Öz
Bu çalışmada, son yıllarda sıkça tartışılan döviz kuru rejimlerindeki “iki kutupluluk teorisi”nin gelişmekte olan ülkeler açısından değerlendirmesi yapılacaktır. Bu hipoteze göre, sermaye hareketlerinin serbestleşmesi ile birlikte ülkeler sabit döviz kuru veya dalgalı döviz kuru arasında tercih yapmak durumundadırlar. Ara rejimler ise devam ettirilemez. Bu hipotez gelişmiş ülkeler açısından bakıldığında doğrulanabilir. Günümüzde gelişmiş ülkeler ya parasal birlik ülkeleridir veya dalgalı kur uygulamaktadırlar. Ancak gelişmekte olan ülkeler gizli veya açık ara rejimleri uygulamaya devam etmektedirler. Bu çalışmada gelişmekte olan ülkeler kategorisindeki yirmi beş ülkenin 1973 sonrası döviz kuru tercihleri incelenmiştir. Bu ülkeler finansal entegrasyon ile birlikte döviz kuru rejimlerinde büyük ölçüde dalgalı kuru tercihe yönelmişlerdir. Ancak bu ülkeler gerek ekonomik ve finansal özellikleri gerekse “asli günah” ve “dalgalanma korkusu” nedeniyle, ara rejimleri uygulamaya devam etmektedirler.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Bailliu J., J. Mullay (2003), “Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets”, Bank Of Canada Review, Winter 2002–2003, s. 17–27.
- Barro, R., D.B. Gordon (1983), “Rules, Discretion, and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.12, No.1, ss. 101–121.
- Bordo R., M. Flandreau (2001), “Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, And Globalization”, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No: 8584.
- Bordo R., A. Schwartz (1997), “Monetary Policy Regimes and Economic Performance: The Historical Record”, NBER Working Papers Series, No: 6201.
- Bordo, M.D. (2003), “Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective”, NBER Working Papers, Working Paper No: 9654.
- Bordo, Michael (2004), “Exchange Rate Regimes for the Twenty–First Century: An Historical Perspective”, İçinde: Exchange Rate Regimes Past, Present and Future, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Working Papers 92.
- Bubula, Okter-Robe (2002), “The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes since 1990; Evidence from De Facto Policies”, IMF Working Papers, 155 September.
- Calvo, Guillermo, Carmen Reinhart (2002), “Fear of Floating”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol: 117; 2, ss: 379–408.
- Christl, Josef, Just Christian (2004), “Regional Monetary Arrangements - Are Currency Unions the Way Forward?”, İçinde: Exchange Rate Regimes Past, Present and Future, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Working Papers 92.
- Edward S., M. Savastano (1999), “Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need To Know?”, NBER Working Papers, Working Paper No: 7228.
- Eichengreen B., R. Hausmann (1999), “Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility”, NBER Working Papers, Working Paper No: 7418.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. (1999), “No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times”, NBER Working Papers, Working Paper No: 7338.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A (2003), “Experience Of And Lessons From Exchange Rate Regimes In Emerging Economies”, NBER Working Paper Series, October.
- Friedman, M. (1953), “The Case for Flexible Exchange Rate”, İçinde: Essays on Positive Economics, Chicago University Press, 1953: 205–227
- Ghosh A.R., A. Gulde, H.C. Wolf (2003), Exchange Rate Regimes, Choice and Consequences, The MIT Press London.
- Goldstein M. (2002), Managed Floating Plus, Institute for International Economics, Washington.
- Areaer, Annual Report on Exchange Arrangement and Exchange Restrictions, IMF, 1973 ve sonrası yıllar.
- Levy-Yeyati, F. Sturzenegge (2003), “To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth”, American Economic Review, Vol: 93, Iss: 4, s. 1173–1193.
- Levy-Yeyati, E.L. - F. Sturzenegger (2005), “Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds vs. Words.”, Europan Economic Review, Vol. 49, Iss. 6, s, 1603–1635.
- Mundell R. (1961), “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas”, American Economic Review, Vol. 51, Iss. 4.
- Fleming, M. (1962), “Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Under Floating Exchange Rates”, IMF Staff Papers, 9.
- Obstfeld, M., K. Rogoff (1995), “The Mirage ofFixed Exchange Rates”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol: 9, Iss.4, s. 73–96.
- Reinhart C., K. Rogoff (2004), “The Modern History Of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Feb., Vol. 119, Iss. 1, s. 1–49.
- Williamson, J. (2000), Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option, Institute for International Economics, Washington.
Öz
Bu çalışmada, son yıllarda sıkça tartışılan döviz kuru rejimlerindeki “iki kutupluluk teorisi”nin gelişmekte olan ülkeler açısından değerlendirmesi yapılacaktır. Bu hipoteze göre, sermaye hareketlerinin serbestleşmesi ile birlikte ülkeler sabit döviz kuru veya dalgalı döviz kuru arasında tercih yapmak durumundadırlar. Ara rejimler ise devam ettirilemez. Bu hipotez gelişmiş ülkeler açısından bakıldığında doğrulanabilir. Günümüzde gelişmiş ülkeler ya parasal birlik ülkeleridir veya dalgalı kur uygulamaktadırlar. Ancak gelişmekte olan ülkeler gizli veya açık ara rejimleri uygulamaya devam etmektedirler. Bu çalışmada gelişmekte olan ülkeler kategorisindeki yirmi beş ülkenin 1973 sonrası döviz kuru tercihleri incelenmiştir. Bu ülkeler finansal entegrasyon ile birlikte döviz kuru rejimlerinde büyük ölçüde dalgalı kuru tercihe yönelmişlerdir. Ancak bu ülkeler gerek ekonomik ve finansal özellikleri gerekse “asli günah” ve “dalgalanma korkusu” nedeniyle, ara rejimleri uygulamaya devam etmektedirler.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Bailliu J., J. Mullay (2003), “Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets”, Bank Of Canada Review, Winter 2002–2003, s. 17–27.
- Barro, R., D.B. Gordon (1983), “Rules, Discretion, and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.12, No.1, ss. 101–121.
- Bordo R., M. Flandreau (2001), “Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, And Globalization”, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No: 8584.
- Bordo R., A. Schwartz (1997), “Monetary Policy Regimes and Economic Performance: The Historical Record”, NBER Working Papers Series, No: 6201.
- Bordo, M.D. (2003), “Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective”, NBER Working Papers, Working Paper No: 9654.
- Bordo, Michael (2004), “Exchange Rate Regimes for the Twenty–First Century: An Historical Perspective”, İçinde: Exchange Rate Regimes Past, Present and Future, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Working Papers 92.
- Bubula, Okter-Robe (2002), “The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes since 1990; Evidence from De Facto Policies”, IMF Working Papers, 155 September.
- Calvo, Guillermo, Carmen Reinhart (2002), “Fear of Floating”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol: 117; 2, ss: 379–408.
- Christl, Josef, Just Christian (2004), “Regional Monetary Arrangements - Are Currency Unions the Way Forward?”, İçinde: Exchange Rate Regimes Past, Present and Future, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Working Papers 92.
- Edward S., M. Savastano (1999), “Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need To Know?”, NBER Working Papers, Working Paper No: 7228.
- Eichengreen B., R. Hausmann (1999), “Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility”, NBER Working Papers, Working Paper No: 7418.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. (1999), “No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times”, NBER Working Papers, Working Paper No: 7338.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A (2003), “Experience Of And Lessons From Exchange Rate Regimes In Emerging Economies”, NBER Working Paper Series, October.
- Friedman, M. (1953), “The Case for Flexible Exchange Rate”, İçinde: Essays on Positive Economics, Chicago University Press, 1953: 205–227
- Ghosh A.R., A. Gulde, H.C. Wolf (2003), Exchange Rate Regimes, Choice and Consequences, The MIT Press London.
- Goldstein M. (2002), Managed Floating Plus, Institute for International Economics, Washington.
- Areaer, Annual Report on Exchange Arrangement and Exchange Restrictions, IMF, 1973 ve sonrası yıllar.
- Levy-Yeyati, F. Sturzenegge (2003), “To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth”, American Economic Review, Vol: 93, Iss: 4, s. 1173–1193.
- Levy-Yeyati, E.L. - F. Sturzenegger (2005), “Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds vs. Words.”, Europan Economic Review, Vol. 49, Iss. 6, s, 1603–1635.
- Mundell R. (1961), “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas”, American Economic Review, Vol. 51, Iss. 4.
- Fleming, M. (1962), “Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Under Floating Exchange Rates”, IMF Staff Papers, 9.
- Obstfeld, M., K. Rogoff (1995), “The Mirage ofFixed Exchange Rates”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol: 9, Iss.4, s. 73–96.
- Reinhart C., K. Rogoff (2004), “The Modern History Of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Feb., Vol. 119, Iss. 1, s. 1–49.
- Williamson, J. (2000), Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option, Institute for International Economics, Washington.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 1 Aralık 2008 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 12 Aralık 2014 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2008 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 8 |
