Research Article
Year 2019,
Volume: 20 Issue: 3, 40 - 59, 17.12.2019
Abstract
Sanayi devrimi, üretimde enerjiye bağımlılığı arttıran pek çok gelişmeye
öncülük eden dönüşümü sağlamıştır. Bu dönemde giderek artan enerji talebi,
yüksek verimliliğe sahip petrol ve türevleri tarafından karşılanmıştır. Sınırlı
rezervlere sahip petrol talebinin gün geçtikçe artması, fiyat şoklarının ortaya
çıkmasına neden olmuştur. Bu şoklar ithalatçı ülkeler açısından, enflasyon,
cari açık ve ekonomik büyümede ve dış ticaret dengesinde daralma gibi birçok
olumsuz etkilere neden olmuştur. Çalışmada, petrol fiyatlarında ortaya çıkan
yapısal şokların Türkiye ekonomisinde oluşturduğu makroekonomik etkilerin
incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla, 2005: 01-2018: 07 dönemine ait brent tipi
ham petrol fiyatları, cari işlemler hesabı, enerji ithalatı, işsizlik oranı,
sanayi üretim endeksi ve enflasyon oranlarının aylık verileri kullanılarak yapısal
VAR (SVAR) analizi yapılmıştır. Yapısal VAR analizi sonucunda elde edilen
yapısal etki tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrıştırmasına göre, petrol
fiyatlarında ortaya çıkan yapısal bir şok piyasada en çok sanayi üretim endeksi
üzerinde etki oluşturmaktadır. Sanayi üretim endeksi petrol fiyatlarında ortaya
çıkan yapısal şoka 10 dönemden fazla süren negatif tepki vermektedir. Petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen bu yapısal şok sanayi
üretim endeksinde meydana gelen değişikliklerin ilk dönem %44’ünü açıklarken,
onuncu dönemde bu oran %25 seviyesine düşmektedir.
Supporting Institution
Sivas Cumhuriyet Ünivarsitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri (CÜBAP)
Project Number
F-599
References
- Abiona, O. (2015) Linking Historical Oil Price Volatility and Growth: Investment and Trade Dynamics, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(2), 598-611.Akinleye, S. O. and Ekpo, S. (2013). Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria, Economia Mexicana Nueva Epoca, 2, 565-624. Aktaş, E., Özenç, Ç. ve Arıca, F. (2010). The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics, MPRA Paper https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8658/1/MPRA_paper_8658.pdf, Access of Date: 26.05.2019.Allegret, J.-P., Mignon, V. and Sallenave, A. (2014). Oil Price Shocks and Global Imbalances: Lessons from a Model with Trade and Financial Interdependencies, CEPII Working Paper, 1-29.Amaiquema, J. R. P. and Amaiquema, A. R. P (2017). Consequences of Oil and Food Price Shocks on the Ecuadorian Economy, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(3), 146-151.Blanchard, O. J. and Gali, J. (2008). The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?, http://www.crei.cat/wp-content/uploads/users/pages/bgoil08wp.pdf, Access of Date: 26.05.2019.Bouznit, M., & Pablo-Romero, M. D. P. (2016). CO2 Emission and Economic Growth in Algeria. Energy Policy, 96, 93-104.Chen, D., Chen, S. and Härdle, W. K. (2015). The Influence of Oil Price Shocks on China’s Macro-Economy: A Perspective of International Trade, Journal of Governance and Regulation, 4(1), 178-189.Crespo, R. J. and Zambrano, J. A. (2018). Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks in Venezuela, University of Bristol Discussion Paper, 18/703.Dias, F. C. (2013). Oil Price Shocks and Their Effects on Economic Activity and Prices: An Application for Portugal, Banco de Portugal Economic Bulletin, 39-48.Eastwood, R. K. (1992). Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks, Oxford Economic Papers, 44(3), 403-425.Güneş, S., Gürel, S. P., & Cambazoğlu, B. (2013). Dış Ticaret Hadleri, Dünya Petrol Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru İlişkisi, Yapısal VAR Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 9(20), 1-17.Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II, The Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228-248.Kablamacı, B. (2011). Petrol ve Ekonomi, Derin Yayınları, İstanbul.Kose, N. and Baimaganbetov, S. (2015). The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Kazakhstan Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(4), 1058-1064.Mehrara, M. and Mohaghegh, M. (2011). Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Oil Exporting Countries: A Panel VAR Study, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(21), 288-295.Rotimi, M. E. and Ngalawa, H. (2017). Oil Price Shocks and Economic Performance in Africa’s Oil Exporting Countries, Economica, 13(5), 169-188.Schubert, S. F. (2013). Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Their Impact on the Current Account, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 18, 316-337.Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Rasoulinezhad, E. and Yoshino, N. (2017). Trade Linkages and Transmission of Oil Price Fluctuations in a Model Incorporating Monetary Variables, ADBI Working Paper Series, N.777.Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44.İnternet Kaynaklarıhttp://politikaakademisi.org/2014/07/18/hollanda-hastaligi-nedir/
Year 2019,
Volume: 20 Issue: 3, 40 - 59, 17.12.2019
Abstract
Project Number
F-599
References
- Abiona, O. (2015) Linking Historical Oil Price Volatility and Growth: Investment and Trade Dynamics, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(2), 598-611.Akinleye, S. O. and Ekpo, S. (2013). Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria, Economia Mexicana Nueva Epoca, 2, 565-624. Aktaş, E., Özenç, Ç. ve Arıca, F. (2010). The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics, MPRA Paper https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8658/1/MPRA_paper_8658.pdf, Access of Date: 26.05.2019.Allegret, J.-P., Mignon, V. and Sallenave, A. (2014). Oil Price Shocks and Global Imbalances: Lessons from a Model with Trade and Financial Interdependencies, CEPII Working Paper, 1-29.Amaiquema, J. R. P. and Amaiquema, A. R. P (2017). Consequences of Oil and Food Price Shocks on the Ecuadorian Economy, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(3), 146-151.Blanchard, O. J. and Gali, J. (2008). The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?, http://www.crei.cat/wp-content/uploads/users/pages/bgoil08wp.pdf, Access of Date: 26.05.2019.Bouznit, M., & Pablo-Romero, M. D. P. (2016). CO2 Emission and Economic Growth in Algeria. Energy Policy, 96, 93-104.Chen, D., Chen, S. and Härdle, W. K. (2015). The Influence of Oil Price Shocks on China’s Macro-Economy: A Perspective of International Trade, Journal of Governance and Regulation, 4(1), 178-189.Crespo, R. J. and Zambrano, J. A. (2018). Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks in Venezuela, University of Bristol Discussion Paper, 18/703.Dias, F. C. (2013). Oil Price Shocks and Their Effects on Economic Activity and Prices: An Application for Portugal, Banco de Portugal Economic Bulletin, 39-48.Eastwood, R. K. (1992). Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks, Oxford Economic Papers, 44(3), 403-425.Güneş, S., Gürel, S. P., & Cambazoğlu, B. (2013). Dış Ticaret Hadleri, Dünya Petrol Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru İlişkisi, Yapısal VAR Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 9(20), 1-17.Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II, The Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228-248.Kablamacı, B. (2011). Petrol ve Ekonomi, Derin Yayınları, İstanbul.Kose, N. and Baimaganbetov, S. (2015). The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Kazakhstan Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(4), 1058-1064.Mehrara, M. and Mohaghegh, M. (2011). Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Oil Exporting Countries: A Panel VAR Study, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(21), 288-295.Rotimi, M. E. and Ngalawa, H. (2017). Oil Price Shocks and Economic Performance in Africa’s Oil Exporting Countries, Economica, 13(5), 169-188.Schubert, S. F. (2013). Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Their Impact on the Current Account, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 18, 316-337.Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Rasoulinezhad, E. and Yoshino, N. (2017). Trade Linkages and Transmission of Oil Price Fluctuations in a Model Incorporating Monetary Variables, ADBI Working Paper Series, N.777.Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44.İnternet Kaynaklarıhttp://politikaakademisi.org/2014/07/18/hollanda-hastaligi-nedir/
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Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Economics |
| Journal Section | Araştırma Makalesi |
| Authors | |
| Project Number | F-599 |
| Publication Date | December 17, 2019 |
| Submission Date | September 18, 2019 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2019 Volume: 20 Issue: 3 |
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