Yıl 2016,
Cilt: 9 Sayı: 4, 107 - 119, 31.10.2016
Öz
This paper tests the causality relationship existing between electrical power consumption and economic growth in Turkey and Italy by employing a Frequency Domain Causality approach over the period of 1961-2012. The two countries represent a very interesting case-study, since Turkey is an important bridge and outlet for transporting oil and natural gas from Central-Asia to world markets. Italy, however, is one of the least energy intensive countries in the world, mainly due to the high level of taxation in the domestic energy market, which is employed to promote energy efficiency and to reduce energy imports. Previous works, which have analysed the income-energy demand nexus in the two countries separately, have achieved mixed and inconsistent results about the direction of the causality. Our findings show a lack of any causality relationship from electricity consumption to economic growth in Turkey, despite the existence of a significant causality relationship from economic growth to electricity consumption in the long run. While in Italy, electricity consumption seems to cause economic growth in the short, medium and long terms.
Kaynakça
- Aktas, C. and Yilmaz, V. 2008: Causal Relationship between Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey, Kocaeli Universitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15: 45–55.
- Altinay, G. and Karagol, E. 2004: Structural Break, Unit Root, and the Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey, Energy Economics, 26 (6), 985–994.
- Altınay, G. and Karagol, E. 2005: Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey, Energy Economics, 27: 849–856.
- Aslan, A. 2014: Causality between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. Energy Sources, Part B, 9: 25–31.
- Bakirtas, T., Karbuz, S. and Bildirici, M. 2000: An Econometric Analysis of Electricity Demand in Turkey, METU Studies in Development, 27 (1-2): 23-34.
- Bozoklu, S. and Yilanci, V. 2013: Energy Consumption and Economic Growth for Selected OECD Countries: Further Evidence from the Granger Causality Test in the Frequency Domain, Energy Policy, 63: 877–881.
- Breitung, J. and Candelon, B. 2001: Testing for Short and Long Run Causality: The Case of the Yield Spread and Economic Growth, Discussion Papers 96, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Breitung, J. and Candelon, B. 2006: Testing for Short and Long-Run Causality: A Frequency Domain Approach, Journal of Econometrics, 132, 363−378.
- Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. 1987: Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing, Econometrica, 55: 251–276.
- Erdal, G., Erdal, H. and Esengun, K. 2008: The Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey, Energy Policy, 36:3838–3842.
- Erol, U. and Yu, E.S.H. 1987: On the Causal Relationship between Energy and Income for Industrialized Countries, Journal of Energy Development, 13: 113–122.
- Fuinhas, J. A. and Marques, A. C. 2012: Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach (1965–2009), Energy Economics, 34: 511–517.
- Geweke, J. 1982: Measurement of Linear Dependence and Feedback between Multiple Time Series, Journal of American Statistical Association, 77, 304–313.
- Granger, C.W.J. 1969: Investigating Causal Relationship by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Econometrica, 37: 424-438.
- Granger, C.W.J. 1986: Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 48: 213-228.
- Halicioglu, F. 2007: Residential Electricity Demand Dynamics in Turkey, Energy Economics, 29: 199–210.
- Hosaya, Y. 1991: The Decomposition and Measurement of the Interdependence between Second-Order Stationary Process, Probability Theoryand Related Fields, 88, 429-444.
- Jobert, T. and Karanfil, F. 2007: Sectoral Energy Consumption by Source and Economic Growth in Turkey, Energy Policy, 35: 5447–5456.
- Jumbe, C.B.L. 2004: Cointegration and Causality between Electricity Consumption and GDP: Empirical Evidence from Malawi, Energy Economics, 26(1): 61-68.
- Karagol, E., Erbaykal, E. and Ertugrul, H. M. 2006: Oil Consumption and GNP Relationship in Turkey: An Empirical Study, International Conference on Human and Economic Resources, Izmir, Turkey, May 24–25, 366–372.
- Karanfil, F. 2008: Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited: Does the Size of Unrecorded Economy Matter?, Energy Policy, 36: 3029–3035.
- Kraft, J. and Kraft, A. 1978: On the Relationship between Energy and GNP, Journal of Energy Development, 3: 401-403.
- Lee, C.C. 2006: The Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in G 11 Countries Revisited, Energy Policy, 34: 1086–1093.
- Lee, C.C. and Chien, M.S. 2010: Dynamic Modelling of Energy Consumption, Capital Stock and Real Income in G-7 Countries, Energy Economics, 32: 564–581.
- Lise, W. and Van Montfort, K. 2007: Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey: Is There A Cointegration Relationship?, Energy Economics, 29(6): 1166–1178.
- Narayan, P.K. and Smyth, R. 2005: Electricity Consumption, Employment and Real Income in Australia: Evidence from Multivariate Granger Causality Tests, Energy Policy, 33: 1109–1116.
- Narayan, P. K. and Prasad, A. 2008: Electricity Consumption-Real GDP Causality Nexus: Evidence from A Bootstrapped Causality Test for 30 OECD Countries, Energy Policy, 36: 910–918.
- Nazlioglu, S., Kayhan, S. and Adiguzel, U. 2014: Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration, Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality, Energy Sources, Part B, 9: 315–324.
- Oh, W. and Lee, K. 2004: Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: the Case of Korea 1970–1999, Energy Economics, 26: 51–59.
- Payne, J.E. 2009: On the Dynamics of Energy Consumption and Output in the US, Applied Energy, 86: 575–577.
- Sari, R. and Soytas, U. 2004: Disaggregate Energy Consumption, Employment, and Income in Turkey, Energy Economics, 26: 335–344.
- Shiu, A. and Lam, P. 2004: Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China, Energy Policy, 32: 47–54.
- Sica, E. 2005: Climatic Differences and Economic Growth across Italian Provinces: First Empirical Evidence, Quaderni DSEMS, 20-2005.
- Sims, C.A. 1972: Money, Income and Causality, American Economic Review, September: 540-552.
- Soytas¸, U., Sarı, R. and Ozdemir, O. 2001: Energy Consumption and GDP Relation in Turkey: A Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Analysis, Economies and Business in Transition: Facilitating Competitiveness and Change in the Global Environment Proceedings. Global Business and Technology Association, 838–844.
- Soytas, U. and Sari, R. 2003: Energy Consumption and GDP: Causality Relationship in G-7 Countries and Emerging Markets, Energy Economics, 25: 33–37.
- Soytas, U. and Sari, R. 2007: The Relationship between Energy and Production: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry, Energy Economics, 29(6): 1151-1165.
- Vecchione, G. 2011: Economic Growth, Electricity Consumption and Foreign Dependence in Italy between 1963–2007, Energy Sources, Part B, 6: 304–313.
- Yildirim, E. and Aslan, A. 2012: Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus for 17 Highly Developed OECD Countries: Further Evidence Based on Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Tests, Energy Policy, 51: 985–993.
- Yoo, S. 2005: Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Korea, Energy Policy, 33: 1627–1632.
- Yu, S.H. and Choi, J.Y. 1985: The Causal Relationship between Energy and GNP: An International Comparison, Journal of Energy Development, 10: 249–272.
- Zachariadis, T. 2007: Exploring the Relationship between Energy Use and Economic Growth with Bivariate Models: New Evidence from G-7 Countries, Energy Economics, 29: 1233–1253.
Yıl 2016,
Cilt: 9 Sayı: 4, 107 - 119, 31.10.2016
Öz
Kaynakça
- Aktas, C. and Yilmaz, V. 2008: Causal Relationship between Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey, Kocaeli Universitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15: 45–55.
- Altinay, G. and Karagol, E. 2004: Structural Break, Unit Root, and the Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey, Energy Economics, 26 (6), 985–994.
- Altınay, G. and Karagol, E. 2005: Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey, Energy Economics, 27: 849–856.
- Aslan, A. 2014: Causality between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. Energy Sources, Part B, 9: 25–31.
- Bakirtas, T., Karbuz, S. and Bildirici, M. 2000: An Econometric Analysis of Electricity Demand in Turkey, METU Studies in Development, 27 (1-2): 23-34.
- Bozoklu, S. and Yilanci, V. 2013: Energy Consumption and Economic Growth for Selected OECD Countries: Further Evidence from the Granger Causality Test in the Frequency Domain, Energy Policy, 63: 877–881.
- Breitung, J. and Candelon, B. 2001: Testing for Short and Long Run Causality: The Case of the Yield Spread and Economic Growth, Discussion Papers 96, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Breitung, J. and Candelon, B. 2006: Testing for Short and Long-Run Causality: A Frequency Domain Approach, Journal of Econometrics, 132, 363−378.
- Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. 1987: Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing, Econometrica, 55: 251–276.
- Erdal, G., Erdal, H. and Esengun, K. 2008: The Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey, Energy Policy, 36:3838–3842.
- Erol, U. and Yu, E.S.H. 1987: On the Causal Relationship between Energy and Income for Industrialized Countries, Journal of Energy Development, 13: 113–122.
- Fuinhas, J. A. and Marques, A. C. 2012: Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach (1965–2009), Energy Economics, 34: 511–517.
- Geweke, J. 1982: Measurement of Linear Dependence and Feedback between Multiple Time Series, Journal of American Statistical Association, 77, 304–313.
- Granger, C.W.J. 1969: Investigating Causal Relationship by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Econometrica, 37: 424-438.
- Granger, C.W.J. 1986: Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 48: 213-228.
- Halicioglu, F. 2007: Residential Electricity Demand Dynamics in Turkey, Energy Economics, 29: 199–210.
- Hosaya, Y. 1991: The Decomposition and Measurement of the Interdependence between Second-Order Stationary Process, Probability Theoryand Related Fields, 88, 429-444.
- Jobert, T. and Karanfil, F. 2007: Sectoral Energy Consumption by Source and Economic Growth in Turkey, Energy Policy, 35: 5447–5456.
- Jumbe, C.B.L. 2004: Cointegration and Causality between Electricity Consumption and GDP: Empirical Evidence from Malawi, Energy Economics, 26(1): 61-68.
- Karagol, E., Erbaykal, E. and Ertugrul, H. M. 2006: Oil Consumption and GNP Relationship in Turkey: An Empirical Study, International Conference on Human and Economic Resources, Izmir, Turkey, May 24–25, 366–372.
- Karanfil, F. 2008: Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited: Does the Size of Unrecorded Economy Matter?, Energy Policy, 36: 3029–3035.
- Kraft, J. and Kraft, A. 1978: On the Relationship between Energy and GNP, Journal of Energy Development, 3: 401-403.
- Lee, C.C. 2006: The Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP in G 11 Countries Revisited, Energy Policy, 34: 1086–1093.
- Lee, C.C. and Chien, M.S. 2010: Dynamic Modelling of Energy Consumption, Capital Stock and Real Income in G-7 Countries, Energy Economics, 32: 564–581.
- Lise, W. and Van Montfort, K. 2007: Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey: Is There A Cointegration Relationship?, Energy Economics, 29(6): 1166–1178.
- Narayan, P.K. and Smyth, R. 2005: Electricity Consumption, Employment and Real Income in Australia: Evidence from Multivariate Granger Causality Tests, Energy Policy, 33: 1109–1116.
- Narayan, P. K. and Prasad, A. 2008: Electricity Consumption-Real GDP Causality Nexus: Evidence from A Bootstrapped Causality Test for 30 OECD Countries, Energy Policy, 36: 910–918.
- Nazlioglu, S., Kayhan, S. and Adiguzel, U. 2014: Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration, Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality, Energy Sources, Part B, 9: 315–324.
- Oh, W. and Lee, K. 2004: Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: the Case of Korea 1970–1999, Energy Economics, 26: 51–59.
- Payne, J.E. 2009: On the Dynamics of Energy Consumption and Output in the US, Applied Energy, 86: 575–577.
- Sari, R. and Soytas, U. 2004: Disaggregate Energy Consumption, Employment, and Income in Turkey, Energy Economics, 26: 335–344.
- Shiu, A. and Lam, P. 2004: Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China, Energy Policy, 32: 47–54.
- Sica, E. 2005: Climatic Differences and Economic Growth across Italian Provinces: First Empirical Evidence, Quaderni DSEMS, 20-2005.
- Sims, C.A. 1972: Money, Income and Causality, American Economic Review, September: 540-552.
- Soytas¸, U., Sarı, R. and Ozdemir, O. 2001: Energy Consumption and GDP Relation in Turkey: A Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Analysis, Economies and Business in Transition: Facilitating Competitiveness and Change in the Global Environment Proceedings. Global Business and Technology Association, 838–844.
- Soytas, U. and Sari, R. 2003: Energy Consumption and GDP: Causality Relationship in G-7 Countries and Emerging Markets, Energy Economics, 25: 33–37.
- Soytas, U. and Sari, R. 2007: The Relationship between Energy and Production: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry, Energy Economics, 29(6): 1151-1165.
- Vecchione, G. 2011: Economic Growth, Electricity Consumption and Foreign Dependence in Italy between 1963–2007, Energy Sources, Part B, 6: 304–313.
- Yildirim, E. and Aslan, A. 2012: Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus for 17 Highly Developed OECD Countries: Further Evidence Based on Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Tests, Energy Policy, 51: 985–993.
- Yoo, S. 2005: Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Korea, Energy Policy, 33: 1627–1632.
- Yu, S.H. and Choi, J.Y. 1985: The Causal Relationship between Energy and GNP: An International Comparison, Journal of Energy Development, 10: 249–272.
- Zachariadis, T. 2007: Exploring the Relationship between Energy Use and Economic Growth with Bivariate Models: New Evidence from G-7 Countries, Energy Economics, 29: 1233–1253.
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
|---|---|
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 31 Ekim 2016 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 15 Ağustos 2016 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2016 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 4 |
