653–670. 51. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. 52. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–634. 53. Sims, C. A. (1972). Money, income, and causality. The American Economic Review, 62(4), 540–552. 54. Squalli, J. (2007). Electricity consumption and economic growth: Bounds and causality analyses of OPEC members. Energy Economics, 29(6), 1192–1205. 55. Stern, D. I. (1993). Energy and economic growth in the USA: a multivariate approach. Energy Economics, 15(2), 137–150. 56. Tang, W., Wu, L., & Zhang, Z. (2009). Oil Price Shocks and their Short- and Long-Term Effects on the Chinese Economy. In East-West Center. 57. Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250. 58. Tsani, S. Z. (2010). Energy consumption and economic growth: A causality analysis for Greece. Energy Economics, 32(3), 582–590. 59. Wang, Y., Wang, Y., Zhou, J., Zhu, X., & Lu, G. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth in China: A multivariate causality test. Energy Policy, 39(7), 4399–4406. 60. Yang, H.-Y. (2000). A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 22(3), 309–317. 61. Yoo, S.-H. (2005). Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Korea. Energy Policy, 33(12), 1627–1632. 62. Yu, E. S. H., & Choi, J.-Y. (1985). The causal relationship between energy and GNP: an international comparison. The Journal of Energy and Development, 249–272.
Yıl 2021,
Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1, 56 - 78, 31.03.2021
Öz
Kaynakça
- 1. Abosedra, S., & Baghestani, H. (1989). New evidence on the causal relationship between United States energy consumption and gross national product. The Journal of Energy and Development, 285–292. 2. Aimer, N. M. (2018). Estımatıng The Impact of Oıl Rents on The Economıc Growth of The OPEC Countrıes. European Journal of Management and Marketing Studies. 3. Aimer, N. M. M. (2016). The effects of fluctuations of oil price on economic growth of Libya. 4. Akarca, A. T., & Long, T. V. (1980). On the relationship between energy and GNP: a reexamination. The Journal of Energy and Development, 326–331. 5. Al-Iriani, M. A. (2006). Energy–GDP relationship revisited: an example from GCC countries using panel causality. Energy Policy, 34(17), 3342–3350. 6. Amri, F. (2017). Intercourse across economic growth, trade and renewable energy consumption in developing and developed countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 69, 527–534. 7. Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2009). Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States. Energy Economics, 31(5), 641–647. 8. Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2000). The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries. Energy Economics, 22(6), 615–625. 9. Aytaç, D. (2010). Enerji ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin çok değişkenli VAR yaklaşımı ile tahmini. Maliye Dergisi, 158(1), 482–495. 10. Bhattacharya, M., Churchill, S. A., & Paramati, S. R. (2017). The dynamic impact of renewable energy and institutions on economic output and CO2 emissions across regions. Renewable Energy, 111, 157–167. 11. Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–163. 12. Burney, N. A. (1995). Socioeconomic development and electricity consumption A cross-country analysis using the random coefficient method. Energy Economics, 17(3), 185–195. 13. Chaofeng, Y., & Weizhong, C. (2005). An Empirical Study on the Relationship between China’s Energy Consumption and Economic Growth [J]. Journal of the University of Petroleum, 1. 14. Chen, S.-T., Kuo, H.-I., & Chen, C.-C. (2007). The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian countries. Energy Policy, 35(4), 2611–2621. 15. Cheng, B. S., & Lai, T. W. (1997). An investigation of co-integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 19(4), 435–444. 16. Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), 249–272. 17. Eden, S. H., & Hwang, B.-K. (1984). The relationship between energy and GNP: further results. Energy Economics, 6(3), 186–190. 18. Eden, S. H., & Jin, J. C. (1992). Cointegration tests of energy consumption, income, and employment. Resources and Energy, 14(3), 259–266. 19. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251–276. 20. Erol, U., & Eden, S. H. (1990). Spectral analysis of the relationship between energy consumption, employment, and business cycles. Resources and Energy, 11(4), 395–412. 21. Glasure, Y. U., & Lee, A.-R. (1998). Cointegration, error-correction, and the relationship between GDP and energy:: The case of South Korea and Singapore. Resource and Energy Economics, 20(1), 17–25. 22. Haug, A. A. (2002). Temporal aggregation and the power of cointegration tests: a Monte Carlo study. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(4), 399–412. 23. Ho, C.-Y., & Siu, K. W. (2007). A dynamic equilibrium of electricity consumption and GDP in Hong Kong: an empirical investigation. Energy Policy, 35(4), 2507–2513. 24. Hwang, D. B. K., & Gum, B. (1991). The causal relationship between energy and GNP: the case of Taiwan. The Journal of Energy and Development, 219–226. 25. Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1997). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels’, University of Cambridge. Revised Version of the DAE Working Paper, (9526). 26. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254. 27. Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210. 28. Jumbe, C. B. L. (2004). Cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: empirical evidence from Malawi. Energy Economics, 26(1), 61–68. 29. Kahia, M., Aïssa, M. S. Ben, & Charfeddine, L. (2016). Impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth: New evidence from the MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries (NOECs). Energy, 116, 102–115. 30. Karanfil, F. (2009). How many times again will we examine the energy-income nexus using a limited range of traditional econometric tools? Energy Policy, 37(4), 1191–1194. 31. Kazim, A. M. (2007). Assessments of primary energy consumption and its environmental consequences in the United Arab Emirates. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 11(3), 426–446. 32. Kesgingöz, H., & Dilek, S. (2016). Investigation of TR82 Region According to The Growth Stages of Rostow. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 4(4), 180–189. 33. Koa, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1–44. 34. Kraft, J., & Kraft, A. (1978). On the relationship between energy and GNP. The Journal of Energy and Development, 401–403. 35. Leach, G., & Gowen, M. (1987). Household energy handbook: an interim guide and reference manual. 36. Lee, C.-C., & Chang, C.-P. (2005). Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: evidence from Taiwan. Energy Economics, 27(6), 857–872. 37. Lee, C.-C., & Chang, C.-P. (2007). Energy consumption and GDP revisited: a panel analysis of developed and developing countries. Energy Economics, 29(6), 1206–1223. 38. Levin, A., Lin, C.-F., & Chu, C.-S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1–24. 39. Lütkepohl, H. (1982). Non-causality due to omitted variables. Journal of Econometrics, 19(2–3), 367–378. 40. Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(0), 631–652. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.13 41. Masih, A. M. M., & Masih, R. (1996). Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: Results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. Energy Economics, 18(3), 165–183. 42. Masih, A. M. M., & Masih, R. (1997). on the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction approach. Journal of Policy Modeling, 19(4), 417–440. 43. Mehrara, M. (2007). Energy consumption and economic growth: the case of oil exporting countries. Energy Policy, 35(5), 2939–2945. 44. Murry, D. A., & Nan, G. D. (1990). The energy consumption and employment relationship: a clarification. The Journal of Energy and Development, 121–131. 45. Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. 46. Oh, W., & Lee, K. (2004). Energy consumption and economic growth in Korea: testing the causality relation. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(8–9), 973–981. 47. Ozturk, I. (2010). A literature survey on energy–growth nexus. Energy Policy, 38(1), 340–349. 48. Payne, J. E. (2010). Survey of the international evidence on the causal relationship between energy consumption and growth. Journal of Economic Studies, 37(1), 53–95. 49. Pedroni, P. (1997). Panel Cointegration; Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests, With an Application to the PPP Hypothesis; New Results. Working paper. 50. Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 653–670. 51. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. 52. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–634. 53. Sims, C. A. (1972). Money, income, and causality. The American Economic Review, 62(4), 540–552. 54. Squalli, J. (2007). Electricity consumption and economic growth: Bounds and causality analyses of OPEC members. Energy Economics, 29(6), 1192–1205. 55. Stern, D. I. (1993). Energy and economic growth in the USA: a multivariate approach. Energy Economics, 15(2), 137–150. 56. Tang, W., Wu, L., & Zhang, Z. (2009). Oil Price Shocks and their Short- and Long-Term Effects on the Chinese Economy. In East-West Center. 57. Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250. 58. Tsani, S. Z. (2010). Energy consumption and economic growth: A causality analysis for Greece. Energy Economics, 32(3), 582–590. 59. Wang, Y., Wang, Y., Zhou, J., Zhu, X., & Lu, G. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth in China: A multivariate causality test. Energy Policy, 39(7), 4399–4406. 60. Yang, H.-Y. (2000). A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 22(3), 309–317. 61. Yoo, S.-H. (2005). Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Korea. Energy Policy, 33(12), 1627–1632. 62. Yu, E. S. H., & Choi, J.-Y. (1985). The causal relationship between energy and GNP: an international comparison. The Journal of Energy and Development, 249–272.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 31 Mart 2021 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2021 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1 |