Araştırma Makalesi
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Reel Döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Üzerindeki Etkisi: Kırılgan Beşli Örneği

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 82 - 95, 25.04.2018
https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.396831

Öz



Bu
çalışmada, kırılgan beşli olarak nitelendirilen ülkelerde dış ticaret, reel
döviz kuru ve ticari açıklık (trade openness) arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli
ilişki, 2000-2014 dönemine ait panel verileri kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır.
Ampirik analiz için, Panel ARDL yöntemi, Granger nedensellik testi ve varyans
ayrıştırma analizi kullanılmıştır. Analizler sonucunda, hem kısa dönemde hem de
uzun dönemde dış ticaret ile reel döviz kuru arasında negatif ve istatiksel
olarak anlamlı bir ilişki mevcuttur. Diğer taraftan dış ticaret ile ticari
açıklık göstergesi arasında pozitif ve istatiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki
olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca, Granger nedensellik testi sonucuna göre
ticari açıklıktan dış ticarete doğru tek yönlü nedensellik vardır. Ama reel
döviz kurundan dış ticarete doğru bir nedensellik yoktur.




Kaynakça

  • Arize, A. C. , Osang, T. ve Slottje, D. J. (2000). Exchange-rate volatility and foreign trade: evidence from thirteen LDC’s. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 18(1), 10–17.
  • Arize, A. C., Osang, T. ve Slottje, D. J. (2008). Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade. International Review of Economics and Finance, 17(1), 33–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2006.01.004
  • Asterious, D., Masatci, K. ve Pilbeam, K. (2016). Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries. Economic Modelling, 58, 133–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.006
  • Auboin, M. ve Ruta, M. (2011). The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a review of economic literature, 1-28, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1955847 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1955847
  • Avsar, V. ve Turkcan, K. (2013). Exchange rate volatility and investment: a panel data cointegration approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), 772–787. Retrieved from http://economics.expertjournals.com/23597704-313/
  • Baek, J. (2014). Exchange rate effects on Korea–U.S. bilateral trade: A new look. Research in Economics, 68(3), 214–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2014.05.002
  • Baum, C. F., Caglayan, M. ve Ozkan, N. (2004). Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.725
  • Bildirici, M. E., & Kayıkçı, F. (2013). Effects of oil production on economic growth in Eurasian countries: Panel ARDL approach. Energy, 49, 156-161.
  • Chit, M. M. ve Judge, A. (2011). Non-linear effect of exchange rate volatility on exports: The role of financial sector development in emerging East Asian economies. International Review of Applied Economics, 25(1), 107–119. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2010.483463
  • Chit,M. M. , Rizov, M. ve Willenbockel, D. (2010). Exchange rate volatility and exports: New empirical evidence from the emerging east Asian economies. World Economy, 33(2), 239–263. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01230.x
  • Çelik, T., Çelik, B., ve Barak, D. (2017). Geçiş ekonomilerinde reel döviz kuru ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Suleyman Demirel University Journal of Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 22(3).
  • Eğilmez, M. (2017). “Türkiye ekonomisi niçin kırılgan beşli arasında?”, https://www.aydinlik.com.tr/mahfi-egilmez-turkiye-ekonomisi-nicin-kirilgan-besli-arasinda-ekonomi-kasim-2017-1, E.T:21.01.2017.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied econometric time series. New York: lowa State University.
  • Ersungur, Ş. M., Doru, Ö. ve Aslan, M. B. (2017). Türkiye’de GSYH ve döviz kuru hareketlerinin cari denge üzerindeki etkisi: var analizi yaklaşımı. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 31(3), 451–461.
  • Fountas, S. ve Aristotelous, K. (2003). Does the exchange rate regime affect export volume? evidence from bilateral exportsin US-UK trade: 1900-98. The Manchester School, 71(1), 51–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00334
  • Granger, C. (1969). Investigating causal relation by econometric models and cross spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, ss:427-438.
  • Hall, S., vd. (2010). Exchange-rate volatility and export performance: Do emerging market economies resemble industrial countries or other developing countries?. Economic Modelling, 27(6), 1514–1521. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.01.014
  • Hayakawa, K. ve Kimura, F. (2009). The effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade in East Asia. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 23(4), 395–406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2009.07.001
  • Karagöz, M. ve Doğan, Ç. (2005). Döviz kuru dış ticaret ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(2), 219–228.
  • Kihangire, D. (2004). The effects of exchange rate variability on exports: evidence from uganda (1988 – 2001). ESRC Oxford, 1-41, http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/it/papers/0505/0505013.pdf
  • Im, K. L., Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, ss: 53–74.
  • Levın, A., Lın, C.F. ve Chu, C-S.J, (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, ss:108, 1-22.
  • Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61:631-652.
  • Morgan Stanley (2013) Research Report “FX Pulse”, (http://www.morganstanley.com/public/GMA_20121212.pdf), E.T:21.01.2018.
  • Özturk, İ. (2006). Exchange rate volatility and trade: a literature survey., International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Vol. 3-1, 85-102.
  • Pasaran, M. H., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R.P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 94, No. 446, ss:621-634.
  • Petek, A. ve Çelik, A. (2017). Türkiye’de enflasyon, döviz kuru, ihracat ve ithalat arasındaki ilişkinin ekonometrik analizi (1990-2015). Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar; Istanbul, 54(626), 69–87.
  • Saatcioğlu, C. ve Karaca, O. (2004). Döviz kuru belirsizliğinin ihracata etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5(2), 183–195.
  • Savvides, A. (1992). Unanticipated exchange rate variability and the growth of ınternational trade. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 3, 446–463.
  • Sercu, P., ve Uppal, R. (2003). Exchange rate volatility and international trade: A general-equilibrium analysis. European Economic Review, 47(3), 429-441.
  • Serenis, D. ve Tsounis N. (2013). Exchange rate volatility and foreign trade: the case for Cyprus and Croatia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5(13), 677–685. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(13)00079-8
  • The Global Economy, http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/index_api.php, (E.T:15.01.208)
  • World Bank, World Developmnet Indicator, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development indicators(E.T:15.01.2018)
  • Wong, H. T. (2017). Exchange rate volatility and bilateral exports of Malaysia to Singapore, China, Japan, the USA and Korea. Empirical Economics, 53(2), 459–492. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1129-x
  • Yücesan, M., Torun, M. ve Kurt, S. (2017). Döviz kuru değişimlerinin dış ticaret üzerine etkileri: türkiye’nin yeni dış ticaret pazarları arayışında seçilmiş ülke grupları üzerine ekonometrik bir analiz. The Journal of International Social Research, 10(52), 1288-1297.
  • Zengin, A. (2007). Reel döviz kuru hareketleri ve dış ticaret fiyatları (Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine ampirik bulgular). C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2(2), 27–41.

Impact of Real Exchange Rate on International Trade: The Case of Fragile Five

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 82 - 95, 25.04.2018
https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.396831

Öz

In this study,
the short and long-term relationship between international trade, real exchange
rate and trade openness in countries that are classified as fragile five is
being investigated using panel data for the period 2000-2014. For empirical
analysis, panel ARDL method, Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis
are used. As a result of analysis, there is a negative and statistically
significant relationship between international trade and real exchange rate in
both short term and long term.  On the
other hand, it is concluded that there is a positive and statistically
significant relationship between international trade and trade openness
indicator. In addition, the  Granger
causality test yield unidirectional causality from trade openness to
trade.  But there is no a causality from
real exchange rate to trade.




Kaynakça

  • Arize, A. C. , Osang, T. ve Slottje, D. J. (2000). Exchange-rate volatility and foreign trade: evidence from thirteen LDC’s. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 18(1), 10–17.
  • Arize, A. C., Osang, T. ve Slottje, D. J. (2008). Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade. International Review of Economics and Finance, 17(1), 33–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2006.01.004
  • Asterious, D., Masatci, K. ve Pilbeam, K. (2016). Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries. Economic Modelling, 58, 133–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.006
  • Auboin, M. ve Ruta, M. (2011). The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a review of economic literature, 1-28, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1955847 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1955847
  • Avsar, V. ve Turkcan, K. (2013). Exchange rate volatility and investment: a panel data cointegration approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), 772–787. Retrieved from http://economics.expertjournals.com/23597704-313/
  • Baek, J. (2014). Exchange rate effects on Korea–U.S. bilateral trade: A new look. Research in Economics, 68(3), 214–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2014.05.002
  • Baum, C. F., Caglayan, M. ve Ozkan, N. (2004). Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.725
  • Bildirici, M. E., & Kayıkçı, F. (2013). Effects of oil production on economic growth in Eurasian countries: Panel ARDL approach. Energy, 49, 156-161.
  • Chit, M. M. ve Judge, A. (2011). Non-linear effect of exchange rate volatility on exports: The role of financial sector development in emerging East Asian economies. International Review of Applied Economics, 25(1), 107–119. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2010.483463
  • Chit,M. M. , Rizov, M. ve Willenbockel, D. (2010). Exchange rate volatility and exports: New empirical evidence from the emerging east Asian economies. World Economy, 33(2), 239–263. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01230.x
  • Çelik, T., Çelik, B., ve Barak, D. (2017). Geçiş ekonomilerinde reel döviz kuru ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Suleyman Demirel University Journal of Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 22(3).
  • Eğilmez, M. (2017). “Türkiye ekonomisi niçin kırılgan beşli arasında?”, https://www.aydinlik.com.tr/mahfi-egilmez-turkiye-ekonomisi-nicin-kirilgan-besli-arasinda-ekonomi-kasim-2017-1, E.T:21.01.2017.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied econometric time series. New York: lowa State University.
  • Ersungur, Ş. M., Doru, Ö. ve Aslan, M. B. (2017). Türkiye’de GSYH ve döviz kuru hareketlerinin cari denge üzerindeki etkisi: var analizi yaklaşımı. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 31(3), 451–461.
  • Fountas, S. ve Aristotelous, K. (2003). Does the exchange rate regime affect export volume? evidence from bilateral exportsin US-UK trade: 1900-98. The Manchester School, 71(1), 51–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00334
  • Granger, C. (1969). Investigating causal relation by econometric models and cross spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, ss:427-438.
  • Hall, S., vd. (2010). Exchange-rate volatility and export performance: Do emerging market economies resemble industrial countries or other developing countries?. Economic Modelling, 27(6), 1514–1521. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.01.014
  • Hayakawa, K. ve Kimura, F. (2009). The effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade in East Asia. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 23(4), 395–406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2009.07.001
  • Karagöz, M. ve Doğan, Ç. (2005). Döviz kuru dış ticaret ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(2), 219–228.
  • Kihangire, D. (2004). The effects of exchange rate variability on exports: evidence from uganda (1988 – 2001). ESRC Oxford, 1-41, http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/it/papers/0505/0505013.pdf
  • Im, K. L., Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, ss: 53–74.
  • Levın, A., Lın, C.F. ve Chu, C-S.J, (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, ss:108, 1-22.
  • Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61:631-652.
  • Morgan Stanley (2013) Research Report “FX Pulse”, (http://www.morganstanley.com/public/GMA_20121212.pdf), E.T:21.01.2018.
  • Özturk, İ. (2006). Exchange rate volatility and trade: a literature survey., International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Vol. 3-1, 85-102.
  • Pasaran, M. H., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R.P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 94, No. 446, ss:621-634.
  • Petek, A. ve Çelik, A. (2017). Türkiye’de enflasyon, döviz kuru, ihracat ve ithalat arasındaki ilişkinin ekonometrik analizi (1990-2015). Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar; Istanbul, 54(626), 69–87.
  • Saatcioğlu, C. ve Karaca, O. (2004). Döviz kuru belirsizliğinin ihracata etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5(2), 183–195.
  • Savvides, A. (1992). Unanticipated exchange rate variability and the growth of ınternational trade. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 3, 446–463.
  • Sercu, P., ve Uppal, R. (2003). Exchange rate volatility and international trade: A general-equilibrium analysis. European Economic Review, 47(3), 429-441.
  • Serenis, D. ve Tsounis N. (2013). Exchange rate volatility and foreign trade: the case for Cyprus and Croatia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5(13), 677–685. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(13)00079-8
  • The Global Economy, http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/index_api.php, (E.T:15.01.208)
  • World Bank, World Developmnet Indicator, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development indicators(E.T:15.01.2018)
  • Wong, H. T. (2017). Exchange rate volatility and bilateral exports of Malaysia to Singapore, China, Japan, the USA and Korea. Empirical Economics, 53(2), 459–492. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1129-x
  • Yücesan, M., Torun, M. ve Kurt, S. (2017). Döviz kuru değişimlerinin dış ticaret üzerine etkileri: türkiye’nin yeni dış ticaret pazarları arayışında seçilmiş ülke grupları üzerine ekonometrik bir analiz. The Journal of International Social Research, 10(52), 1288-1297.
  • Zengin, A. (2007). Reel döviz kuru hareketleri ve dış ticaret fiyatları (Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine ampirik bulgular). C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2(2), 27–41.
Toplam 36 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Doğan Barak 0000-0002-8812-7668

Mustafa Naimoğlu

Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Nisan 2018
Gönderilme Tarihi 19 Şubat 2018
Kabul Tarihi 10 Mart 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Barak, D., & Naimoğlu, M. (2018). Reel Döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Üzerindeki Etkisi: Kırılgan Beşli Örneği. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(2), 82-95. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.396831

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