Araştırma Makalesi
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Savunma İhracatı ve İktisadi Büyüme: Küresel Silah Pazarında Üst Sıralara Tırmanan Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomiler için Ampirik bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 41, 530 - 547, 31.12.2021

Öz

İkinci Dünya Savaşı’nın ardından yaşanan Soğuk Savaş’ın şekillendirdiği uluslararası silah pazarının aktörleri ve dinamikleri bugüne dek çok az değişime uğramıştır. Sovyetler Birliğinin yıkılması ve Çin gibi bir başka önemli aktörün devreye girmesi ile küresel güvenlik algıları değişmiş ve silah ticaretinde ihracatçı yeni ülkeler dikkat çekmeye başlamıştır. Bu çalışma silah ihracat hacmini son yirmi yılda önemli ölçüde arttırabilmiş beş gelişmekte olan ekonomiyi dikkate alarak bir panel ekonometrik analiz gerçekleştirmekte ve savunma ihracatının iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktadır. Ampirik bulgulara göre ithalatı arttırmadan silah ihracatını arttırmanın dikkate değer bir oranda büyümeye destek olacağı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca silah ihracatını arttırmanın askeri harcamaların büyüme üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerini de azaltacağı tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Aizenman, J. and Glick, R. (2006). Military Expenditure, Threats, and Growth, Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 15(2), 129-155.
  • Barro, R. J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 103-125.
  • Barro, Robert J. and Jong-Wha Lee, “International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications”, (CID Working Paper No. 42, April 2000). Available at http://www.cid.harvard.edu/cidwp/042.htm.
  • Béraud-Sudreau, L., Da Silva, D. L., Kuimova, A. and Wezeman, P. D. (2021). “Emerging Suppliers in The Global Arms Trade”, Solna: SIPRI.
  • Blum, J. (2019). Arms Production, National Defense Spending and Arms Trade: Examining Supply and Demand. European Journal of Political Economy, 60, 1-18.
  • Bove, V., Deiana, C. and Nisticò, R. (2018). Global Arms Trade and Oil Dependence. The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 34(2), 272-299.
  • Breusch, T. S. and Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Cameron, C. A. and Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • d’Agostino, G., Dunne, J. P. and Pieroni, L. (2017). Does Military Spending Matter for Long-Run Growth?. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(4), 429-436.
  • David C. Mowery, Chapter 29 - Military R&D and Innovation, Editor(s): Bronwyn H. Hall, Nathan Rosenberg, Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, North-Holland, Volume 2, 2010, Pages 1219-1256.
  • Driscoll, J. C. and Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549-560.
  • Dunne, P. J., Smith, R. P. and Willenbockel, D. (2005). Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A Critical Review. Defense and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449–461.
  • Eberhardt, M. (2012). Estimating Panel Time-Series Models with Heterogeneous Slopes. The Stata Journal, 12(1), 61-71. Eberhardt, M. and Bond, S. (2009). Cross-Section Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. Munich Personal Repec Arch (MPRA), 2009, Paper No. 17692. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/202012/sipriinsight2013_emerging_suppliers.pdf, (14.08.2021).
  • Josifidis, K., Dragutinovic, R., Glavaski, M. O. and Supic N. (2018). Public Policies Influence on Fiscal Deficit in the EU-28: Common Correlated Effects Approach. Hacienda Publica Espanola, 227, 63-101.
  • Lee, C. C. and Chen, S. T. (2007). Non‐linearity in the Defence Expenditure–Economic Growth Relationship in Taiwan. Defence and Peace Economics, 18(6), 537-555.
  • Meyer, D. R. (1998). Formation of Advanced Technology Districts: New England Textile Machinery and Firearms 1790–1820. Economic Geography, 74(1), 31-45.
  • Mylonidis, N. (2008). Revisiting the nexus between military spending and growth in the European Union. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(4), 265-272.
  • Özcan, M. (2021). Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Savunma Harcamalarının İktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: G20 Ülkeleri İçin Mukayeseli Bir Analiz. Güvenlik Bilimleri Dergisi, 2021, 10(1), 79-100.
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No: 0435, University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics.
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2006). Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with A Multifactor Error Structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H. and Smith, R. (1995). Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and Sul D. (2003). Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence. The Econometrics Journal, 6(1), 217-259.
  • Rahman T. and Siddiqui D. A. (2019). “The Effect of Military Spending on Economic Growth in the Presence of Arms Trade: A Global Analysis”, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3401331, (11.08.2021).
  • Ram, R. (1995). Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth. K. Hartley and T. Sandler (Eds.), in Handbook of Defense Economics (pp.251-274), Oxford: Elsevier.
  • Robert J. Barro, Jong-Wha Lee, “Sources of economic growth”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Volume 40,1994, Pages 1-46.
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 1956, 65–94. Teal, F. and Eberhardt, M. (2010). Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production. Economics Series Working Papers No: 515, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Thurner, P. W., Schmid, C. S., Cranmer, S. J. and Kauermann G. (2019). Network Interdependencies and the Evolution of the International Arms Trade. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 63(7), 1736-1764.
  • Yakovlev, P. (2007). Arms Trade, Military Spending, and Economic Growth. Defence and Peace Economics, 18(4), 317-338.
  • Yildirim, J., Sezgin, S. and Öcal, N. (2005). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283-295.
  • Zubair, M. and Wizarat, S. (2018). Arms Trade and Economic Growth Nexus in the Post 9/11 Scenario. International Journal of Development and Conflict, 8(2),115-125.

Defense Exports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Assessment for Emerging Economies Rising to the Top of the Global Arms Market

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 41, 530 - 547, 31.12.2021

Öz

The agents and determinants of the international arms market, shaped by the Cold War following the World War II, have not changed noticeable until today. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the involvement of another important actor such as China, global security perceptions have changed and new countries and new exporting countries in the arms trade have started to draw attention. This study considers five emerging economies that have been able to significantly increase the volume of arms exports in the last two decades, conducting a panel of econometric analyses and investigating the effects of defense exports on economic growth. According to empirical findings, it has been concluded that increasing arms exports without increasing imports supports economic growth. It has also been found that the negative impacts of military spending on growth are reduced by increasing arms exports.

Kaynakça

  • Aizenman, J. and Glick, R. (2006). Military Expenditure, Threats, and Growth, Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 15(2), 129-155.
  • Barro, R. J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 103-125.
  • Barro, Robert J. and Jong-Wha Lee, “International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications”, (CID Working Paper No. 42, April 2000). Available at http://www.cid.harvard.edu/cidwp/042.htm.
  • Béraud-Sudreau, L., Da Silva, D. L., Kuimova, A. and Wezeman, P. D. (2021). “Emerging Suppliers in The Global Arms Trade”, Solna: SIPRI.
  • Blum, J. (2019). Arms Production, National Defense Spending and Arms Trade: Examining Supply and Demand. European Journal of Political Economy, 60, 1-18.
  • Bove, V., Deiana, C. and Nisticò, R. (2018). Global Arms Trade and Oil Dependence. The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 34(2), 272-299.
  • Breusch, T. S. and Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Cameron, C. A. and Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • d’Agostino, G., Dunne, J. P. and Pieroni, L. (2017). Does Military Spending Matter for Long-Run Growth?. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(4), 429-436.
  • David C. Mowery, Chapter 29 - Military R&D and Innovation, Editor(s): Bronwyn H. Hall, Nathan Rosenberg, Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, North-Holland, Volume 2, 2010, Pages 1219-1256.
  • Driscoll, J. C. and Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549-560.
  • Dunne, P. J., Smith, R. P. and Willenbockel, D. (2005). Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A Critical Review. Defense and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449–461.
  • Eberhardt, M. (2012). Estimating Panel Time-Series Models with Heterogeneous Slopes. The Stata Journal, 12(1), 61-71. Eberhardt, M. and Bond, S. (2009). Cross-Section Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. Munich Personal Repec Arch (MPRA), 2009, Paper No. 17692. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/202012/sipriinsight2013_emerging_suppliers.pdf, (14.08.2021).
  • Josifidis, K., Dragutinovic, R., Glavaski, M. O. and Supic N. (2018). Public Policies Influence on Fiscal Deficit in the EU-28: Common Correlated Effects Approach. Hacienda Publica Espanola, 227, 63-101.
  • Lee, C. C. and Chen, S. T. (2007). Non‐linearity in the Defence Expenditure–Economic Growth Relationship in Taiwan. Defence and Peace Economics, 18(6), 537-555.
  • Meyer, D. R. (1998). Formation of Advanced Technology Districts: New England Textile Machinery and Firearms 1790–1820. Economic Geography, 74(1), 31-45.
  • Mylonidis, N. (2008). Revisiting the nexus between military spending and growth in the European Union. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(4), 265-272.
  • Özcan, M. (2021). Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Savunma Harcamalarının İktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: G20 Ülkeleri İçin Mukayeseli Bir Analiz. Güvenlik Bilimleri Dergisi, 2021, 10(1), 79-100.
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No: 0435, University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics.
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2006). Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with A Multifactor Error Structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, H. M. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H. and Smith, R. (1995). Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and Sul D. (2003). Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence. The Econometrics Journal, 6(1), 217-259.
  • Rahman T. and Siddiqui D. A. (2019). “The Effect of Military Spending on Economic Growth in the Presence of Arms Trade: A Global Analysis”, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3401331, (11.08.2021).
  • Ram, R. (1995). Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth. K. Hartley and T. Sandler (Eds.), in Handbook of Defense Economics (pp.251-274), Oxford: Elsevier.
  • Robert J. Barro, Jong-Wha Lee, “Sources of economic growth”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Volume 40,1994, Pages 1-46.
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 1956, 65–94. Teal, F. and Eberhardt, M. (2010). Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production. Economics Series Working Papers No: 515, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Thurner, P. W., Schmid, C. S., Cranmer, S. J. and Kauermann G. (2019). Network Interdependencies and the Evolution of the International Arms Trade. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 63(7), 1736-1764.
  • Yakovlev, P. (2007). Arms Trade, Military Spending, and Economic Growth. Defence and Peace Economics, 18(4), 317-338.
  • Yildirim, J., Sezgin, S. and Öcal, N. (2005). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283-295.
  • Zubair, M. and Wizarat, S. (2018). Arms Trade and Economic Growth Nexus in the Post 9/11 Scenario. International Journal of Development and Conflict, 8(2),115-125.
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Mehmet Özcan 0000-0001-9082-0894

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 23 Sayı: 41

Kaynak Göster

APA Özcan, M. (2021). Savunma İhracatı ve İktisadi Büyüme: Küresel Silah Pazarında Üst Sıralara Tırmanan Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomiler için Ampirik bir Değerlendirme. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal Ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 23(41), 530-547.

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