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Covid-19 Sonrası Türkiye’de Şirket Kârlarının Enflasyona Katkısı

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 109 - 125, 29.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1418545

Öz

Covid-19 pandemisinin ardından dünyada büyük bir yaşam maliyeti krizi yaşanırken, şirket kârları da rekorlar kırmıştır. Tüm dünyada “satıcıların enflasyonu”, “fırsatçıflasyon” gibi kelimeler giderek popüler hale gelmiştir. Türkiye, 2022’de yakın tarihinin en yüksek enflasyonunu yaşarken, çok yakın zamana kadar, bu tartışmalara uzak kalmıştır. Bu çalışma GSYH deflatör ayrıştırma yöntemini kullanarak, Türkiye’de pandemi döneminde yaşanan enflasyonla birim kârdaki gelişmelere ışık tutmaya çalışmıştır. Bildiğimiz kadarıyla çalışma kullandığı yöntem itibariyle Türkiye’de ilk deneme olacaktır. Elde edilen bulgular pandemi döneminde Türkiye’de gerçekleşen enflasyona en yüksek katkının birim kâr artışından geldiğini göstermektedir. Yine bu çerçevede yurtiçi enflasyona en çok katkı veren sektörlerin, imalat sanayi, ulaştırma ve ticaret sektörleri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. GSYH deflatör ayrıştırma yöntemi enflasyonla birim kâr arasında nedensellik ilişkisi hakkında bilgi vermemekle beraber, bulgular Türkiye’de şirketler kesiminin pandemide yaşanan enflasyon dalgasının mağduru olmadığını, aksine süreçten kârlı çıktığını göstermektedir. Şirketler kesiminin pandemide gelirden aldığı pay tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyesine çıkarken, çalışanların aldığı pay tarihi düşük seviyelere gerilemiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Akcigit, U., Chen, W., Diez, F.J., Duval, R., Engler, P., Fan, J., Maggi, C., Tavares, M.M., Schwarz, D. Shibata, I. and Villegas-Sanchez, C. (2021). Rising Corporate Market Power: Emerging Policy Issues. IMF Staff Discussion Note, 01, 1-34
  • Arce, O., Hahn, E. and Koester, G. (2023). How Tit-for-Tat Inflation Can Make Everyone Poorer? European Central Bank, The ECB Blog, Access Adress: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2023/html/ecb.blog.230330~00e522ecb5.en.html
  • BIS (2023). Annual Economic Report-June. Basel: Bank of International Settlement, pp.1-118
  • Binici, M., Centorrino, S., Cevik, S. and Gwon, G. (2022). Here Comes the Change the Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe. IMF Working Paper, 241, 1-42
  • Bivens, J. (2022). Corporate Profits Have Contributed Disproportionately to Inflation. How Should Policymakers Respond? Economic Policy Institute, Access Adress: Corporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation. How should policymakers respond? | Economic Policy Institute (epi.org)
  • Blanchard, O.J. (1986). The Wage Price Spiral. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 101(3), 543-566
  • Boissay, F., De Fiore, F., Igan, D., Pierres Tejada, A. and Rees, D. (2022). Are Major Advanced Economies on the Verge of a Wage-Price Spiral? Bank for International Settlements. BIS Bulletin 53, 1-6
  • Carrière-Swallow, Y., Deb, P., Furceri, D., Jiménez, D. and Ostry, J.D. (2023). Shipping Costs and Inflation. Journal of International Money and Finance. 130(2023), 102771, 1-36
  • Colonna, F., Torrini, R. and Viviano, E. (2023). The profit share and firm mark-up: How to interpret them? Banca D’Italia, Occasional Papers, 770, 1-15
  • Di Giovanni, J., Kalemli-Özcan, Ş., Silva, A. and Yildirim, M.A. (2022). Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, And Inflation. NBER Working Paper Series, 30240, 1-65
  • Duvan, O.B. (2023). 1980’lerden Günümüze: Neoliberal Politikalar Altında Türkiye’nin En Büyük 500 Sanayi Kuruluşunda İstihdam, Verimlilik ve Bölüşümün Seyri. Emek Araştırma Dergisi, 14(24), 391-422
  • Eeckhout, J. (2022). Dominant Firms in the Digital Age. UBS Center Public Paper, 12, 1-30
  • European Commission (2023). European Economic Forecast. Institutional Paper, 200, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, pp.1-194
  • Firat, M. and Hao, O. (2023). Demand vs. Supply Decomposition of Inflation: Cross-Country Evidence with Applications. IMF Working Paper, 205, 1-41
  • Freund, C. (2022). Soaring Demand Is Driving Double-Digit Import Price Inflation in the United States. Peterson Institute for International Economics, Policiy Brief, 12, 1-11
  • Furman, J. (2022). This Inflation Is Demand-Driven and Persistent, Project Syndicate, Access Adress: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/inflation-demand-driven-persistent-by-jason-furman-2022-04
  • Glover, A., Mustre-del-Río, J. and von Ende-Becker, A. (2023). How Much Have Record Corporate Profits Contributed to Recent Inflation? The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 108(1), 23-35
  • Ha, J., Kose, M.A., Ohnsorge F. and Yılmazkuday, H. (2023). What Explains Global Inflation. World Bank Group Policy Research Working Paper, 10648, 1-54
  • Hansen, N.J., Toscani, F. and Zhou, J. (2023). Euro Area Inflation after the Pandemic and Energy Shock: Import Prices, Profits and Wages. IMF Working Paper, 131, 1-21
  • Hayes, C. and Jung, C. (2022). Prices and Profits After the Pandemic. IPPR and Common Wealth, 1-22 Access Adress: Prices and profits after the pandemic | IPPR
  • IMF (2023). Navigating Global Divergences. World Economic Outlook, October. Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-182
  • IMF (2022). Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis. World Economic Outlook, October. Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-166
  • İSO-500 (2023). Türkiye’nin 500 Büyük Sanayi Kuruluşu 2022, İstanbul Sanayi Odası Dergisi, pp.1-215
  • Jung, C. and Hayes, C. (2023). Inflation Profits and Market Power: Towards A New Research and Policy Agenda. IPPR and Common Wealth, 1-29 Access Adress: https://www.ippr.org/publications/inflation-profits-and-market-power
  • Kindleberger, C.P. (2007). Cinnet, Panik ve Çöküş Mali Krizler Tarihi, 1. Basım; İstanbul: Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları
  • Lagarde, C. (2023). Breaking the Persistence of Inflation. Speech at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2023 on “Macroeconomic stabilization in a volatile inflation environment” in Sintra, Portugal, Access Adress: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230627~b8694e47c8.en.html
  • Loecker, J., Eeckhout, J. and Unger, G. (2020). The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135 (2), 561-644
  • Menezes, F.M. and Quiggin, J. (2022). Market Power Amplifies the Price Effects of Demand Shocks, UQ School of Economics, Discussion Paper, 653, 1-8
  • OECD (2023). Economic Outlook. Volume 2023 Issue 1, 113, Paris: OECD Publishing, pp.1-250
  • ONS (2023). The Role of Labour Costs and Profits in UK Inflation: 2010 to 2023. Office for National Statistics, Access Adress: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/theroleoflabourcostsandprofitsinukinflation/2010to2023
  • TURKSTAT (2022). Ulusal Hesaplar Sistemi, Sorularla Resmi İstatistikler Dizisi-12. Yayın no: 4673, Ankara: Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu
  • Weber, I.M. (2021). Could strategic price controls help fight inflation? The Guardian, Access Adress: https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/dec/29/inflation-price-controls-time-we-use-it?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1640776964
  • Weber, I.M., Wasner, E. (2023). Sellers’ Inflation, Profits and Conflict: Why can Large Firms Hike Prices in Emergency? Review of Keynesian Economics, 11(2), 183-213
  • Weber, I.M. (2023). Taking Aim at Sellers’ Inflation, Project Syndicate. Access Adress: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sellers-inflation-diagnosis-accepted-but-old-interest-rate-policies-remain-by-isabella-m-weber-2023-07
  • Yeldan, E., Köse, A.H. and Boratav, K. (2023). Türkiye’de Derinleşen Yapısal Kriz Eğilimi ve Kâr İtilimli Enflasyonun Dinamikleri. İktisat ve Toplum, 158, 8-30

Contribution of Corporate Profits to Inflation in Türkiye after Covid-19

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 109 - 125, 29.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1418545

Öz

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, there was a major cost of living crisis in the world while corporate profits reached historical records. Words such as “sellers’ inflation”, “greedflation” have become increasingly popular all over the world. While Türkiye is experiencing the highest inflation in 2022 in her late history, she remained disconnected with those discussions until very recently. This study tries to shed light on the developments in inflation and unit profits during the pandemic period in Türkiye by using the GDP deflator decomposition method. As far as we know, the study will be the first attempt in Türkiye in terms of the methodology used. The findings show that the highest contribution to inflation in Türkiye during the pandemic period arose from the increase in unit profits. In this framework, it is determined that the sectors that contribute the most to domestic inflation are the manufacturing industry, transportation, and the trade sectors. Although the GDP deflator decomposition method does not provide information on the causality between inflation and unit profits, the findings suggest that the corporate sector in Türkiye cannot be labeled as the victim of the inflation wave during the pandemic, but rather the profiting from the process. The share of income received by the corporate sector in the pandemic reached an all-time high, while the percentage share received by the employee fell to historic lows.

Kaynakça

  • Akcigit, U., Chen, W., Diez, F.J., Duval, R., Engler, P., Fan, J., Maggi, C., Tavares, M.M., Schwarz, D. Shibata, I. and Villegas-Sanchez, C. (2021). Rising Corporate Market Power: Emerging Policy Issues. IMF Staff Discussion Note, 01, 1-34
  • Arce, O., Hahn, E. and Koester, G. (2023). How Tit-for-Tat Inflation Can Make Everyone Poorer? European Central Bank, The ECB Blog, Access Adress: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2023/html/ecb.blog.230330~00e522ecb5.en.html
  • BIS (2023). Annual Economic Report-June. Basel: Bank of International Settlement, pp.1-118
  • Binici, M., Centorrino, S., Cevik, S. and Gwon, G. (2022). Here Comes the Change the Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe. IMF Working Paper, 241, 1-42
  • Bivens, J. (2022). Corporate Profits Have Contributed Disproportionately to Inflation. How Should Policymakers Respond? Economic Policy Institute, Access Adress: Corporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation. How should policymakers respond? | Economic Policy Institute (epi.org)
  • Blanchard, O.J. (1986). The Wage Price Spiral. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 101(3), 543-566
  • Boissay, F., De Fiore, F., Igan, D., Pierres Tejada, A. and Rees, D. (2022). Are Major Advanced Economies on the Verge of a Wage-Price Spiral? Bank for International Settlements. BIS Bulletin 53, 1-6
  • Carrière-Swallow, Y., Deb, P., Furceri, D., Jiménez, D. and Ostry, J.D. (2023). Shipping Costs and Inflation. Journal of International Money and Finance. 130(2023), 102771, 1-36
  • Colonna, F., Torrini, R. and Viviano, E. (2023). The profit share and firm mark-up: How to interpret them? Banca D’Italia, Occasional Papers, 770, 1-15
  • Di Giovanni, J., Kalemli-Özcan, Ş., Silva, A. and Yildirim, M.A. (2022). Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, And Inflation. NBER Working Paper Series, 30240, 1-65
  • Duvan, O.B. (2023). 1980’lerden Günümüze: Neoliberal Politikalar Altında Türkiye’nin En Büyük 500 Sanayi Kuruluşunda İstihdam, Verimlilik ve Bölüşümün Seyri. Emek Araştırma Dergisi, 14(24), 391-422
  • Eeckhout, J. (2022). Dominant Firms in the Digital Age. UBS Center Public Paper, 12, 1-30
  • European Commission (2023). European Economic Forecast. Institutional Paper, 200, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, pp.1-194
  • Firat, M. and Hao, O. (2023). Demand vs. Supply Decomposition of Inflation: Cross-Country Evidence with Applications. IMF Working Paper, 205, 1-41
  • Freund, C. (2022). Soaring Demand Is Driving Double-Digit Import Price Inflation in the United States. Peterson Institute for International Economics, Policiy Brief, 12, 1-11
  • Furman, J. (2022). This Inflation Is Demand-Driven and Persistent, Project Syndicate, Access Adress: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/inflation-demand-driven-persistent-by-jason-furman-2022-04
  • Glover, A., Mustre-del-Río, J. and von Ende-Becker, A. (2023). How Much Have Record Corporate Profits Contributed to Recent Inflation? The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 108(1), 23-35
  • Ha, J., Kose, M.A., Ohnsorge F. and Yılmazkuday, H. (2023). What Explains Global Inflation. World Bank Group Policy Research Working Paper, 10648, 1-54
  • Hansen, N.J., Toscani, F. and Zhou, J. (2023). Euro Area Inflation after the Pandemic and Energy Shock: Import Prices, Profits and Wages. IMF Working Paper, 131, 1-21
  • Hayes, C. and Jung, C. (2022). Prices and Profits After the Pandemic. IPPR and Common Wealth, 1-22 Access Adress: Prices and profits after the pandemic | IPPR
  • IMF (2023). Navigating Global Divergences. World Economic Outlook, October. Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-182
  • IMF (2022). Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis. World Economic Outlook, October. Washington: International Monetary Fund, pp.1-166
  • İSO-500 (2023). Türkiye’nin 500 Büyük Sanayi Kuruluşu 2022, İstanbul Sanayi Odası Dergisi, pp.1-215
  • Jung, C. and Hayes, C. (2023). Inflation Profits and Market Power: Towards A New Research and Policy Agenda. IPPR and Common Wealth, 1-29 Access Adress: https://www.ippr.org/publications/inflation-profits-and-market-power
  • Kindleberger, C.P. (2007). Cinnet, Panik ve Çöküş Mali Krizler Tarihi, 1. Basım; İstanbul: Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları
  • Lagarde, C. (2023). Breaking the Persistence of Inflation. Speech at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2023 on “Macroeconomic stabilization in a volatile inflation environment” in Sintra, Portugal, Access Adress: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230627~b8694e47c8.en.html
  • Loecker, J., Eeckhout, J. and Unger, G. (2020). The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135 (2), 561-644
  • Menezes, F.M. and Quiggin, J. (2022). Market Power Amplifies the Price Effects of Demand Shocks, UQ School of Economics, Discussion Paper, 653, 1-8
  • OECD (2023). Economic Outlook. Volume 2023 Issue 1, 113, Paris: OECD Publishing, pp.1-250
  • ONS (2023). The Role of Labour Costs and Profits in UK Inflation: 2010 to 2023. Office for National Statistics, Access Adress: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/theroleoflabourcostsandprofitsinukinflation/2010to2023
  • TURKSTAT (2022). Ulusal Hesaplar Sistemi, Sorularla Resmi İstatistikler Dizisi-12. Yayın no: 4673, Ankara: Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu
  • Weber, I.M. (2021). Could strategic price controls help fight inflation? The Guardian, Access Adress: https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/dec/29/inflation-price-controls-time-we-use-it?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1640776964
  • Weber, I.M., Wasner, E. (2023). Sellers’ Inflation, Profits and Conflict: Why can Large Firms Hike Prices in Emergency? Review of Keynesian Economics, 11(2), 183-213
  • Weber, I.M. (2023). Taking Aim at Sellers’ Inflation, Project Syndicate. Access Adress: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sellers-inflation-diagnosis-accepted-but-old-interest-rate-policies-remain-by-isabella-m-weber-2023-07
  • Yeldan, E., Köse, A.H. and Boratav, K. (2023). Türkiye’de Derinleşen Yapısal Kriz Eğilimi ve Kâr İtilimli Enflasyonun Dinamikleri. İktisat ve Toplum, 158, 8-30
Toplam 35 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Kalkınma Ekonomisi - Makro, Para Politikası
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Osman Berke Duvan 0000-0002-3711-8454

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Mart 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 12 Ocak 2024
Kabul Tarihi 16 Şubat 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Duvan, O. B. (2024). Contribution of Corporate Profits to Inflation in Türkiye after Covid-19. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 8(1), 109-125. https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1418545

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